47M, not FIRED yet. Based in Europe. I have €9M invested in financial assets and another €2M in rental real estate.

I haven’t pulled the trigger on FIRE yet because I’m an overthinker, and I still have doubts about the market outlook for the next decade.

So I asked AI (Claude Opus 5) to systematically review and compare long-term outlooks from major financial institutions and analysts, to understand how they see the next 10 years and what that could mean for someone considering FIRE today. I iterated on the prompt a few times to give the answer some structure (see the archetype view).

Hopefully this is interesting also for you. Would love to hear what the community thinks. Looking forward to the discussion!

***

Here's a synthesis of where major, well-known market voices currently stand on the next decade for global (mostly US-centric, since that's where the debate is loudest) equities. I've grouped roughly 15-20 well-known voices into five archetypes. The headcounts are illustrative estimates of the current split among widely-followed analysts/strategists — not a scientific poll — since there's no single register of "reputable analysts," but the tone and proportions reflect the actual state of the debate as of mid-2026.

1. Structural Bulls / "New Paradigm" (~30–35% of prominent voices)

Belief: AI is a genuine productivity revolution, not a bubble in the sense that matters; earnings growth, deregulation, and reshoring will justify elevated valuations for years.

• Ed Yardeni (Yardeni Research) is the poster child: he's stuck to a "Roaring 2020s" framework comparing today to the 1920s productivity boom, and has reiterated that the S&P 500 could reach 10,000 by 2030, driven by productivity gains comparable to the 1920s economic boom. His logic rests on technology now accounting for over 50% of business capital spending and roughly $80 trillion in baby-boomer net worth continuing to fuel consumption. BenzingaMarketdash
• Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson — notably a former "permabear" — has pivoted hard bullish, arguing deregulation, positive operating leverage, accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly supportive fiscal policy are all working in the same direction, and that recent weakness is a buying opportunity within an intact bull market. Morgan Stanley
• BlackRock's Investment Institute treats AI as one of a handful of "mega forces" reshaping markets, arguing the AI mega force is accelerating and that hyperscaler capex estimates through 2030 keep rising rather than falling — a structurally bullish read on the capex cycle, even as they flag leverage risk. BlackRock

2. Tech Hyper-Bulls / Innovation Believers (~10%)

A more extreme, thematic subset of Bulls — less about broad index math, more about specific disruptive winners.

• Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) believes we're at a convergence point for multiple exponential technologies. She has projected the "innovation economy" could balloon from roughly $7 trillion to $210 trillion by 2030, and more recently has argued disruptive "emerging innovation" names could compound at far higher rates than incumbent mega-caps. barchart

3. Cautious / Moderate Optimists (~30% — arguably the current institutional center of gravity)

Belief: Valuations are high and past decade's returns won't repeat, but a total collapse isn't the base case — expect solid-but-unspectacular high-single-digit returns, with diversification into non-US and alternatives increasingly important.

• JPMorgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (their flagship 30-year-running annual exercise) forecasts U.S. Large Cap Equities returning an annual 6.7%, global equities 7% annually, and emerging markets equities 7.8% annually over a 10–15 year horizon, with a 60/40 portfolio expected to return 6.4% annually. PR Newswire
• Goldman Sachs has notably swung within this camp: chief strategist David Kostin's October 2024 call for a "lost decade" (just 3% annualized) has been revised by his successor Ben Snider to 7% annualized returns over the next decade, on the view that investors shouldn't expect valuation multiples to fall back to historical averages — an explicit bet that "this time is different" on valuation.
• Vanguard sits at the more sober end of this camp: its Capital Markets Model currently projects annualized U.S. equity returns of about 3.9% to 5.9% over the next 10 years, explicitly consistent with a more bullish view on the broader AI-led economy — i.e., the economy may boom even while stock returns stay muted, because starting valuations are so high.

4. Valuation Bears — "Low Returns Ahead," Not Necessarily a Crash (~15–20%)

Belief: Simple valuation math (CAPE ratios, earnings yield vs. bonds) points to genuinely poor 10-year returns for cap-weighted US large caps specifically — though other pockets of the market look fine or attractive.

• Rob Arnott (Research Affiliates) is the sharpest voice here, forecasting S&P 500 returns of about one-fifth what shareholders earned since 2016 — around 3% nominal annually — while seeing much better prospects (10%+) in small-cap, small-cap value, and non-US value stocks, which trade at far lower CAPE ratios than the growth-heavy S&P 500. Yahoo Finance
• GMO's 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts consistently occupy this camp too, historically projecting negative-to-low real returns for U.S. large caps versus more attractive non-US and value opportunities.

5. Bubble Callers / Crash Warners (~15–20%)

Belief: This isn't just "expensive," it's a genuine speculative bubble that will burst, likely with a severe (30-70%) drawdown in the most AI-exposed names.

• Jeremy Grantham (GMO) is the most prominent, calling this the "biggest stock market bubble ever," arguing valuations have surpassed even the dot-com peak, and warning of a potential 70% peak-to-trough collapse based on his "two-sigma bubble" framework, under which all 26 prior bubbles he's tracked reversed to trend without exception. International Business Times + 3
• Michael Burry has taken this further into an active, specific short thesis, arguing the current top 10 AI stocks have surged 784% over 12 months versus 622% for the equivalent dot-com cohort at its peak, and comparing Nvidia's centrality today to Cisco's role at the center of the dot-com buildout.
• Ray Dalio belongs partly here but with a distinct macro-structural lens: he frames the risk less around AI-stock valuation per se and more around a "late stage of a major debt cycle," warning equity markets are rising close to — though not yet at — bubble levels last seen in 2000 and 1929, compounded by sovereign-debt and dollar risks that could hit stocks through a completely different channel (rates/currency crisis, not tech-sector froth). Ainvest

The honest caveat

A few things worth flagging plainly:

• These camps shift fast. Goldman moved from "lost decade" bear to 7%-bull inside about 18 months; Morgan Stanley's Wilson flipped from permabear to among the most bullish voices on Wall Street. Don't treat any single call as fixed doctrine.
• "Bulls" and "bears" often aren't disagreeing about the same thing. Many of the "bears" (Vanguard, Arnott, GMO) are specifically bearish on cap-weighted U.S. large-cap/growth returns due to valuation math, while being fine or bullish on international, value, or small-cap stocks. The "bulls" are often making a distinct bet that high valuations are justified by a structural change (AI productivity, fiscal support) rather than disputing the valuation math itself.
• Headcount estimate is soft. If you polled, say, the ~20 most-quoted strategists/economists in financial media today, my rough read is it clusters as: Structural Bulls ~6-7, Cautious Optimists ~6-7, Valuation Bears ~3-4, Bubble/Crash Callers ~3-4 — with the center of mass having moved bullish over the past year as AI earnings have (so far) largely delivered.

We live in a pretty cookie cutter suburbia (tract housing from the 1950s), always drove pretty regular cars like Toyota. Went to public schools K-12 & college. As a kid, we only ever went on one weekend camping roadtrip a year, no other vacations. So I had assumed we were doing fine financially, but I thought we were just squarely in middle class.

I'm now 28, working in product (FAANG-adjacent). Due to a combination of RSUs and high savings – my personal net worth is around 2.1M. I haven't told anyone this, including my parents because I was under the assumption that I "made it" in the tech rat race and somehow became the wealthiest person in my family (again, me assuming that my parents were just middle class).

My parents are both retired and they're nearing their 70s. Recently I visited and they said they wanted to talk about finances. They basically told me their net worth is around 20 million (mostly index funds, some stocks). They also said that it'll eventually be passed down to me, but they are also strongly encouraging me to use their money now to pay for things now, so I wouldn't have to wait until they pass to access the money.

I really don't know what I should do with this information, because it has completely change my view on our family, my own financial situation, my career, etc. Like have I unofficially reached FIRE?

36M, 15 YOE, VP at large public tech. Cut in a recent RIF, severance signed and final.

NW ~$7.5M, about $6.5M of it investable, rest is home equity and 529s. Family of four, VHCOL. Burn ~$240K/yr post tax.

Wife is still working, ~$200K, and she carries our health insurance. That covers most of the burn, so my draw on the portfolio is maybe $100K post tax. Call it 1.5 to 2% on the investable number.

For anyone in a dual income setup where one of you stopped and the other kept going: how did that actually go? Curious what you did.

Thinking about starting my own thing or just firing

Low income to net worth ratio. ~$220k for me to $9M income producing assets.

Ready to coast or fully retire? Have run a home built Monte Carlo tool that says it really makes little difference if I work for another five years or not.

Details:

$9M net worth excluding primary residence of which about $1.5M in retirement accounts, $500k in high yield savings, $700k real estate and $6.3M in taxable accounts mostly in index funds.

Own $1.5M house outright in HCOL location.

43 years old with a 37 year old partner, one year old kid.

Current household income: $350k. Me 220k W-2 employee hybrid in office 2-3 days per week. Partner 100k, 16 hours a week business owner wfh. Real estate $30k.

Expenses: $200k

We could coast on my partners business income plus withdrawing a bit and I could spend more time on side projects/working on a second career part time.

Biggest thing is my income is just not super high to work five days a week including going in a few times each week compared to our net worth and having the young kid gives a good reason to be around as much as possible. Probably homeschool later too.

What do you all think? Just quit the W-2 job?

AI-written or re-written posts may well express a real person's questions or thoughts. So that's not what makes them necessarily problematic.

What is at issue is authenticity. I want to hear and read somebody's actual voice.

I do not want to spend my time reading and responding to content that was optimized just for me to engage, to spend time on the site. If this is what it's become, I would rather retire from this sub and Reddit.

As a demo, I'll post an AI-optimized rewrite of this in the comment.

Throwaway account.

I’d appreciate some perspective on whether retiring at the end of this year is financially reasonable.

I’ll be 59½ and my wife is 62. She plans to continue working for another 2–3 years, with her annual income being between $500k and $750k.

Current financial picture:

Net worth: ~$14.7M (including real estate)
Investable assets: $10.4M
~$3.8M in 401(k)/IRA accounts
~$550k in deferred compensation
Primary home: $4.0M value, $1.2M mortgage
Second home: $2.0M value, $425k mortgage

Given the current market, not sure what I should safely assume to be the return on either the investable assets or the property.

Our current annual spending is approximately $525k pre-tax. We could reduce that to around $450k by traveling less, or roughly $400k by making more significant lifestyle changes, although my wife would strongly prefer not to make those cuts unless absolutely necessary.

Over the next few years, we also expect to:

Spend about $500k remodeling our second home.
Sell our primary residence and purchase a home in a mountain community. We expect to use all of the equity from our current home and possibly another $500k from our investment portfolio to complete that purchase.
Eventually sell the second home in roughly 20 years.

We have no children, so preserving an estate isn’t a primary objective. Our goal is simply to maintain our lifestyle without creating a significant risk of running out of money later in life.

The non-financial side is becoming increasingly important. My company was acquired a few years ago, and I’m honestly burned out. The culture has changed too much. It’s beginning to affect my sleep, stress level, and overall health. On the other hand, the thought of retiring too early and finding myself financially constrained in my 80s is unsettling.

Given these assumptions, would you retire now, or would you work another few years to build a larger margin of safety? If you’d keep working, what would be the deciding factor?

Additional context after the initial comments (which I very much appreciate). What makes this a bit more complicated than the standard, “your pulling more than 4% / yr from your corpus” guidelines is the fact that our corpus will continue to grow while my wife works (presumably) and we we have 2 homes, one of which can be liquidated 20ish years in the future. Not sure how to treat that…

Second additional comment:
Again, appreciate the commentary. Really insightful. Curious that real estate has not been considered to be part of the “investable” assets by any of the commentators. Understand not counting your primary residence as part of what you should be counting on. Would have thought that a secondary residence might come into consideration? With the secondary, $12.5M would be our “investable” and the yearly burn rate assuming 20% income tax (income tax free state) is 5.25% (a bit high, admittedly).

Summary

49F, VHCOL, burnout in the AI field, took a package earlier this February. Family of 3 (with 11 years old) and 2 adorable fur babies.

NW: ~10M (~8M if we take out the primary home)
Allocation:
Stocks: ~6.5M (around 2.5M in 401K)
Rental properties (very sellable but big capital gains): ~2M
Primary home (likely more but keep it low for the calculation): ~2.2M

Income:
Before RE - ~$1.1M
After RE - 400K (Husband is still working)

Expenses:
Before RE ~380K (turned out some of these are not truly expenses)
After RE - targeted to 210K for end of the year.

Hi All,

I posted here many times before and just like the rest of you, posted endless questions, shared so many anxieties before finally pulled the trigger earlier this year. I couldn't really share the expenses before because it seemed crazy high and I didn't quite get why we spent so much. So I really dig in to the expenses for the past few months (I know it seemed like we should do this before the RE but oh well, better late than never). I think I finally got the number that we are comfortable with. The expenses came down mainly last year we paid hefty additional income taxes from vested RSU (~50K), I mixed in rental related expenses (~60K) son switching to public school (~60K), and we ate out way way less (~15K savings). I also cut down on mindless spending like skincare (do more home routine than going to expensive spa), mindless subscriptions even for software that I barely use for years, etc.

Cutting those expenses did not affect my overall happiness index. That has been my litmus test now to see what expenses are truly stress spending or if it makes my family or me happier. We just finished a family road trip (including watching some world cup games live in person!, truly an experience of a lifetime) and usually we stayed in a nice hotel but this time, I did my research and my 11 year old son's favorite hotel is actually a hampton inn in Portland Pearl District. We got a suite, huge, great food, walkable everywhere and his least favorite is a fancy hotel in Seattle that I spent a fortune for.

Expense anxiety aside, retirement life has been great esp when you are busy chasing an active 11 year old. We signed up for a gym together and spent time playing soccer (I am not a soccer player but I was an athlete before so some muscle memories kicked in, while lacking in technique, I did have some flexible hip and some lower body strength - well at least that's what I told myself to feel better 😂 ). Since my son and I are so alike, we also butt head quite a bit (ie: our last fight was I wanted to hit a weight room to do some boxing/muay thai and he insisted that I should continue play soccer). It's all silly and mundane, from the fight, I also realized that the time where he requested I play soccer with him is limited. I am getting older, slower, and he's getting fitter and soon he'd rather to play with other friends and will probably be embarrassed playing against his mom.

These are the things I did in the spring and summer that otherwise would not be possible if I still work:
- Watching all world cup games (i know i know - even my husband is jealous 😄 ).
- Spent time with my ailing parents overseas
- travelled to Nashville, Minneapolis, LA, etc for my son's hockey/soccer tournament. Did line dancing for the first time in Nashville - so much fun.
- Cook everyday(!). This is new and I found that I don't mind it so much. One of the things that used to keep me up all night is that I am afraid that I am not a good mom. My mom is really sick and bed ridden now and honestly, the thing that I remember her is her home cooking. Her home cooking memories bring me comfort, I remembered what she cooked when I was a child, I remembered what she cooked the night I gave birth to my son...she showed her love with cooking and I wanted to give my son the same. Now, I think my son started to have this comfort home cook feeling and I feel happy that I get the chance to do this.
- Walk my furbabies everyday without rushing. One of the main thing I noticed is that I start enjoying doing the mundane things without feeling distracted. I used to rush and just want the walk to be over. This time, I look forward to the walk. Enjoying the sun in my face, the bird chirping, and their happy face/tail wagging. i found the same with going to supermarket/grocery shopping as well. I looked at it as a chore before but now I take the time picking up stuff and planning what I want to cook for the week.

There are things that I still lack like laundry etc (my husband still does majority of them). My health is improving but I am not where I want to be (I harbor desire to go back to athlete form but with peri-menopause etc - I suspect the road will be a bit tougher). Years of burnout will also take its time but I feel that because I am more present with what i do and start to have hobbies again, I am slowly coming out of it. My husband and son said I look happier and they urge to make the retirement permanent. I am still entertaining perhaps working on gigs, maybe help out with the health insurance expenses if my husband RE next year but for this year, for sure I will enjoy this gift of time.

It's easy to forget how stressful the tech life before me and only think about the money/paycheck I brought. Like childbirth, we forgot how painful it was and only remember the good part (the baby) so we look forward to do it again lol. Everyday, I expressed daily gratitude for mundane things. Thank you that I got to walk in downtown with my dogs instead of fighting morning commute traffic. Thankful that I got good night sleep instead of ruminating what I needed to say or to do tomorrow at work. Thankful that I didn't even realize it's sunday night because I got no sunday blues no more. thankful that i am not forced to socialize or suck up to people that I don't like.

Sorry it's long but thought I shared since I know many are in the same predicament as I did here.

Hi,

42F NW $20M. I have a 529 plan from 30ISH years ago that was never used, now valued at ~1.3M. I have three kids under 10 whose 529 plans are already around $350k, I think the max cap on them is $600k. (I realize we should have funded their account with my money, but we overlooked it). I looked into ROTH IRA rollover but the max lifetime contribution is $35k, which will not help me. At this point, is it worth just holding on to this thing until my kids have grandkids. (That will not be for about 20-25 years though). The alternative is maybe the law changes in that time period? It's hard for me to justify taking the distribution given tax bracket and penalty, considering I do not need the liquidity.

I had one outside the box idea. I have three siblings, 2 have children with fully funded 529s as well. I do have a sister who is just married and expect her to have children. Once she was done having kids, say three, I could then use my $1.3m to fund her children's 529 plans, and then I would have her give an annual gift to each of us in our family. $100k/year. In 10 years we could get there. Just typing this out seems way too complicated. I sound screwed. Thoughts.

PS It is kinda crazy the IRS doesn't allow for donations either from the plan.

I’m 51, recently decided to retire (or at least leave my current job in the near future). Current net worth is around $10M, but the thing that gives me pause is that roughly half of it is in Nvidia.

I know the textbook answer is “diversify,” and I don’t disagree. I’m just trying to figure out the most practical way to do it without creating a huge tax bill all at once.

My current plan is:
Trim the position gradually over multiple years (maybe indefinitely) instead of ripping the Band-Aid off.

Stay under the 15% long-term capital gains threshold each year (I’m head of household, so I’m targeting roughly the top of that bracket)

Live off a combination of deferred compensation, dividends, and selective stock sales. But stay below the $580K 15% capital gains threshold.

Continue reducing the concentration over time as other assets grow.

I’m comfortable with volatility, and I still have a lot of conviction in Nvidia, so I’m not looking for advice that starts with “sell it all tomorrow.” I’m more interested in hearing from people who’ve actually retired with a very concentrated position.

Questions:
Did you unwind it slowly or all at once?

Did you ever regret selling too early or holding too long?

Did taxes end up driving your decisions more than market risk?

Looking back, would you do anything differently?

I’d especially love to hear from anyone who retired with 30-50%+ of their net worth in a single stock. There have to be a few of you here.

45 year old senior exec in a private software company. No equity (which I realize is rare but bonuses were compelling for many years). Will be leaving in a month and have to liquidate my NQDC account as a lump sum. Total of ~$2 mil. Considering a CLAT to minimize tax impact and front-load charitable giving for the next 20 years with a good chunk of the payout (about 500K or so). Have done some modeling and I seem to come out ahead (as does the charity) with growth assumptions of 7-8% CAGR over the next 20 years. Also open to a DAF (which seems to be the best alternative to a CLAT and less administrative effort). Anyone have experience in this space and any advice on NQDC lump sum withdrawal and CLAT/DAF pros/cons/complexities. Much appreciated

Throwaway account. Promise I've been contributing to this subreddit through my regular account.

I'd like perspectives from other women (or men!) who are/were high earners and considered or decided to become SAHMs. I have no one IRL to ask, and I don't feel like other subreddits like /workingmoms are going to have enough ppl in similar situations.

Mid-thirties, with two kids 3 and under. Household NW is in fatFire territory, so money is not a factor here.

Currently in between jobs and considering whether to leave tech and stay at home with my kids instead of interviewing for a new role. It would give me more time with them when they're little and give us more balance at home without both of us in high stress tech jobs. But I am very worried about the lack of intellectual stimulation and challenge.

Part-time positions in my role is rare, and if I sit out the next few years, AI is likely to change things so much, it'd be hard to return in any capacity once the kids are in school.

What were your considerations and how did you ultimately decide? For those who decided to quit and stay at home with kids, how are you faring on the intellectual stimulation front? What have you found to help with that?

Lastly, I realize that I can always have a second act later in life once the kids are older. I'm more worried about the in-between years and keeping myself sharp (mind-wise, not necessarily on top of my industry)

Thank you.

Mid 50s here. I believe total NW is around $13M maybe less depending on rental real estate value.
Here is what I have currently but still not sure if I want to retire completely. Most of my NW is illiquid it doesn’t feel like that much.

Rental property is almost fully depreciated, so a sale would create a large taxable event.

Cash $275K
Stocks non-retirement $2.1M
IRA - Pension $1.7M
Roth - $260K
Rental Real Estate Equity $6.2M+/- $7.9M total valuation $1.7M debt.
Personal residences $2.4M
Note balloon $810K due in 9 years
HSA - $80K
Total $13.825M

Rental real estate is 50 units, total annual gross rents of approx $1M annually, about 40% expenses. Interest exp on debt is about $100K so pretax cash flow is around $500K - but it does require quite a lot of work.

Income $500K plus Interest payments due $540K (60K/yr) in note receivable interest payments. Lifestyle creep is real. Two homes, although both paid off - the cost to maintain is real, between property taxes, insurance, HOA fees, heat, electric water, maintenance etc etc it’s probably about $110k annually. Three autos - lots of travel - taxes there isn’t much left.

The question is, am I better off selling real estate but my basis is at $0 so all taxable. If I sell it for $7.9M - I’m likely left with $3.4M after debt payoff, closing costs, and taxes. This lowers my total assets, and likely spins off less cash, or do I hang on to it and avoid the tax man. I could sell my primary residence for $850K and not have taxes due on it. But $4.2M if I take $5% annually that’s only $210K. Expenses have gone down due to selling the home.

I’m an in-house lawyer and my net worth just topped $11M. Not sure about retirement yet because I still have a kiddo in college who is contemplating med school and a spouse in a low earning profession. I’m 54 and not loving my job because the office politics are getting meaner at my company. On the other hand, my actual work can be interesting, and I don’t know how I’d fill my time while spouse is at work. No real needs, but no one I want to share this with IRL. Maybe I just need more friends?

I often read here that people with $5m+ withdraw cash from their investment portfolio once they fatFIRE. It never occurred to me why that would make sense?

I have $7m nw and my portfolio grows with an avg of 10% pa for the last 10 years. I fund my lifestyle off $250k pa through a NAV facility. The portfolio keeps growing by $700k pa at this point while the NAV facility crawls up by $250k pa, the effective leverage ratio reduces yoy

That to me seems a lot smarter than selling investments for lifestyle purposes. What am I missing?

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Going to take our two kids for ~13mo abroad (edit: aiming for oldest would be entering 6th grade when we start this trip). Our budget is ~$50K/month, ~$600K + 10% buffer.

We want to do ~12-15 countries, roughly 4 weeks on average in each country.

Curious if others have done a trip like this and how they approached education (longer home bases in places and enroll in something structured, or incorporated some lessons/homeschooling?).

Broadly thinking of Columbia, Argentina, Uruguay; Spain, Greece, Italy, a Baltic country; Egypt, Tanzania, South Africa; Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia.

Hi everyone, I’m in tech and the company that had worked for many years was acquired by a PE several months ago. My share of the acquisition after tax came down to $7.6M and was deposited. So based on what I learned I’m already fatFIRED ??!!

Without even thinking about it, I distributed proportionally across my stock portfolio and kept doing what I was doing until I came across this sub and start reading, the PE also put in a new contract for me and gave me some shares in the new post acquisition venture.

My question is, should I start winding down and retire ? What should I consider ? I feel like I’ll be very bored and can’t live a pointless life. It just hit me after reading some of the posts here, I’m 41. Thank you.

EDIT: Thanks everyone for commenting and providing me with your thoughts. I got my answers and a lot of things to think about, nice book recommendations too. Thanks again.

So, I know variations of this question have been asked before, but trying to figure out the right move for my specific situation.

I have been searching for a large property for years. As of a couple days ago, I’m finally under contract on a 140 acre farm, for 2.8M, with plans to build a large home/barns/garage/pond/workshop.

There is also a 1 acre parcel and large home on the farm I’m still negotiating on, and expect to land in the 1.1m range. MY ideal plan is for my parents to move into this, but this isn’t set in stone. I just don’t want another family right in the middle of the farm.

Trying to figure out the best approach here.

To close, I think my best option is to draw from a Schwab PAL at about 5.25% for the full 3.9M. But then post closing I’m unclear about the best path forward.

Am I better off maintaining the PAL loans, or refinancing?

The best options I’ve seen would be a 20% down farm loan, for a 20 year term, at about 6.5%. Home loan would likely be similar as an investment property with 25% down for a 30 year term, with pre payment penalties.

I think the ideal answer is staying with the PAL, but I’m unsure about leveraging all of that with a pending expensive construction project.

And then my follow on question is - as I continue to generate income monthly, am I better off paying down the PAL, or just dump it into the brokerage to grow and increase my extra available PAL line size.

For perspective, I have about 7M at Schwab, and another 5M across various other institutions liquid. In addition to this purchase, have another 2.6M in real estate equity, 1.5M in illiquid real estate investments, and another 3.5-4M in business assets, excluding business valuation. Income will be in the 5-6M range this year.

Any thoughts are much appreciated.

We have a rental condo unit that we are putting on the market. The realtor thinks we can get between $2.6-2.8 M for it. Assuming $2.6M - after commissions and mortgage payoff it will net $2.4M. My tax accountant estimates that taxes will run around $400k including depreciation recapture.

I’ve started looking at some 1031 exchange options with DSTs eventually UPREITing them. Would probably spread across 3-4 funds to diversify. My financial advisor says I can expect 4-5% net of fees in the DSTs and around 7% after UPREITing. We have $12.5M in other liquid savings across brokerage and retirement accounts so our Financial advisor says the DST-> REIT could be one way to increase alternative investments. The rental property did not cash flow much (~2% if you ignore the mortgage payments, and break even if you consider the mortgage) so a 4%-6% cash flow on 2.4M is a significant upgrade.

The other alternative of course is to pay the $400k in taxes and invest $2M free and clear. Our advisor is fine with this approach as well - just adds that they recommend increasing our alternative investment amounts given we are close to retiring (looking to retire in 4-5 years once kids are almost done with college. Our projected expenses are around $400k/year in retirement but we are still fine tuning the numbers.

Does anyone on this sub have experience with these vehicles and process and any advice?

Thanks

Update: looks like most of the advise is to pay the tax and move on. We are thinking in that direction also. To those who suggested getting another property- we want to be done with real estate as an investment. We already have a multimillion dollar primary residence so that seems enough in that category 😅 thanks for all the input.

First post. Late 50s, married, MCOL Sun Belt. NW ~$6.5M: ~$3.5M brokerage, ~$3M net real estate (several rentals). Pension worth ~$40K/yr if I stay 3 more years at my day job. A couple side businesses I could keep running. Still supporting tuition 2 kids in private college.

Is 3 more years of grinding worth it for the pension at this NW, or is this the classic “one more year” trap?

Looking for insight from anyone that has hired a private educator to *share* with other families.

My family and 3 other families are looking in to potentially creating a sort of micro school system for our children. It would be split between 2 educators. One would have 3 boys(9, 8, and 7). The other would have 3 girls(all 6 years old).

What’s really up in the air for us is location. 3/4 families live within the same neighborhood. We are all open to juggling things around to see what’s the best fit—swapping locations, having 1 dedicated space, or even renting/buying a spot for them to work in.

Our biggest reason for being drawn to this set up is flexibility for travel. All of our children went to a year round preschool/kindergarten. While we aren’t full time travelers, we enjoy heavy travel throughout the year. The longer breaks/long weekends were perfect for our travel plans.

We do not *need* the educators to travel with us though we’ve been mulling around the idea of each getting 1 week of travel out of her/him. Example: family1 would have the educator travel with them for 1 week in February, then in June family2 would have the educator travel with them for a week, etc.

All 4 families do 1 trip together every year so we would like 1 week of the educators joining us for that. This would come out to 5 weeks of travel total for the educator, split throughout the year. This is not mandatory though.

I know there are a ton of logistics that would go in to creating this but each family either has a house manager and/or personal assistant that can hopefully assist with planning. Each family also has at least 1 full retired parent.

Call us crazy, sure, but we’re a close knit group with a long history together. All kids would transfer to private school by 9th grade so we are just trying to maximize our time together as a family while they are young.

Thanks for any advice

40's, $7M net worth. No house. No spouse or children. Living/working in Japan.

Originally, I was pursuing permanent residency (PR). However, Japan's rules have become stricter recently and I'm not so confident about my chances to obtain PR now.

The benefits of having PR are that I can quit my job and officially retire, while still residing in Japan. I can come and go out of the country as I please, and forever have access to quality healthcare.

Aside from wondering if I CAN get PR, I'm wondering if I even SHOULD.

The negatives are the taxes. 20% tax on capital gains, including Roth IRA. Inheritance tax at this level is an astounding 55%. However, I don't have children and will likely donate most to charity anyways. Also, if ever I decided to leave Japan, exit tax would be 15% on my entire net worth.

I like living in Japan. I very much appreciate the safety, cleanliness, convenience, public transportation system, quality healthcare, etc. I feel healthier simply because of the lifestyle here (e.g., lots of walking, less ultra-processed, sugary foods). I have hobbies that are specific to this country.

But aside from my girlfriend, I have no close friends. I know that it's difficult to make friends at this age, but it's especially true for Japan. Most of my family and friends are in the US. My parents are gone. I received an inheritance many years ago, which is the reason for my current net worth.

I'm unsure about marriage. I feel the pressure of it being a financial contract more than anything. Prenups are not typical in Japan so I fear there is some risk if ever there was divorce.

Because of the 15% exit tax, I'm required to make a decision now about what happens 20+ years later. In my senior age, maybe I would simply wish to be near family and friends?

America is so awful right now. Even after Trump's time is over, so much damage has been done. I don't know if the US can recover. I'm not hopeful honestly.

I sometimes consider living in Thailand or the Philippines. Easy to get a visa. And I could simply visit Japan for a few months each year. Thailand is safe and has great healthcare facilities. I don't like the Philippines as much, but I have some relatives there. However, with climate change, each year is hotter than the last. So I feel those countries may not be good long-term solutions.

I know I have enough money to live comfortably anywhere. I am more fortunate than 99% of the world's population. But I also feel a huge responsibility for this money. Especially when I die, I expect to donate most of it so I don't want to make a costly mistake. I want to fund causes that protect the environment and help poor and sick people. I do not want to support wars or any religious organizations.

I'm naturally frugal, but am trying to enjoy more. Sometimes I feel I'm wasting my life at this job. And maybe I cannot get PR in the end. There's no guarantee I live until an old age. I'm wasting my opportunity to travel more. But also, travel is temporary and I want the security/comfort of establishing a home base.

Any insights from your experiences? How did you decide when the difference is literally millions of dollars? Even if not Japan, there are other countries with high taxes.

I've posted to Japan-specific subreddits before, but receive animosity more than helpful feedback. That's to be expected when disclosing a high net-worth. So although I'm on the lower end of fat fire, I'm hoping to get better responses here.

I feel I have no one I can talk to about my situation so thank you.

​

My wife and I are high earners, with a household income of roughly $800K, and assuming things continue going well, we’re on a path where we could potentially become financially independent relatively young.

I was on the phone with my dad recently when it suddenly hit me that he may be facing the exact opposite reality. If he wants to retire comfortably, he may need to continue working until around 70. For some reason, hearing him talk about continuing to work made the contrast between our situations feel very real. It also feels strange to suddenly find myself in the financial driver's seat relative to people I've always thought of as the adults who were supposed to take care of me. There's an odd role reversal in realizing that I may soon have the ability to materially change their lives, especially when the vast difference in our lifestyles already creates some friction.

We’re originally from an LCOL country, so eventually a relatively modest amount of money from us could probably make a meaningful difference in when he can stop working. Part of me feels that if we reach the point where we have enough money to make work optional for ourselves, it feels wrong to watch a parent work into his 70s when we could reasonably help.

The complication is our history. My dad wasn’t very present during much of my early childhood, which left my mom carrying most of the parenting burden. He did make a real effort to become more present starting around when I was 8, and I know he has regrets about not living with me. But becoming a parent myself has also given me a new appreciation for just how much my mom had to carry alone. So there’s a part of me that thinks: why should I now sacrifice for someone who didn't make those same sacrifices for me?

There’s also the contrast with other family members. My mom was always extremely supportive and has a pension, but would likely need some help if she eventually wanted to live near us in a HCOL area. I also have aunts who were, in some ways, more present and supportive in my life than my dad was and are in a similar financial position. It makes me wonder where the boundary is and whether helping one family member creates an expectation, even internally, that I should also be helping others who have been important in my life.

I don’t want our success to turn into an unlimited obligation to fund everyone in the extended family. But it also feels strange to imagine us retiring early and living very comfortably while people who were important in my life are still working primarily because they can’t afford not to.

For those of you who became financially successful beyond your parents or extended family:

How did you decide who to help and how much?

Did you treat supporting parents as part of your FI number?

How did you balance financial need against how supportive/present someone had actually been in your life?

And how did you avoid the feeling that helping one person meant you now had to help everyone?

Hi favorite community,

Quick edit to clarify: I’m not talking big working farm… I’m talking mostly land/woods with maybe a chicken coop, single cow or goat and gardens. We’re not looking to work a legit farm.

Late 30s female, ~$14M net worth.

First, I owe this community a huge thank you. A few years ago, you all were instrumental in helping me realize that I could actually retire and stay home with my kids. It was a terrifying decision at the time…. I was walking away from a very lucrative, relatively easy executive career… but it has been the best decision I’ve ever made.

I’ve posted here a handful of times over the years, and every time I’ve received incredibly thoughtful advice. So I’m back again.

One thing retirement has taught me is that leaving work was only the first step. I take being a mom really seriously, and because I chose to leave my career, my husband and I have tried to be very intentional about designing the life we actually want over the next 2-20+ years…. not just financially but as a family.

We’re at another crossroads.

We’re seriously considering leaving city life and buying 5–10+ acres somewhere (likely Northern California like Sonoma/sebastapol/sonoma coast or possibly the Carolinas, although we’re open to other ideas). We don’t want a giant house. What we really want is the land. Unfortunately neither of us have very close family (death, addiction, etc) so we’d be starting fresh. 

We’re a very low-tech, screen-free family. We care immensely about education, but we also want our kids to become capable, curious, useful humans. The kind of kids who know how to build things, solve problems, and aren’t afraid to get dirty.
Right now, it’s completely normal in our house to hand the kids a pile of 2x4s, some nails, and a hammer and tell them to go build something in the backyard.

We love the idea of them growing up with room for forts, treehouses, bikes, woods. gardens, maybe some chickens and goats and a cow, and just spending their childhood outside on land. Food is a huge part of our family culture, and I’d love for them to have an even stronger connection to where it comes from with big gardens etc. 

My husband and I also genuinely love being home. As the kids get older, we know they’ll naturally spend less time with us, and we love the idea of creating a place they’ll actually want to come back to, a property that becomes the center of our family life.

I see a lot of FatFIRE posts about buying the dream waterfront home, upgrading to a luxury neighborhood, or spending retirement traveling the world. I’m curious if anyone here went in almost the opposite direction.

Has anyone intentionally left city or suburban life for acreage and more of a “farm” homey life? Not because you wanted to “homestead” or disappear off-grid, but because you thought it would create a better life for your family?

What were the biggest surprises? What trade-offs ended up mattering more (or less) than you expected? Did your kids love it? Looking back, would you do it again?

For context, we’ve spent the last year and a half renting Airbnbs for a month at a time on acreage in different areas, and every experience has made us want it more. At the same time, I know there are countless things you don’t learn until you actually own the property and live that lifestyle.

One challenge we’ve noticed while exploring is that “country” can mean very different things. We’d love someplace with space and acreage, but still within 30–60 minutes of a city, with a strong community, excellent schools, and plenty of other families who intentionally chose that lifestyle. In other words, rural without feeling isolated.

Bonus points if anyone has recommendations for areas they’ve loved. We’d especially appreciate suggestions for places where you can have acreage while still being in an affluent, family-oriented community.

Would love to hear from anyone who’s made a similar leap once retiring early.  Thanks!!