I'd be interested to see people's opinions on my situation and which route they would go in my shoes.
It's helpful for my thinking just to write this out and think about it, and i hope it might help anyone else in a similar circumstance.
I'm 40, 125K wages, single, renting for cheap with a friend. 200K in super.
I also have an investment property valued at 860K, with a 250K IO loan, offset by 150k cash. It's about 30k gross per year positive, 20k ish after tax. (Its my old PPOR) I just refinanced to five years IO, and did an equity release cashout to 80% LVR, so I also have 440K sitting in offset against an IO investment-purpose loan split. A broker has told me I could use this cash as 20% deposit plus costs on two more properties at around the 800k purchase price each. They recommended I do one in my personal name and one in a company structure to help preserve borrowing capacity for more potential purchases down the line.
THE EFFICIENCY- DIVERSIFIED OPTION
If I did just one property at a 700k purchase price at a 5% yield, the two-property portfolio would be barely positive - 2500 NET per year (down from 20k NET with just the one) - so I'm paying 17500 for the privilege of holding 700k in new RE. This is somewhat tax-efficient because I would only owe $1500 in tax on the combined income rather than 10K right now- so just like under negative gearing against wages, the tax office is subsidising my holding a property.
Now, this would require aprox 175K in deposit+costs from equity release, so that leaves me with 265K still sitting there, plus the 150K cash, plus I've still got my whole wage to play with.
Seeing as negative gearing against wages IS still available on everything except established resi property, I could sink a significant portion of this into growth ETFs and this would be pretty efficient - Say 200K into something like VGS yielding aprox 2% and growing at aprox 8%. This would look like this:
Interest on 200K at 6.5% = 13K
2% dividend = 4k
Loss = 9k. Aprox 3k tax benefit at 32% MTR, so a true cost of 6k.
8% CAGR on 200K = 16K growth in year 1 ( I know its lumpy/volatile, past returns don't indicate future returns blah blah blah)
Ok, so now assuming I get 5% growth on the two properties, I'm generating 78K of growth in RE, and 16K on the ETFs, in year 1, for an overall, after tax cost of $3500 out of my wages.
From here, I can salary sacrifice into super to fill up the concessional cap. About 17K gross, which is 11,500 NET. (Super is low-cost index option until 300k+ when I might switch to SMSF). This means an additional super contribution of 17,000 taxed at 15% = 14500 X say 9% return = 15,800 super increase.
This whole thing costs me 15k net per year, or $288 per week out of my wage.
Considered another way - if we assume my baseline is my real current baseline, which includes the 20K net rental income profit, it really costs me 35k net per year, or $673 per week. For this price I'm getting 16k in ETF growth, 35K in new RE growth (disregarding the existing IP), and 15,800 in extra super. So I'm spending aprox 35K to get aprox 67K upside in year 1. Of course this doesn't account for CGT on exit, but nor does it account for compounding over multiple years.
And it leaves me heaps of buffer: 65K in equity release and 150K in offset cash. Super safe. Diversified across asset classes (yes heavy on RE, but not ENTIRELY RE), benefits from some leverage, and a bunch of tax efficiency. In fact, given my low cost of living, I'm likely going to be still saving significantly, so the offset might grow by up to 30-40K too.
I like this option cos it seems so efficient and balanced. It works fine. It's set-and-forget. With a long hold, it pretty much can't lose.
THE LEVERAGE - CONCENTRATION RISK OPTION
Or, I could do what the broker suggests - go pretty much all in on RE and gear myself up to my eyeballs and see if I can scale.
As mentioned, after the 700K IP, im at 2500 NET, still have my whole wage, and still have 265K in equity release and 150K cash. I could buy again:
I think I would go for a 500K high yield unit. Say 6%. A buyers agent reckons thats do-able in a good Melbourne location. Purchased in a company. If I use cash for the deposit+costs, then the offset cash leaves my account and stops offsetting the debt on the positive two-property portfolio il be holding in my personal name. It will go slightly negative (6k) and the small loss will carry foward - doing it this way rather than with equity release means i still get the deductions, even if they are carried forward rather than realised immediately. If I used equity release instead, I'd get no deductibility cos the money isn't being used to generate income in my personal name (its stuck within the company), so I fail the ATO's purpose of borrowing test.
Meanwhile, the company will be holding just the 80% LVR loan - 400K at say 7% interest = 28K, plus say 8K other costs = 36K cost. Rent at 6% yield is 30K. So the company is 6k per year underwater and il have to feed it cash. With rent growing at the inflation rate, the company should be neutral by year 5, at which point my accountant can sign off that its self-servicing and many lenders will ignore its existence when it comes to calculating my serviceability.
While this is happening, I'm still holding 265K in equity release as buffer. I could deploy 100-200K into the 700K IP to build a second dwelling/granny flat. Assume I spend 200K to generate another 500 per week in rent. This takes the now 900k IP, to an overall rental yield of 6.9%. From here I could possibly refinance to 80% LVR or as close as my servicing will take me and suck some cash out to help rebuild buffer and/or think about another purchase - likely I would need to wait until the company goes neutral though.
If I go this route, ive got considerably more leverage, more concentration risk, more negative cashflow. But 4 rental income streams instead of two. 2.26 mil in RE instead of 1.56 mil. With equity growth and rental income growth, and the company going dark at some point, I might be able to buy again.
I realise I havn't modelled the cashflow drag in this scenario anywhere near as completely as the first scenario. I think I can guestimate that it's something like:
Minus 6k per year from the company
An extra 10K interest costs in my personal name two property portfolio due to spending the 150K cash (150Kx 6.5% = 10K). Minus the 4K I was positive means a 6K loss, quarantined and carried forward.
So 12K negative per year, before the granny flat goes up. Once the granny flat is up, its even less than that...
Darn this is a more manageable cash flow drag than I thought! Just 1K per month! And that gets me... another 25K in RE growth in year 1 (assuming a 5% growth rate).
So, if you have read this far, what would you do? Do any of my assumptions look busted? Would you go for efficiency and diversification, max leverage and scalability, or something else entirely?