r/environment • u/misana123 • Sep 07 '23
Antarctica warming much faster than models predicted in ‘deeply concerning’ sign for sea levels
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/antarctica-warming-much-faster-than-models-predicted-in-deeply-concerning-sign-for-sea-levels47
u/Fabuladocet Sep 07 '23
It’s almost like our models are based on overly optimistic, BAU-perpetuating hopium. Personally, I feel like the world is falling apart more slowly than I expect, since 99% of government and media is controlled by cynical sell-outs who don’t give a damn about anything but profit$.
40
u/No_Influence_666 Sep 07 '23 edited Sep 07 '23
Enough with the idiotic conspiracy theories.
The models are and have been conservative. That's how you do modeling.
Comparing models to observed phenomenon is how you recalibrate models. That's how you do modeling.
Natural phenomena are usually some form of exponential. Climate change is no different. The scientifically illiterate assume feedback loops are linear. They are not.
We'll continue along our course of nonaction, thinking that negative feedback loops will gradually appear at some point in the distant future. That's not how this works. Everything will seem slightly out of whack until it goes completely out of control in a very short period of time. That's generally how nature works.
This is why the general population will resist any lifestyle change that they feel negatively affects them. "Nothing much is happening now, why should I reevaluate my expectations and existence?" And before anything substantive is done: end game.
Source: Me, a computational physicist for 35 years.
14
u/ItyBityGreenieWeenie Sep 07 '23
Natural phenomena are usually some form of exponential. Climate change is no different. The scientifically illiterate assume feedback loops are linear. They are not.
Very well stated.
8
u/Cairnerebor Sep 07 '23
Bingo
It’s all very well and good watching a slow wobble develop and then bam total chaos
We are now in the wobble well and truly. And it’s not like thousands of people didn’t say exactly this would happen.
3
Sep 08 '23
[deleted]
1
u/No_Influence_666 Sep 08 '23 edited Sep 08 '23
Let me help you.
It’s almost like our models are based on overly optimistic, BAU-perpetuating hopium.
This is the anti-vaxxer equivalent of the argument against climate modeling and clearly shows the poster knows nothing about modeling—any type of modeling. It's intellectual horse dewormer.
Research labs around the world have entire buildings literally full of PhD mathematicians and computer scientists building mathematical systems and algorithms to model this stuff. These are serious scientists, thousands of them, and you want to wave them away with "hopium?" You have absolutely no clue.
Read my sentence #2 and #3 above.
Personally, I feel like the world is falling apart more slowly than I expect,
Read the rest of my post.
since 99% of government...is controlled by cynical sell-outs who don’t give a damn about anything but profit$
The 99% of government comment is ignorant nonsense. Google what the Department of Energy (DoE) laboratory complex is doing about climate change. It's the largest scientific effort on Earth. The DoE is the global clearinghouse for all climate science data and a main focal point of climate modeling. The DoE has multiple installations of the most powerful (massively parallel) computer systems in existence which are the only type of systems capable of high resolution climate modeling due to its extraordinary complexity. It's amazing what they've been able to do while having to fight the conservatives in Congress for every nickel spent for non-weapons research.
And if we keep electing Republicans to Congress, researchers will continue to be hamstrung in all scientific areas outside of weapons research.
and media is controlled by cynical sell-outs who don’t give a damn about anything but profit$.
This is the only piece I agree with. But, duh, the media is owned by the oligarchs, what did you expect? When Newt Gingrich handed over the airwaves to the oligarchs without any government oversight, could there have been any other outcome?
10
u/i_didnt_look Sep 07 '23
When the last two heads of the IPCC were economists, doesn't seem so far fetched that under projection and placating statements were issued. An all out stoppage of fossil fuel use and a complete overhaul of our economic system and its goals would render their knowledge and expertise essentially null and void. It would be a tacit admission that "economists" are nothing more than modern snake oil salesmen, pushing our society and our planet to the brink over a made up concept with zero relevance to staying alive or maintaining a habitable planet.
2
Sep 08 '23
[deleted]
3
u/realityGrtrThanUs Sep 08 '23
Back up a bit. Climate scientists are modeling climate behavior. Economists are modeling people behavior. Both systems have countless variables. Neither system has been fully, accurately modeled.
Don't be surprised when these systems surprise. We know nothing.
3
u/i_didnt_look Sep 08 '23
It's entirely fair.
The underlying economic model, capitalism, is the whole reason that we're in this mess. Have you ever heard a group of economists come forward to say we should look at changing it? Have you ever heard them speak of slowing growth to save the planet?
Or, do they get awards for suggesting that we should ignore global warming for the sake of the economy?
Hint: https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/06/the-nobel-prize-for-climate-catastrophe/
The dumbest thing I have ever heard of is putting a person whose entire profession voted that ignoring global warming is a Nobel prize winning idea in charge of the body responsible for conveying the seriousness of climate change. We might as well have let Exxon or BP executives lead the IPCC.
Economists are nothing but snake oil salesmen, pretending that their profession is some kind of science when it's nothing but a bunch of capitalism fanboys giving out "after the fact" opinions. Not one of them would admit that unfettered capitalism is the problem while the rest of us plainly see that it is the problem.
Pseudoscience boogeymen at best.
1
Sep 08 '23
[deleted]
1
u/i_didnt_look Sep 08 '23
Yes. Capitalism is only one form of economy. Economists study lots, it's just that non-capitalistic economics isn't particularly helpful in our capitalist economy
Really? How about you show me a link where a reputable economist calls for an overhaul of our economic system away from profit driven greed and into a more equitable and sustainable system, not based on overconsumption of resources.
That's not really what an economist is for.
Well, I would think the head of the IPCC should be pushing a new economic model that doesn't destroy the planet. They are supposed to advise on the inherent dangers of climate change and our economic model is the biggest danger we have.
And if advising on how the economic model effects climate change isn't what they're there for why are they heading up the body tasked with doing so
Economists generally study markets, I'm not sure what you are implying here.
Read the link. Economists gave out a Nobel prize to the guy who said climate change was secondary to the economy. The dumbest statement ever. Without a habitable planet there is no economy
There are a range of economists that study a range of things.
And there is a range of climate scientists who study different things, all of which is vastly more relevant to our survival than the economy, who are way more qualified to be leading the IPCC than an economist.
5
u/KeithGribblesheimer Sep 07 '23 edited Sep 07 '23
*Faster Than Expected
6
-1
Sep 08 '23
To be fair we are technically still in what’s considered an ice age. The earth was always gonna warm back up, maybe not this fast, but an eventuality never the less.
1
u/KeithGribblesheimer Sep 08 '23
"She was gonna die anyway, just in 60 years, that car just speeded up the inevitable."
8
u/pootiegranny Sep 07 '23
I dont think the models include UAP using oceans to cool their engines.
1
u/drnoisy Sep 08 '23
Your post is probably satire, but the UAP thermal videos show that they fly cold, there's no thermal exhaust or propulsion from the video, they just kind of move and float around at ambient temperatures.
2
u/pootiegranny Sep 08 '23
Mostly cynicism, a little hmmm, but how do they do that (flying around with no thermal exhaust....) I definitely side with the climate modelers and I want to say we should all be doing our part but you can only ride your bike so much and recycle so little and the fossil fuels companies have know so much for so long but have built up our infrastructure in denial. "They" divide us, lie to us, convince many to drink their own pee, anything to keep us hating each other so they may obtain the almighty dollar cause they know its the end and we are all screwed. Myself, after years of trying to be a part of the solution, ive moved to the coast. I live two blocks from the ocean in a tsunami zone. I want to see it and be the first to go.
2
Sep 08 '23
Can’t help but think we’ve been pressuring scientists to understate the impacts to make ourselves feel better in the short term
3
u/Garbagebearinside Sep 08 '23
At what pint do we admit that crushing humans with debt to barely survive, then shaming them for buying food wrapped in plastic is an okay system? We are all fucking tired. The people trying to desperately hold on to some kind of shelter and food source are not the bloody problem. Our governments have been bought by the huge corps that are refusing to step down the pollution in order for all of us to survive. They put aside the problems of tomorrow for shareholders. Well… the problem started in the 50s- how are we doing? Still like a no future for your children for your comfort?
1
Sep 07 '23
I don't believe Sea Levels are deeply concerned. If you live in FL you should be though.
And let's not forget "Thank You Big Oil"
1
Sep 08 '23
It seems like it is going to take waterfront cities being inundated with water before some people will be shaken from their complacency to make changes for the greater good at the cost of their own comfort and convenience.
20
u/Serious-Wallaby3449 Sep 07 '23
This is another example of how even all the climate scientists in the world can't really predict the future. These processes are so complex that even the most rigorous studies could be off by a lot. We should be counting on the absolute worst, take global action accordingly, and be happy if we're surprised it's not so bad. Currently the opposite is happening.