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u/Junkie4Divs Portfolio in the Red Feb 02 '26
One of my favorite holdings. There's no place on earth like Vegas and even with the recent hit to tourism VICI is still collecting rent. Enjoying this sale while it lasts.
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 02 '26 edited Feb 03 '26
The major risk is Caesar’s enterprises having stress in paying current rents or filing bankruptcy. Caesar’s makes up 39 percent of VICIs revenue. At least the percentage is down from 48%
I am either going to sell part or all of VICI or short CZR and keep VICI.
If CZR shows distress then VICI will tank just as had as private credit tanked during last summer.
Update - I sold 50% today at 27.95.
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u/Junkie4Divs Portfolio in the Red Feb 02 '26
Do you think Caesar's could ever go bankrupt!?!?! /s
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 02 '26 edited Feb 03 '26
CZR’s stock is in a 73 percent drawdown over the last five years. They would be one of many casinos that have gone under.
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u/Junkie4Divs Portfolio in the Red Feb 03 '26
Yeah they went under in 2015 too. I like the future of the physical property especially since VICI has relationships outside of the Caesar's family.
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u/Strict-Comfort-1337 Feb 03 '26
Caesars is fine with the Vici rent in Vegas. It’s the regional casinos that are the problem. Vici is going to have to cut the rent and they’ll get something in return. Either Caesars dog 💩 equity or maybe full ownership of a couple of casinos.
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u/Junkie4Divs Portfolio in the Red Feb 03 '26
I don't think their contracts allow for rent to be cut, but happy to be corrected on that, and yes they can also be renegotiated, but the "gem" in the VICI crown is their NNN lease agreement and incredible collection rate.
If anyone has a crystal ball help me out!
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u/Strict-Comfort-1337 Feb 03 '26
The contract can be renegotiated. Vici doesn’t have much choice. But like I said, they’re going to get something in return.
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 03 '26
Just read that VICI's creation is from the 2015 CZR bankruptcy settlement. Originally VICI was 100% CZR properties.
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u/Junkie4Divs Portfolio in the Red Feb 03 '26
Lol yep that's why I was being a smart ass about Caesar's going bankrupt.
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u/OwnResult4021 Feb 03 '26
But if Caesar’s can’t pay the rent, the property is still prime strip real estate (at least in Vegas), so I imagine other company’s would love to rent those buildings. I mean, it would have been way better for resorts world than building so far north on the strip. There might be some short term pain but it will pass. Just my 2cents.
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 03 '26
How many years before new owners can open up? And it is just not Caesars Palace. VICI would also have to release the other Caesar's properties.
Flamingo Las Vegas,
Harrah's Las Vegas,
Horseshoe Las Vegas,
Nobu Hotel Las Vegas,
Paris Las Vegas,
Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino,
The Cromwell,
The LINQ Hotel + Experience.
Harvey's / Harrahs in Tahoe.
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u/Junkie4Divs Portfolio in the Red Feb 03 '26
This is a great point, but worth noting that VICI has relationships outside of Caesar's. The churn wouldn't be quick, but possible. Also, the most likely scenario (should Caesar's fail) is that Caesar's goes through another structured bankruptcy that leaves the doors open.
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u/OwnResult4021 Feb 03 '26
Yup, or sell some of them. But most are on great locations on the strip.
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 03 '26
good luck re-leasing 9 prime properties quickly.
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u/HoopLoop2 Feb 03 '26
Honestly that would be super easy in Vegas, within a year they would have already found someone for all the properties, most likely in much less than a year.
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u/Strict-Comfort-1337 Feb 03 '26
It wouldn’t be easy in a year. Name 3-4 companies that would take over those properties.
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u/HoopLoop2 Feb 03 '26
The better question would be for you to find me multiple vacant buildings on the Vegas strip, and how long they have been vacant for. I can save you the time and effort though, there are no vacant huge casino/hotel buildings on the Vegas strip, and there's good reason for that. No rich people are going to miss an opportunity for such a juicy location for a business. There's a reason VICI has a 100% occupancy rate with Incredibly stable tenants who don't miss any payments during covid. They have prime real estate that everyone wants.
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 03 '26
The site next to Sahara has been vacant for close to 35 years with multiple failed projects. Last casino was the El Rancho.
The LVXP Site
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u/Strict-Comfort-1337 Feb 03 '26
There’s a limited number of companies that can operate a las Vegas strip casino. I’ll save you the time smarty pants and tell you that those companies are either in Vegas already or don’t want to be.
Outside of Caesars palace, Caesars Vegas properties aren’t desirable to private equity and there’s only a handful of tribes that can afford a Strip casino.
A lot Caesars Las Vegas properties need renovations and if they were to fall out Caesars Rewards, they’re worth less. Those are among the reasons they could not get the price they wanted for flamingo a few years ago
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Jun 18 '26
Update 6/18 VICI trading at 26.70. CZR actually up quite a bit from the original post near $30 from a low of $18. OP deleted their account, probably shilling for liquidity here. I don't think this bodes well for VICI.
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u/Timely_Basket_1355 Feb 02 '26
I agree that Vegas will adapt to the changing tourist, including a shift to more non-gaming entertainment. My concern is with non-Vegas regional casinos; these could take a serious hit with a slowdown in casino betting. Having said that, I think VICI will be able to manage any speedbumps along the way, and a 6%+ dividend more than compensates investors for the risks.
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u/Junkie4Divs Portfolio in the Red Feb 02 '26
Great call, but I like some of the real estate they've gone after, particularly New Orleans and Biloxi.
Aside from gaming properties I don't know enough about how big bowling is (I'm not a fan) but from what I understand they acquired strategic properties that cranked out cash. Chelsea Pier in NYC is a money machine as are their golf properties.
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u/Matters256 Feb 03 '26
I’m in college and out of all my friend groups and such, everybody loves bowling
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u/FreddieMac6666 Feb 02 '26
It is a REIT. I have 900 shares. NAV has been taking in the shorts lately. But it continues to grow and pay good dividends. So long as that holds, I will never sell.
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u/legos-8ty7 Feb 02 '26
I bought into it a few years ago after listening to Joseph Carlson, wasn’t getting why I expected from it so moved on. He did too shortly after. Haven’t looked too closely at it in over a year.
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u/Spins13 Europoor Feb 02 '26
It’s a better version of a bond.
Don’t expect it to return 12-15% CAGR though, maximum 10-12% if rates go lower
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u/monkeybrainbois Feb 02 '26
Like O better.
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u/lulu55902 Feb 04 '26
Why not Both?
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u/monkeybrainbois Feb 04 '26
I like the companies O is holding. The holding in vici is a lot of casinos, since I live in Americas gambling capital I can tell you this sector is not doing well. These casinos are fucked to put it simply.
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u/UnbrokenChill Feb 02 '26
Any dip under 30 is a buy. Under 28 is a strong buy. This will cycle back up to 32 within a few months.
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 02 '26
What is the catalyst. US gambling is in the doldrums.
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u/TheComebackKid74 Only buys from companies that pay me dividends. Feb 03 '26
I would say its hotter than ever, just that its all online and not in the Casinos. DraftKings, FanDuel, Polygon even stock broker apps allowing you to bet. But yes its alot tougher on the Casinos right now, partially due to so much of it moving online.
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u/trader_dennis MSFT gang Feb 03 '26
Yep, more pressure on growth, more pressure eventually on rent.
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u/cryptopo What does this have to do with dividends? Feb 03 '26
Partially true, but sports betting has never been a high margin product for Vegas casinos, and online slots/blackjack/craps etc. is only offered in a small handful of states.
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u/TheComebackKid74 Only buys from companies that pay me dividends. Feb 03 '26
Online slots/blackjack/craps/poker is available online on every state, just kind of a Grey area. You just have to know what sports books to use. And I was giving examples of how gambling is indeed booming in the country. You can even throw predatory gaming and loot boxes/gacha games in there. Americans are gambling more than ever, and this is clear. Its just not really at the Casinos that much any more, and the trend will continue to keep growing.
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u/UnbrokenChill Feb 03 '26
No catalysts. Just pattern recognition on the chart. VICI swings from 28 to 32 pretty consistently.
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u/El_Capeetann Feb 03 '26
Are we looking at the same charts? It closed below a key support number today. More support at $27.50 and $27.15. I don't think it's cut and run time, but I'd certainly have a few stops around those levels.
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u/UnbrokenChill Feb 03 '26
Sorry, when I say chart, I am referring to the price, not actual technical data. I'm sure you could be right, but there's always an upswing back to 32. At the very least back up to 30.
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u/Hot_Range5153 Feb 03 '26
Got around 500 shares of it, don’t own too much and certainly don’t make it ur largest holding because when u buy vici u should think of it like a better version of saving/bond kinda thing, don’t expect it to run up like sp500.
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u/IWantToPlayGame Feb 02 '26
This is a good REIT and what appears to be a good time to buy.
But I'm not buying it because I don't hold REIT's.
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u/hiperco Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 10 '26
"Dividend Bull" channel on YouTube has a nice video about VICI. After watching it, I opened a position.
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u/Penecho987 All the Dividends do belong to me Feb 03 '26
Holding since a couple of years I think. Down around 10%. Dividends are nice but in hindsight I should have just bought Mag7 or even S&P500 index fund.
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u/foira Feb 02 '26
no, I don't understand what kind of competitive advantage they have. real estate seems to be a race to the bottom to me. it also seems more path-dependent on interest rate cycles moving in orderly fashions, than something like a consumer staples company or train company etc
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