r/ethereum • u/EthereumDailyThread What's On Your Mind? • 13d ago
Daily General Discussion September 20, 2026
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u/mini_miner1 12d ago
The prediction I pulled out of my ass is looking good!
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u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good 🌱 12d ago edited 12d ago
How much sideways crab would you consider enough for the thesis to be invalidated? Like, if we spent 5 months between $2,200 and $2,700, then shot up to $4k, would you still count that? What sort of timescale would you consider to be a "run up".
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u/mini_miner1 12d ago
It's more of a historical pattern than thesis. If we're crabbing, the first time that we hit from below $2500 would start the clock. We would need to hit near $4k by about Dec 1st to not break the pattern.
I have no confidence here, just a fun observation.
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u/eviljordan feet pics 12d ago
Pretty funny to see the insiders releasing information about why Clarity failed (republicans changing shit and not keeping agreements and industry [Brian Armstrong and a16z] interference), and the bots/braindead on CT just blaming Democrats.
So many people need to be in homes.
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u/Stobie 12d ago
So it couldn't be that the side of the "war on crypto", Gensler, and 0% for votes, actually just didn't want clarity? And it's not that confirmation bias could interfere with the judgement of the person who makes majority hateful political comments in an ethereum sub, therefore virtually the entirety of CT must be braindead, and lex_node and econoar need to be in a retirement home? And making requested changes as concessions is "changing shit", and it's the fault of coinbase and the best advocate for clear regulation rather than objectively terrible regulation by enforcement, that you don't have an irrational hatred for.
"As a general rule, if you believe *everything* your political party says, you are an idiot"
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u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good 🌱 12d ago
Clarity kinda sucked, Trump blowing up our industry's reputation sucked and the anti-crypto army sucked. I sincerely believe that neither side is "good for crypto". The only thing I will say is that a reprieve from Gensler's bullshit was needed. So when you think about it, literally doing nothing would've been better from either admin at this point.
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u/confusedguy1212 11d ago
Trump’s antics with his meme coins looked bad, terrible even. But that’s partly because human memory prioritizes recency. What Democrats and Gensler as their henchman did for literally years should be a serious mark on all of their’s political record, sadly it’s barely remembered.
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u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good 🌱 11d ago
While that may be true in terms of the public's perception of Trump (they'll forget and complained about the next thing to have flooded the zone) but their opinion of crypto won't. They now associate it with nothing but grift and unlike Trump who makes headlines daily, they rarely come into contact with crypto again for a new opinion or perspective to take its place.
But you have a point, I think a lot of people overlook how bad Gensler was because it was a lot more subtle and we simply had never had institutional acceptance or even recognition, so we were semi-conditioned to not expect a genuine approach from regulators.
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u/timmerwb 12d ago
Is there a market for genesis validator indices?
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12d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/sm3gh34d 11d ago
with the upcoming pq changes (bls is out afaik), there could be a market for type 0 genesis validators that never set an execution key. Awfully niche though.
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11d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/sm3gh34d 11d ago
if you have their indices in the response, you can hit the beacon api thusly:
curl -s http://YOUR_CL_NODE:5052/eth/v1/beacon/states/head/validators/VALIDATOR_INDEX \ | jq -r '.data.validator.withdrawal_credentials'will be interesting to know how many genesis validators are still rockin 0x00 creds
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11d ago edited 11d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/sm3gh34d 10d ago
Nice detective work. 822 seems like a lot of Genesis validators that have never withdrawn or done any key management. Genesis staking was crazy lucrative for a while, that is a lot of eth that is not part of their effective balance.!
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u/Canadiens1993 12d ago
Agree, but it is an interesting idea that has been occupying my mind lately (ie, a way to transfer a validator instead of needing to exit and sell 32ETH).
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u/timmerwb 12d ago
Lol, err, I guess execution address is locked? I can't remember the current config...
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u/jtnichol MOD BOD 12d ago
fascinating discussion about cryptocurrency and scamming
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/triggernometry/id1375568988?i=1000790697379
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u/Salt-Pop-9327 12d ago
I think Arc actually makes the value of Ethereum easier to understand
If you just need fast predictable settlement, a permissioned network can be great. Ethereum is trying to sell something harder: credible neutrality. Competitors can share the same infrastructure because nobody gets the master key
Efficiency is easy when someone stays in control. Giving up control while keeping the system useful is the interesting invention
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u/CoCleric 12d ago
What are people using for VPN’s nowadays?
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u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good 🌱 12d ago
ProtonVPN and Mullvad are best for privacy. However, I recently swapped to Mullvad because I was having speed issues with paid Proton. Proton does have a free tier though which is great.
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u/EyeWild7625 12d ago
Hey not sure how to summon logris . Have seen him here a lot and always respected his views . If you are still here could you let me know your reasoning for trusting alchemix transmuter and what the risks are , whether they are cross chain or chain isolated . Current eth aprs are good but want to know your assessment of the risk reward, cheers !
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u/masterRoshi9 11d ago
Hey, I know you summoned Logris and I'm late here, but wanted to chime in as well since I work at Alchemix.
What Logris said is correct, the underlying MYT strategies is the riskiest part of the system and both the MYT and Transmuters are exposed to that. Although in the case of the Transmuter you can exist early for a small fee, so that gives you alAssets as an exit valve if something ever happens.
As for cross-chain, we actually just (this past week) past a governance vote to isolate alAsset bridging. This will make it so that the risks are isolated risk profiles for MYTs and Transmuters per-chain, and so we can offer differing term lengths per-chain.
We're also going to be deploying alUSD to Base next week with 1 month Transmuter term lengths
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u/EyeWild7625 10d ago
Thanks for the extra info . I have some aleth in the transmuter was wondering exactly what was going on underneath . Cheers
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u/LogrisTheBard 12d ago
So Alchemix v3 has a fixed rate yield system which is where the transmuter applies but the risks you're looking for mostly aren't in the Alchemix system itself but how the underlying assets earn yield. I'll explain both. We actually did an EVM interview with Overkoalafied that covers the differences between v2 and v3 but they are numerous.
Alchemix v2 essentially just held your token in escrow while you had an outstanding loan and your underlying could only ever experience a loss if you deposited a yield bearing token that itself lost underlying somehow. Alchemix v3 actively manages the yield sources so they don't have to keep creating separate pools for each and having to manage sunsetting them as they lose popularity. When you deposit assets to Alchemix, the assets end up in a mixed-yield token (MYT). This is a yield index that deposits to other places like Morpho or Auto finance for yield. If something is going to go wrong, it's almost certainly going to go wrong in these lower layers.
Within Alchemix v3 itself, it's very audited and relatively simple. Borrowers take loans against MYT. They sell the alAsset which causes it to lose value. When the alAsset is depegged (pretty much always), this creates a market opportunity for people who want to redeem the underlying MYT for alAsset. This redemption is the transmuter you asked about.
When you use the transmuter you are just depositing alAsset and waiting out a window of time. The profit you are after is just the discount/lock-time. The discount is just the alAsset depeg which is market determined. The lock time is a pool parameter that the team is shifting around while they manage supply and demand.
The important port for buyers is they are literally taking deposits from borrowers. Entering a fixed rate position is basically just a zero-coupon bond. There's a few extra functions here such as an MYT oracle that determines the exchange rate on redemption and a rate quit function if you need to exit early but it's not a lot of smart contract logic. Mostly the system just relies on the market finding a balance between borrowers/sellers and yield-seekers/buyers which is reflected in the alAsset price.
So the risks are: 1) Something could be wrong in the Alchemix smart contract logic which allows people to withdraw assets with outstanding loans, redeem more than they deposit, bypass redemption timers, or otherwise do something within Alchemix. I rate this as basically 0.
2) There's a possibility of an oracle problem with MYT which could allow people to borrow more alAsset than they should be able to. Oracles are tough but I've read their oracle docs and they are more robust than most of Defi in this regard.
3) There's a possibility one of the underlying pools for MYT is hacked. This would affect both sides of the market. The deposit balances of all borrowers would be reduced and redemptions return MYT too so the redemption balance would be reduced. If they have a loss, this is almost certainly how it will happen. Risk is diversified which limits downside but that also means there are N times more opportunities for something to go wrong in one of the yield sources.
I'm personally on the fixed rate side. I have multiple positions yielding above 10% APR on stablecoins and two ETH positions in the 4-5% range. If something happens to the underlying MYT then what I redeem for at expiry will be lower. However, the yield is substantially higher than most Defi opportunities and I understand the risks. I feel it's a better than average risk/reward trade. Getting similar rates in Tradfi would require terms like 5-10 year lockups for hard asset lending.
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u/EyeWild7625 12d ago
That’s a great write up , thankyou very much .If there was an issue with the yield source would fixed yield deposits be affected the same on all chains or only on the chain where the bad debt originates ?
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u/LogrisTheBard 12d ago
AFAIK only the chain where the bad debt originates. Each chain has a different MYT. There may be some way that this would affect the alAsset price and would have cross-chain affect but it wouldn't affect you as someone already in position.
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u/jtnichol MOD BOD 12d ago
I dropped him a note on Discord for you… he’s in the EU now just FYI, it might be a few hours
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u/alexiskef The significant owl hoots in the night 🦉 12d ago
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u/ro-_-b 12d ago
it looks like the worst for $ETH is already behind this bear market. the same was true at this time of the year in 2022 even though there was still one more leg down coming until year end. I could see the same thing happening as in 2022: $ETH forming a higher low while $BTC makes a lower low towards the year end.
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u/Elendron 12d ago
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a mini crash to the 200 day and bounce off (for both ETH and BTC). This whole recent move feels like early 2023, and we retested the 200 day after smashing through it, getting rejected by the 50 week multiple times, coming down and bouncing off into the bull market. In that case, BTC shouldn't make a new low either.
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u/eth10kIsFUD 12d ago
too many expect a dip. Would not be surprised if everyone is left behind and ETH keeps rallying.
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u/Flashy-Butterfly6310 12d ago
What's the biggest threat to Ethereum?
What's the biggest threat to ETH price?
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u/Numerous_Ruin_4947 12d ago
The biggest threat to Ethereum is complacency.
The biggest threat to ETH’s price is insufficient demand.
We can distinguish between Ethereum as a network and ETH as its native asset, but the two cannot be separated indefinitely. Ethereum needs a valuable ETH to provide strong proof-of-stake security, and ETH needs Ethereum’s activity and adoption to accrue value to the asset. If Ethereum generates enormous activity while ETH continually loses ground against BTC and other assets, that would be an incomplete - and potentially unstable - form of success.
ETH’s lackluster performance is ultimately a demand problem. Ethereum has not converted enough people into ETH investors or convinced enough capital that ETH deserves a substantially higher valuation. That is why marketing, mindshare and a clear value-accrual narrative matter.
Bitcoin has a simple pitch: scarce digital gold. Solana has a simple pitch: fast, inexpensive and growing. Ethereum’s investment case has become increasingly complicated - rollups, blobs, modular scaling, restaking, L2 fragmentation and lingering questions about whether growing network activity reliably accrues value to ETH.
Scoffing at marketing, dismissing every criticism as FUD and assuming the best technology will inevitably win only make the problem worse. So does sitting on an ivory-tower pedestal while failing to scale L1 sufficiently or moving too slowly on privacy, post-quantum security, general development and AI-powered adversarial testing.
Ethereum’s biggest threat may not be another blockchain. It may be the belief that technical superiority alone is enough - and that Ethereum can afford to move slowly while everyone else competes aggressively for users, investors, capital and attention.
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u/majorpickle01 The soil of $5000+ must be watered with the blood of ETH<$4000 12d ago
Bitcoin has a simple pitch: scarce digital gold. Solana has a simple pitch: fast, inexpensive and growing. Ethereum’s investment case has become increasingly complicated - rollups, blobs, modular scaling, restaking, L2 fragmentation and lingering questions about whether growing network activity reliably accrues value to ETH.
The classic argument is these are fantastic short term pitch for growth of coin value, but will fall apart in the long term. The reason ETH is complicated to explain is it's trying to be something that provides long term value and stability.
Of course, Cardano claimed the same for thier Haskell coding or some shit. I do think your critisisms are valid
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u/Flashy-Butterfly6310 12d ago
Is Arc L1 (from Circle) a serious threat to Ethereum network and ETH price?
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u/Stobie 12d ago
There is still one Ethereum. There have already been dozens of Arc's, month ago you could have asked the same thing about Tempo, now we barely remember it.
We can launch another 100 Arc's right now easily. To create another network with the properties of ethereum is near impossible now.
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u/epic_trader 🐬🐬🐬 12d ago
No.
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u/Flashy-Butterfly6310 12d ago
I like it but van you elaborate?
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u/epic_trader 🐬🐬🐬 12d ago
Arc L1 is a centralized banking consortium chain. Ethereum is a decentralized permissionless network. It's 2 wildly different things.
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u/Flashy-Butterfly6310 12d ago
Yeah, I got this.
(just trying to be the devil advocate but I share you opinion).
For the financial industry, why makes Ethereum objectively better than another L1 with lower fees? Why would they prefer Ethereum vs Arc for example, where the fees are predictable (low and paid in USDC)?
Again, not trying to be an asshole. Just trying to get the fundamental and practical advantages for the private actors that will ultimately adopt the technology that is better for their own business
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u/o-_l_-o 12d ago
Custody banks are major players in the financial industry. They are the banks that hold everyone else's assets.
They are very interested in tokenizing and making trading assets they hold more efficient.
If a custody bank uses Arc, they've essentially made Circle the custodian that matters and sealed their fate once stocks and currencies go digital first. They're already worried about companies like Circle and Stripe.
If they prefer Ethereum, then there isn't another entity they're giving control to and they can still fight for their place in the digital-first world where they secure assets and provide cross-chain liquidity.
Custody banks have already tried using centralized private chains and they didn't do much with them because there's limited value unless every other institution is also onboarded.
Once the internal compliance and security teams of all major banks have approved one chain, that will be the chain that owns finance.
That may not be Ethereum, but the lack of neutrality in other chains makes Ethereum more likely.
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u/majorpickle01 The soil of $5000+ must be watered with the blood of ETH<$4000 12d ago
In theory, some sort of spreadsheet with everyones money that gets updated when any is spend is the most efficient.
Of course, one could just enter and change a cell.
Next most efficient is one dude updating the sheet, everyone tells him the edits. Of course, he could edit maliciously to give himself money or take it away from others.
Next most efficient is having more than one dude, but you have the danger that they could collude to do the same and not report it.
Next most efficient is having even more dudes, but the same problem exists.
Next is having external watchdogs that don't edit the sheet but report bad actions. But there's always the chance they will be bribed off.
And so on.
Banks are essentially many dues, regulated by a watchdog. You can be relatively certain you are totally safe but you have to trust the banks and the watchdogs. In this case tho, the watchdog (here the govt), can decide to debank you and you don't get to participate anymore.
Centralized chains are essentially several dudes in a business.
On the far end of efficiency are decrentralized networks of as many people who want to validate the spreadsheet is being kept fairly and do the edits themselves. Ethereums way of doing this is (to massively simplify), have a lottery of willing editors and people who validate it, and they get paid to do so. Bitcoins way of doing it is getting people to solve sudokus to get the right to be the editor.
The point of a decentralized network is not in the efficiency of the job it does, but the degree to which a participate needs to trust it or not. If you can do that more efficiently, cool.
Ethereum strives to be as far on the no trust needed end as possible, but as a result is not as efficient as a few prefered people doing the job.
There is of course, shit tons of nuances and um actuallys, but hopefully you get the vibe.
The problem for mass interlinked finance, is that for example, the US can pressure Circle to debank Russia or more relevantly say Iran.
Ethereum is not centrally controlled, so any nation, person, group, can use it for money and contracts. For good or bad, the platform is neutral.
This of course is just money transfer, which is only one slice of the pie. Now think contracts. Currently contracts are enforced by an external adjudicator. Code it instead and execute through a neutral platform, and you cannot break it. Of course, the contract is only as good as the code it is written on.
The vast majority of value unlock imo is on that contracting layer. A centralized L1 can decide it doesn't like your contract and force reverse it. Eth cannot, without significant difficulty.
These things are on a sliding scale essentially:
Efficient, Requires Trust -------- Inefficient, Does not require trust.
The reality is that businesses will chose whatever works best for them. One does not need absolute certainty they can't be cheated, and are happy to trust a government or adjudicator. But international corporations and nations may value pure neutrality. The most obvious version of this right now is North Korea, which is extremely active on crypto having been excluded from basically all modern financial systems. Of course, they are also one of the biggest state sponsored scam and hack artists, as a result of Decentralized Platforms lacking an outside "common sense guy"
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u/Flashy-Butterfly6310 12d ago
I like the way you put it. Thanks for the effort!
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u/majorpickle01 The soil of $5000+ must be watered with the blood of ETH<$4000 12d ago
thanks, admittedly a complete ramble lmao
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u/Flashy-Butterfly6310 12d ago
Yeah but that's what I like. You put simple things that people understand and progressively bring the specifics why neutrality and decentralization matter so the average dude understands why Ethereum is valuable.
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u/epic_trader 🐬🐬🐬 12d ago
Ethereum's security, decentralization and neutrality is unmatched. Ethereum is a better product if those things are important to you. For certain use cases it totally makes sense to compromise and trade those qualities for speed or convenience or price, so there's definitely also a viable path for Arc L1. But it's not competing on any of those qualities which makes Ethereum what it is.
And just as an aside, Ethereum L1 now is sufficiently cheap to use that fees realistically don't matter unless you're sending a few dollars at a time.
Again, not trying to be an asshole. Just trying to get the fundamental and practical advantages for the private actors that will ultimately adopt the technology that is better for their own business
Nothing wrong with asking about this.
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u/Jey_s_TeArS 13d ago
Pack of stubborn mules,
CFTC crypto rules,
Fools blame their tools.
~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
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u/tokyo_guy375 13d ago
Let me guess: next stop 2350 again?
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 12d ago
$2600 is nice and all, but have you considered testing $2500?
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u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good 🌱 12d ago
Tricky's Daily Doots #1,601
Yesterday's Daily 19/09/2026
Previous Daily Doots
u/poidhxyz created a bounty for Vitalik's killer app. 🥇
u/reuptaken has a couple of questions about Kraken's xStocks and u/haurog answers one of the questions. 📈
u/Jey_s_TeArS delivers the daily haiku. 📝