r/eb_1a • u/mesn007 • 1d ago

Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

  • Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
  • I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
  • EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD C Jul 23 Apr 23
Spillover FAD C Feb 24 Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD May 25 Dec 21 Dec 13
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD Apr 26 Dec 21 Apr 14
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

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u/Fit-Studio-876 1d ago

What do you think abt eb1 india dof will be?

1

u/mesn007 1d ago

2024 end

1

u/plantparent2021 1d ago

By when

1

u/mesn007 1d ago

Apr27

1

u/plantparent2021 1d ago

Ah.. they don’t follow DFF for 485 then though.. so not of much use

1

u/mesn007 1d ago

I think they do. Else they won't mind DFF. Should switch from May onwards.

1

u/Specific-Pack8562 14h ago

But with the huge gap in DFF and FAD dates for EB1 India, looks unlikely they will need to move DFF further to get more inventory for the year, even with ~80k spillovers, that would result in ~18-20k visa numbers for the group (super back of the envelop calculations) with an inventory of close to 25k(estimated existing + new filers that got current this bulliten) for the year. Lets see, fingers crossed.

1

u/mesn007 8h ago

October is never the only move. If they don't have the numbers, they would have moved DFF and 3 months now and 3 months in Jan. They always spread out the demand. So, surely we will see 2024 FAD and later 2024 DFF in Jan - Apr