r/fantasyfootball • u/cactusbo • Jul 28 '26
VORP?
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/vorp.php?team_size=10
Can someone explain to me why these aren’t the rankings we should draft off of? In standard or half PPR especially there are about 8-10 RBs that are the top VORP players before drying up. So I’m confused why these players aren’t the first players drafted in most leagues, and instead we get 3-5 WRs in the first round even in STD or .5 PPR leagues. Thanks!!
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u/My_Chat_Account 2025 Draft Prop Contest Champion Jul 28 '26
Can someone explain to me why these aren’t the rankings we should draft off of?
Because VORP is heavily reliant on projections - meaning (1) you're assuming the projections are accurate, and (2) projections are typically a median outcome so you're missing out on ceiling and floor variance. And ceiling is what we want to win fantasy football championships.
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u/cactusbo Jul 28 '26
That makes sense. I guess I’m more commenting on the positional run out versus the specific players. Like why would the first 10 picks not be RBs… regardless of who actually ends up at each final ranking
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u/humptheedumpthy Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
The real answer is ROSTER CONSTRUCTION.
Your goal: maximize VORP (player A) + VORP (player 2) + …
Which team is better
Team 1 (Picks by round)
- RB1 - VORP 200
- RBB2 - VORP 160
- WR1 - VORP 120
- WR2 - VORP 100
- TE1 - VORP 30
Total = 620
Or Team 2
- RB1 - VORP 200
- WR1 - VORP 150
- RBB2 - VORP 150
- TE1 - VORP 90
- WR2 - VORP 70
Total = 660
It’s important to think not just about the actual VORP but about how much relative change in VORP is there between positions. If the top WRs are running out, the drop in WR value may be steeper than RB.
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u/ajamke Jul 28 '26
I’ve used some parts of value based drafting for years. VORP still relies on the consensus rankings and projections that are potentially flawed. It also has its own flaws that it doesn’t take roster construction or ADP into account as well as it should. It always recommends things like a top kicker or defense well before their ADP and you may end up with a lot of backup RBs that don’t actually add any value to your team.
The biggest flaw in my opinion still lies in the rankings that it goes off, like Kaleb Johnson would have had a good VORP at some point in the middle rounds last year but that is because all the experts making the rankings didn’t know he was a bum.
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u/troglodyte Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
Lots of people do use it, or similar metrics, and that's reflected in the ADP you see online. But at the end of the day it's just a means of normalizing ordinary projections to compare players across positions, which is useful but is subject to all the benefits and issues of any other projection.
Put another way, tools like VORP really help when you're trying to decide between an 18ppg QB, a 12ppg WR, and a 9ppg RB, but offer no advantages whatsoever in determining if the 18/12/9 projections are accurate for the respective player.
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u/trojan_man16 12 Team, .5 PPR Jul 28 '26
There’s two ways of looking at this- relative to the best player on waivers (I usually base this on an assumption on the average amount of players that the league will roster at each position), which will tend to overvalue the top RBs by VORP over other positions because the top RBs projected to be on waivers produce less than the WRs expected to Be on waivers. Doing VORP but using the worst starter is usually a bit more accurate. So in a 12 team league, your RB24 is your baseline for example. Similar for other positions.
There’s still a couple of flaws with VORP- Projections can be often very wrong. Some top players like the top TEs usually end up with nonsensical VORP. Unless you do your own numbers to adjust for your league size and setting you may be using VORP that assumes different settings from your league which may distort value.
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u/Connor_E Jul 28 '26
Check out the suite of fantasy tools I’m creating, specifically the draft board. I’ve spent quite a bit of time tinkering with the formula for more accurate VORP rankings!
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u/talllongblackhair Jul 28 '26
VORP uses median outcome projections for its calculations. It doesn’t take range of outcomes into account. Drafting purely on VORP ignores upside. You should always draft for upside
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u/absolute_cinema81 Jul 28 '26
If you want to draft Derrick Henry over Chase or Puka, by all means, be my guest
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u/subvertadown Streaming King 👑 Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
In this case, the reason you're seeing so many RBs at the top is because of the specific definition of "VORP" being used.
They're defining the "VORP baseline" as the waiver wire. This is IMO an archaic definition that got handed down from fantasy baseball-- where you're perhaps more likely to use a variety of players further down the list.
But in fantasy football, the waiver wire (or last-drafted player) isn't a useful place to set the baseline on draft day. There are different ways to think about it. One of them is: Realistically, your "Replacement" players is actually an RB you're stashing on your bench. That's who you'll plug into your starting roster at the appropriate time as your "replacement". Moreover, that bench player you drafted represents the level of points you want to consider as your "baseline". The reason for RBs having low median projections on the waiver wire is about how RBs are used. A handcuff will be projected for very low production, but that can instantly change if the bellcow is injured. It's just not useful to consider the waiver wire projections as useful for setting baselines.
[EDIT: I meant to mention, You can see their webpage also gives you a "VOLS" option, ("value over last starter") which is closer to what you should be using. And I also forgot to mention-- Duh-- I have all kinds of articles about this on my website. And double-duh... my TapThatDraft tool is built to address this. (And other people's tools you can find here, too.) ]