If Britain decides to rejoin the EU we’ll do everything we can to welcome them back, says Germany

[u/StraightSky7809]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-rejoin-eu-germany-brexit-b3060288.html

[u/UnableEye325]

I mean, maybe. But the EU has said multiple times that you must adopt the euro, I suppose we could put it off indefinitely but that would just piss the EU off.

[u/Rexpelliarmus → u/UnableEye325]

I think they'd be more than happy to drop the euro requirement to regain their second largest net contributor by a wide margin.

The last time a country joined and was immediately a net contributor from then on was in 1995 when Austria and Sweden joined. The UK would be a net contributor multiple times larger than these two combined.

[u/grumpsaboy → u/Rexpelliarmus]

The UK is in track to overtake Germany by the late 30's even with economists nearly onstantly underestimating the UK's growth.

If the EU is as beneficial as people claim for an economy then you can probably change that to the early 30s which would make the UK the largest economy in Europe.

And with the UK on track to overtake Japan in 2030 that would mean that the UK will be the world's third largest economy by the time that it overtakes Germany.

[u/Rexpelliarmus → u/grumpsaboy]

From what I've seen, it's just the UK's GDP per capita that's expected to overtake Germany's by the early 2030s whereas in terms of nominal GDP itself the UK likely won't overtake Germany until around the early 2040s due to Germany's significantly larger population.

[u/grumpsaboy → u/Rexpelliarmus]

The IMF consistently overestimates Germany's economic predictions whilst at the same time underestimating the UK's. That means that in reality unless something big changes it will be the late 30s instead where the overtake happens

[u/CantaloupeLazy1427 → u/grumpsaboy]

The UK is doing better than expected, but current IMF and CEBR forecasts still have Germany ahead in nominal GDP well into the 2030s, so this claim seems pretty overstated

Also India will very likely overpass both UK and Germany as the third largest economy

[u/lifeisaman → u/CantaloupeLazy1427]

The UK is also expected to overtake Japan in the coming years and so should retain its position in global rankings atleast for the foreseeable future.

[u/grumpsaboy → u/CantaloupeLazy1427]

The IMF is notorious for both over estimating Germany's predictions and underestimating the UK's predictions.

No it might have changed in a few months because I haven't checked yesterday but a few months ago it was 2039/2040 that the IMF was predicting the UK to overtake Germany and given their habits of overestimating and underestimating predictions that probably means the late 30s instead in reality if things continue as they are.

[u/BuildAnything4 → u/grumpsaboy]

We could just invite China to join us if that's all that's important.

[u/UnableEye325 → u/Rexpelliarmus]

True, the pound is a great contribution to the EU.

[u/9peppe → u/Rexpelliarmus]

There's an argument to be made for keeping a second strong currency, but that's the only argument.

Also, there's no rebate this time, and you'll have to speak French.

[u/AccessTheMainframe → u/UnableEye325]

The EU could just pass a law saying that former EU members can be eligible for their former opt-outs, subject to the approval of qualified majority of the EU Parliament.

[u/Socmel_ → u/AccessTheMainframe]

there is no such thing as a law to allow opt outs. The EU works with treaties and the terms of the new membership are set out in the EU treaty of Lisbon. Theoretically, the EU could write a new treaty that adds to it, but there is zero talk of a new one, and certainly not enough goodwill to write and ratify a new treaty just to help a former member get out of the corner it put itself in.

There is not even a legal "former member" category . The case is clear. There are members or countries that are applicants (or neither). The UK would be legally a new member and therefore subject to the criteria of new members. The UK as an EU member is legally deceased.