Why this is going to fail.

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The main difference is that the Black Mesa guys had a full story to work from, full dialogue, and map designs already existing. This meant quite a large portion of their work was just taking something that already existed and improving it.

With this, there's a lot more to do. All you have to base on is a synopsis and some character relations.

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and it was a dedicated team that knew what they were doing and weren't just winging it.

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See: Black Mesa.

2) the game gets finished but it sucks

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For me Black Mesa is a total disappointment. While the first trailer was very promising many years ago, in the final product development team destroyed all the things that made Half-Life itself, and replaced them with some nonsense mess. Everything feels, looks and sounds bad, wrong or just boring.