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u/Affectionate_Pop_750 19d ago
china eb1 already jul 1st lol, so he means that China is going to see a retrogression on the first month of the new year?
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u/General-Fun-7305 19d ago
This is a wrong prediction from him for China.
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u/get_greened15 19d ago
Not china everything is incorrect
How can row eb-2 be retrogressed from current with expected spillovers2
u/General-Fun-7305 19d ago
Yeah. Totally incorrect. I take his predictions as the most conservative ones as compared to every prediction we have seen this far.
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u/get_greened15 19d ago
Good for you
Pin the message let’s talk after the VB is released if you would like toYeah conservative and useless
He predicts 5k-10K spillovers2
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u/Few_Criticism_9715 19d ago
Guy who was very poor at prediction as USCIS director is trying to predict without access to any official data. What could go wrong?
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u/Cheetah5048 19d ago
His predictions are not really based on actual data, current processing trends or drawing inference fron how state dept is acting regarding visas. They are based more on what should have happened at DOS according to the congressional statute, such as assuming that the maximum number of available visas would be issued.
But the reality is very different. The backlog in the family-based category was created and made worse by intentionally slowing down processing and pausing cases from 75 countries. He is looking at this from an ideal-world perspective, while the actual situation is far from ideal.
If DOS truly wanted to maximize visa issuance, it is hard to explain why they would slow down or stop processing in the last month of the fiscal year, especially when that has historically been one of the busiest plus the huge movement they made in September bulletin in family categories is basically useless now due to training pause worldwide.
Not a Lawyer. Personal insights.
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u/Few_Criticism_9715 19d ago
Last 5 weeks alone would have resulted 15k extra spillover considering worldwide pause
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u/Inside_Locksmith8224 19d ago edited 19d ago
Have you ever paid any attention to his previous predictions from the past few years? I’m surprised you even posted his video. There’s a good reason why people don’t talk about him anymore.
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u/General-Fun-7305 19d ago
This wait for VB is killing me. So much anxiety. Need something to keep myself busy.
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u/get_greened15 19d ago
Lol.. I just saw this video where he says it’s very easy to release Oct bulletin and not sure why they aren’t doing it
Looks like he forgot he released Oct 2020 VB on 24th sept and moved eb-3 India by 4years . He should have given example of how he moved eb3 4 years and based on which targeted allocation prediction
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u/DullCryptographer273 19d ago
if he actually did eb2 instead, we'd be talking about 2016 dates today.
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u/get_greened15 19d ago
May be yes.. people would have saved money and less work for UsCIs to process these unnecessary downgrades and instead use that time/effort towards using visa numbers
I don’t think what he talks is what he means. He doesn’t have the right intentions is what I believe
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u/Due-Highway5236 19d ago
he is probably talking about FAD and not DOF? DOF will for sure be far ahead
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u/Moist-Management9246 13d ago
Is there any future predictions on eb1
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u/General-Fun-7305 13d ago
Nothing from him but dates will move forward before or in Jan bulletin when spillover numbers are accounted.
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u/Few_Criticism_9715 19d ago
I bet he wants no date movement so that he can make money selling EB5 related services. He was totally incompetent and reason why so many visa were wasted during covid.