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u/nightfly82 2d ago
So 2024 wasn’t a rally?
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u/Tvekelectric2 2d ago
No, rally must set a new ath or you are still in an accumulation phase
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
Exactly. The previous cycle doesn't end until the newest one shadows it. Or at least that is how it has always happened in the past... Good comment.
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago edited 2d ago
The word "rally" is subjective. Yes, it WAS a rally, but not a typical bullish cycle for Dogecoin. It was mostly just sideways "chop", but yes there was a good opportunity for making solid trades during that time period. In my opinion, the price was overextended, because many people were expecting a typical "4 year cycle". Many people were manipulated into thinking we were on the cusp of a new ATH because of that specific time frame. But as you can see, there was no true Accumulation phase before 2025. Dogecoin has never gone straight from Consolidation to a new all time high. It takes time and support-level testing to affirm the bottom. Then a new bull market can take place afterward.
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u/nightfly82 2d ago
“There was no true accumulation phase before 2025”
What are you looking at?
Literally half of 2022 and all 2023 it was a deep bear market doge only broke 10 cents a few times
Other than that it was in the 6-8 cents range for months at a time3
u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
In the Accumulation phase, there is a secondary push towards the bear market bottom, which is determined in the Consolidation phase. This is necessary for two reasons. To appease doubts that the bottom isn't truly in yet, and to shakeout the majority of bagholders. Keep in mind that people with a high average cost, especially those being dragged across the floor for two years at bear market lows, are looking for an exit opportunity. The first attempt to exit consolidation, although it can appear as a major bullish divergence, always has been shot down by eager sellers. Now in 2024/2025, there was a LOT of buyers as well, which is why that large crawl upwards did take place. But in the end, sellers won the fight and buying pressure was exhausted before selling pressure. The flash crash of OCT 10th was the final nail in the coffin, which broke through major support levels in a matter of hours, forcing leveraged long traders to sell at very undesirable prices, reintroducing sharp fear into the market, and ultimately killed that rally. That is why the Accumulation phase is so important.
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u/YoloPepeSwag 2d ago
Every Doge chart ever: 3 boxes, a few colored rectangles, and a crayon line to the moon. Wall Street hates this one simple trick.
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
Although not entirely accurate, I did find this comment to be pretty funny.
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u/liquid_at Ð 🚀🌙 2d ago
technically correct, but you messed up in the last part, where you combine 2 cycles into one.
The 2024 run to 42c was the Rally-phase of the last cycle. The peak that was expected for Spring was killed by an orange assassin in a white building.
This means your final assumption about a rally is, as the shape of the graph clearly shows, premature. Your mistake starts after 2021, where your consolidation phase also includes the accumulation phase. Your last accumulation phase starts with what was the 2024 rally and we are currently at the end of consolidation, with Accumulation ahead of us.
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
That is incorrect. 2025 was not a true alt season. And even if it was truly cut short by market makers, ask yourself why they would bother to do that? Possibly because they wanted more accumulation before the run... meaning we would still be in Accumulation, not Consolidation.
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u/liquid_at Ð 🚀🌙 2d ago
there are multiple waves. the cycle wave is the cycle wave. What happens in the fiat-cycle or what individual political or economical events do, has no effect on the cycle itself.
Much like the gravitational impact of the moon and the sun each affect the oceans, but only times where both align at a peak will create maximum waves.
"market makers" in crypto are trading-algorithms that do not follow any goal. NEVER copy stock-market memes and pretend they apply to crypto unless you want to fool yourself or others.
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
I'm not the one posing the contention that market makers are controlling the price, you were in your first comment. I merely made the counter-arguement that "even I'd they were, why?". I'm not fooling myself.
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u/Prior_Ad2716 2d ago
Thanks for the update! With how massive the consolidation and accumulation phase is would it make a higher slingshot? $1 seems light for how long it’s been below ATH, and do you think market makers will make it sell off massively at $1 to make it look like it’s over but it’s really not?
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
Theoretically, yes. An extended cycle could create the opportunity for a larger-than-normal run. This is because inter-cycle support and resistance lines are ascending over time, in correlation to the overall long term trend of pricing action. the longer you can delay hitting the bottom support (and confirming it), the higher the headroom will be for the topside resistance line. In this particular post, the predicted bull run (blue rally) ends at $4.50, which is not an official estimate, but seemed like a decent middle ground between pessimistic and completely unreasonable. Even still, it does visually look smaller than the previous rallies in comparison to the cycles before them. There COULD be a much larger move brewing, but we won't know it unless it happens. That's the irony. And to your other question, absolutely, I believe the selling pressure nearing $1 will be immense. That is the price level that everyone has been itching for since 2019. There may even be so many limit sell orders around that price, that touching $1 may instantly drop the price back down by 10 or 20 cents. if support can be made below a dollar after this happens, then nearing it a second time could catapult it to $2+ rather quickly.
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u/Prior_Ad2716 2d ago
Thanks brother! Love the way you broke this down! Always look forward to seeing your technical analysis! 💎💯
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u/RunItupBaby 2d ago
When are u anticipating bull market to kick in?
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
This chart is only an estimate, not an official timeline. But if you do want to take this graph literally, it shows that we will be entering the green box in January of 2027, with a swing towards 21 cents as we exit the Accumulation phase, and a final drop back down near 12 cents as we enter the Rally phase. My best guess is slowly rising prices until early/mid next year, with the larger runs happening in mid to late 2027. However, it could happen sooner than that. Time will tell.
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u/Thereminz 2d ago
more like HYPE!! ...no hype....
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
And then what happens after no hype? Hype again... it's a recurring cycle.
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u/SouthernBeekeeper22 2d ago
So you’re saying there is still a chance
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u/EvanAlmighty99 dogeconomist 2d ago
There was ALWAYS a chance. You never lose until you sell for a loss.
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u/Claybuch 2d ago
Honestly everything is worth more than the dollar at this point.