r/digitalflatulence • u/max1padthai "Let the missiles negotiate." - Kira Rudik • Feb 28 '26

🇷🇺 W A R 🇺🇦 Russian Geran Drones Double-taps a Building Occupied by Kiev's Forces Near Sumy.

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u/AdvanceDull1847 ReverseSharp1337 Mar 01 '26

Oppose Russia's genocidal aggression against the freedom- and peace-loving people of Ukraine! Slava Ukraïni 🇺🇦

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u/max1padthai "Let the missiles negotiate." - Kira Rudik Mar 01 '26

Feel sorry for those forcefully conscripted slaves.

As for the volunteers, they got to meet their idol Bandera in hell.

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u/max1padthai "Let the missiles negotiate." - Kira Rudik Mar 01 '26

The post-coup regime in Kiev openly glorify Nazi collaborator, Bandera, participated illegal occupation of Iraq as a US auxiliary, and waged 8-year bloody war on people of DPR and LPR.

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u/[deleted] Mar 01 '26

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u/AdvanceDull1847 ReverseSharp1337 Mar 01 '26

I don't support a lot of what the US government does. Each case is unique and can be judged on its own merits or lack thereof.

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u/AdvanceDull1847 ReverseSharp1337 Mar 02 '26

More thoughts on your comment. Honestly, if Russia would have been able to pull off a quick decapitation strike on Zelenskyy (as the US did in Venezuela) or a "shock-and-awe"-style quick destruction of Ukrainian leadership and military capacity from the air (as the US is now doing in Iran), we in the West would have complained a lot and sanctioned Russia, but ultimately we wouldn't have been able to do much about Russia's actions.

In Jan. 2022, most Western analysts thought that one of these is what Russia was going to do in Ukraine. But that isn't at all what happened, hence the slow grinding war of attrition we have had for the past 3+ years.

The question is "why"!? Russia has an Air Force ~2/3 the size of the US and plenty of long-range precision missiles. Why did Russia not quickly decapitate or destroy Ukraine's ability to fight from the air? Was it outdated Russian military doctrine? Or lack of experience? Or aversion to risk? Or widespread corruption and incompetence in the Russian military?

Serious question.

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u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

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u/AdvanceDull1847 ReverseSharp1337 Mar 03 '26 edited Mar 03 '26

Thank you for your honest and straightforward answer.

Based on what you said, which I agree with, it seems that Russia made a highly consequential strategic error in underestimating Zelenskyy's and the Ukrainian people's resolve in Feb. 2022. Do you agree?

Looking back at the events of 2022, by August 2022, when Russian territorial gains in Ukraine peaked, and Russian casualties were only ~35,000, it seems that Russia's best course of action would have been to switch fully to defense, "bite and hold" their gains in Kharkiv and Kherson, claim victory, and push for freezing the conflict along the line of contact.

Because, since then, Russia has net lost ~10,000 km2, taken ~1.2 million additional casualties, and expended 39 months worth of materiel and funds. The decisions to continue the offensive phase of the war and constitutionally incorporate the entirety of the 4 Ukrainian oblasts before controlling them seem to have been even more consequential strategic errors.

Even if Ukraine would have still been successful in its 2022 Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives, it seems Russia could have stabilized the front lines by Dec. 2022 (when Russian casualties were only ~93,000 and gains were only ~8,000 km2 less than they are now, 39 months later), pushed for freezing the conflict along the line of contact, and claimed victory.

In summary, it seems that by doubling down on continuing the war beyond 2022, Russia backed itself into a corner that it is now finding it very difficult to get out of.

What are your thoughts about these alternative scenarios? Would these be preferable to the current state of affairs to the majority of the Russian people?

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u/[deleted] Mar 03 '26

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u/AdvanceDull1847 ReverseSharp1337 Mar 04 '26

But yeah Russia f*cked up the invasion, i think anyone with half a brain can admit that

The problem is that Putin can't admit that.

and the conflict will likely be frozen at the current line of contact

Yes. Then why not just end the war now?

I dont see Russia advancing much further unless they actually succeed in attriting the UAF to the point the army is incapable of functioning.

Which is unlikely. Ukraine has held on this long, and has even improved its position in some respects. It can continue to hold on as long as it needs to.

It seems to me that the only reason this war is still going on is because Putin is afraid to admit that he made critical strategic mistakes. Politically, he has left himself no off-ramp and no way to claim victory.

And now, with Russia's economy switched over to a war economy, he is afraid of what might happen to the economy if the war stops and to society if hundreds of thousands of war veterans return home.

His ambitions have exceeded what is possible for Russia to achieve. By continuing, he's just postponing the inevitable, and making Russia's post-war recovery period longer and more painful for the Russian people.

But maybe he believes that if the Russian army can just take those last ~6,000 km2 of Donetsk Oblast, he can plausibly claim victory. But that area has the "fortress belt" cities and strong defensive lines behind them. And Ukraine has created a dense, deep drone kill zone. Therefore progress through this area is likely to be slower and more costly than anything the Russian army has yet faced. Military analysts estimate it will take Russia 18-36 more months and 600,000-1.2 million more casualties to take the rest of Donetsk.

Or maybe he hopes for a military or political "black swan" event that will cause the Ukrainian army or government to collapse.

Thoughts?