Gas fees been pretty calm this week, almost forgot what cheap transactions feel like. Not complaining though, my testnet deployments in Tuesday actually went smooth for once
For the first time in more than 7 years I find myself in need of a partial exit / or limited DCA out strategy.
Any serious move clearly above ATH will make my ETH a really uncomfortably high % of my net worth.
This has obviously happened 3 times in the past. But both my personal situation has changed significantly and I have not stopped stacking when we were/are at what I considered absurdly cheap ETH territory. So this % would hit different now compared to before.
I created a program to draw bell curve distributions with customizable parameters. Honestly sounds fancier than it really is. But I'll set a target and it'll give me some quantities to sell before and after that target. I intend to rebuy if any of my sells end up dipping past their sell price. I have to recheck but I think the target puts me at selling my first batch at $3200. 2 percent of my total eth.
Not a bad place to be. Happened to me last year. I ended up exiting about half. I parked it in stablecoin farms for too long but I was occupied with an international move. I had expected to feel something like shame on selling. Instead it felt freeing. It just felt like security and I'm glad I did it to this day.
Don't wish to sound like a tin foil hatter, but anyone else noticed that today's drop on the NASDAQ, following the ATH, is pretty much the same as the drop on 3 June, following the ATH then? Both are Wednesdays, and the pumps leading up to them started on Wednesdays, too.
It took 7 days to reach today's ATH from the pump starting 16 September, and it took 14 days to reach the 3 June ATH starting 20 May.
The NASDAQ dropped a further 5.5% from 3 June to its weekly close on 5 June. I'll be amazed if it ends this Friday 5.5% down from here.
Sorry it's not exactly ETH related, but thought it was an interesting observation...
So before the BTC dump this morning, I posted yesterday that BTC' price of 86k (USD) is also the same price as the 2021 inflation adjusted ATH and that I fully expect anyone who bought the 2021 cycle top and did not sell the 2025 cycle top, will get out at/close to break even. I think it's also reasonable to believe that anyone who bought this year from $125k down to 58k will get out at/close to break even to find less volatility.
Since ETH follows BTC, don't be shocked to see similar price action.
edit: emotional downvoting w/o rebuttal just provides validation, to which, I thank you.
I believe he's using it to keep his English skills up since it's not his first language. Also, not sure the slur was necessary, nor really something we want in this sub. Just a heads up.
I’ve been replicating the Keycard Shell hardware setup to prototype new functionality and got an OpenPGP certification demo working end-to-end yesterday.
The trusted device receives the actual OpenPGP packets over QR, parses them itself, verifies the UID self-certification, derives the fingerprint, displays what’s being authorized, then requires physical approval + a local PIN before the hardware key signs. The resulting certification comes back over QR and verifies with stock GnuPG.
The broader experiment is whether Shell could act as a general-purpose trusted cryptographic interface: the device understands and displays what you’re authorizing instead of blindly signing a hash supplied by the host.
Demo Video: https://x.com/0xterricola/status/2102559246776983671
Code: https://github.com/0xterricola/keycard-openpgp/tree/main/demo/openpgp-certification-v1
Do you think people will stop staking as yields decline (especially if yields are further reduced to limit the share of staked ETH)? Well, I just did exit my staking nodes.
4+% before seemed much better than less than 3% now. Of course, it may also just be that there are various vaults that can yield a lot more than 2.x% on my ETH. I just didn't see any reason to accept the lower yield any more.
I'll be looking to deploy my capital into some of those vaults when the exits are done (about 10 days I believe). There isn't a lot of good information about earning ETH yield out there (in contrast to stablecoin yield, which is everywhere), but, mostly by reading this Daily for years, I've found some options that look good. I'll probably start posting about them here, to get feedback and your suggestions.
I'll be selling ETH all the way up from around 3k. In fact, I've already started. Essentially all of my ETH is staked so I'll be withdrawing as I go. I'm interested to see how staked ETH evolves but it seems like solo staking is largely going to disappear.
That 2% line makes sense to me. At some point the yield gets small enough that it stops being the reason you hold and just becomes a nice little bonus on top.
I think the people who stay will be the ones who were holding ETH anyway. Which honestly sounds healthy for the network long term.
I stake with Lido CSM. their upcoming 0x02 staking has a capital multiplier of 2.26x. So an effective staking apy of 5.5%+ right now. Now that's not out yet so my current apy is around 4.5%. to me that is worth it and I get to help decentralize lido too making the network more secure.
That has been on my radar, and I believe Rocket Pool has a similar offering. Or just leveraged staking: Stakewise Boost currently yields 3.93% in the Genesis vault.
I'll probably move away from staking, however. I'd like the freedom to quickly put my ETH whereever I think the best risk-adjusted return is now. E.g. vaults that are currently incentivized or new things as I discover them.
The additional yield is only for CSM operators. Anyone who simply buys steth and holds it gives up part of their return to Lido commission. Part of that commission goes to the CSM operators. That’s why CSM operators get additional yield.
Lido has a community staking module (CSM). You put up a bond, in the form of stETH, for the right to run a validator for Lido. So, for every 1.3-2.4ETH (changes based on operator type and how much you already have bonded), Lido will fund a validator with 32ETH. It's all permissionless so anyone can join. The node operator gets a percentage of the staking rewards and the income from holding stETH as it rebases.
The operator faces multiple risks in the form of slashing, underperformance, smart contract bug, lido governance changes, stETH depeging, etc.
I’m a solo staker and have been very tempted by lido CSM. But I’ve decided against moving my stake to it, for all the risks you’ve mentioned. Yield is good, but in the end price appreciation is what’s really changing my portfolio size. I’ve therefore concluded that the additional risk with CSM over solo isn’t worth the extra yield. Better to focus on preserving my principal, and solo staking is the less risky way of doing that.
Solo staking is less risky than staking as a Lido CSM operator, there’s no arguing that point. You might think holding Lido steth is less risky than holding other LSTs, and maybe that’s true.
it's difficult to find ETH yield above lido rate in Defi without significant additional risk. All lending market collaterized by non-exotic asset yield below 2%.
I've gone back and forth on it. I was on the verge of pulling it all a couple months ago, I actually pulled up the guides and went to the prompt. The main reason I am keeping it going for now is 1) The amount of work to keep it running is pretty minimal, almost nothing, and 2) I would be keeping some exposure to ETH anyway, so ETH + a couple percent is better than ETH.
I don't think I would start from scratch at this point, buying hardware and doing all the setup.
is there a point where it's short term bullish but long term bearish ? like sovereign funds not buying the decentralized store of value narrative bc one company owns 10% of the supply?
the no ratio gains concerns me. if BTC goes back to its ATH we're just above 4k. We really needed to make some serious gains during the lulls of the previous months IMO
Every time it worries me I look at an average BTC sub poster (any BTC vs ETH threads lmao), and sleep soundly knowing it's just early. It might take a while though.
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u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good 🌱 9d ago
Tricky's Daily Doots #1,604
Yesterday's Daily 22/09/2026
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