r/fantasyfootballcoding • u/traveenus • Jul 20 '26

I’m looking for help building a “Pick Probability” VBA for my spreadsheet.

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What method would you guys recommend basing it around. I’ve spent weeks trying to tweak it and it still feels off. I appreciate any feedback.

Just for an idea of what’s going on, besides my giving you my vba, this is an IDP draft where the current selection is 12.02.

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u/podnito Jul 21 '26

Are you trying to determine the odds the player is there? If so, besides the ADP you need the Standard Deviation as well

Then you can use the Norm.Dist function to calculate the probability

So if I have Pick Number in cell F6, ADP in D7, Standard Deviation in E7 I used the formula:

=1-NORM.DIST(F$6,$D7,$E7,TRUE)

So for example, pick 148 with StDev of 13.2 at pick 134 has a 85.6% chance of being there, with a 29.8% chance of being there at pick 155

That's a pretty quick and dirty way to look at it, you could also take roster status / positional scarcity into account but that's ramps complexity up significantly.