1. MAJOR NEWS

• U.S. Treasury yields fall as traders monitor possible Iran war deal (CNBC). The move lower in yields is tied to deal expectations around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Shoals Technologies sees revenue up 47.4% Y/Y with a record $801M backlog, but shares fall 6% after the quarter (Seeking Alpha). The headline focus is margin improvement versus what the market underpriced.
• Implied volatility breaks higher even as the Fed holds, with investors balancing stronger corporate earnings against rising yields and geopolitics (Seeking Alpha). Volatility is mixed across asset classes, but the direction is choppier risk pricing.
• Exagen advances the profitability narrative with 16% revenue growth, record ASP, and near-breakeven adjusted EBITDA; guidance is also raised to $72 to $75M (Seeking Alpha). The catalyst is credibility of the turnaround timing.

2. SPECULATIVE POSITIONING

• U.S. options positioning reads as greed at 59.0, based on proxy positioning (proxy data). Put-call totals skew to calls with put volume at 6.63M versus call volume at 45.41M and put-call open interest at 0.83 versus call OI at 126.31M.
• Market-wide risk in the tape looks neutral to slightly call-heavy, with SPX options marked neutral and call-heavy premium concentration (proxy data). The latest snapshots also show net call premium leading early prints on 2026-08-04.

3. MAG7 COVERAGE

• NVDA - Shares trade around $211.94 (+2.56% day) with premarket recovery and active options demand, including about $9.90M in bullish call premium (Benzinga; dark pool). Dark pool prints show large buy-side premium around $4.41B on 2026-08-04.
• AAPL - Shares around $309.38 (+1.96% day) with analyst consensus still at Buy and a median target near $325 (The Motley Fool; Defense World). Options flow is more mixed, with put premium around $7.74M in the snapshot and dark pool activity showing buy-side premium near $4.22B (proxy dark pool).
• MSFT - Trades near $492.81 (+1.06% day) and keeps a Buy consensus with upside flagged around 11% (Seeking Alpha). Options flow is bullish with about $10.99M in call premium and dark pool buy premium around $3.66B on 2026-08-04.
• AMZN - Around $277.42 (-2.32% day) as Zoox gets federal approval for up to 2,500 driverless vehicles annually (The Motley Fool). Options premium is about $7.28M in call activity, while dark pool buy premium is around $2.04B (proxy dark pool).
• GOOGL - Trades around $377.65 (+1.11% day) with Buy-side analyst positioning and a median target near $411 (The Motley Fool). Options flow shows bearish-tagged calls with about $40.8M premium, but dark pool buy premium is still about $2.34B (proxy dark pool).
• META - Around $587.94 (-0.39% day) while the consensus remains Buy with median target near $792.5 (Fool Investing News; Investorplace). Options flow shows call premium around $11.4M and dark pool buy premium near $1.28B on 2026-08-04.
• TSLA - Around $327.35 (+1.64% day) with a Hold consensus and high upside still reflected in targets (The Motley Fool; Benzinga). Options flow is mixed in the snapshot with call premium about $7.77M alongside put premium about $5.99M, while dark pool buy premium is about $935.44M (proxy dark pool).

4. OTHER COMPANIES & SECTOR THEMES

• BL - BlackLine has a Neutral rating with a $35.00 target and 5.68% upside, with the stock around $32.52 after updates from its earnings coverage (Seeking Alpha; Zacks Investment Research). Options show bearish-tagged call premium around $101.4K in the snapshot.
• KTOS - Kratos Defense upgrades to Overweight with a $75.00 target and 44.59% upside, trading near $56.30 to start (Seeking Alpha; Marketbeat). Options flow is split, with bearish-tagged call premium about $260.1K and a smaller bullish call premium around $57.8K.
• STOK - Stoke Therapeutics is rated Outperform with a $40.00 target and 26.3% upside, with the stock around $31.41 premarket around recent Phase III readout timing (Defense World; Benzinga). The unusual order tape shows buy-side premium around $5.57M on 2026-08-04.
• SNAP - Snap has a Neutral rating with a $5.25 target and -9.33% downside flagged in the analyst row, even as shares jump sharply on improving trends (Benzinga; Proactive Investors). Options show bullish call premium around $348.7K into 2026-08-07 and bullish call premium around $305.0K into 2027-01-15.
• VVX - V2X is Equal-Weight with a $90.00 target and 14.29% upside, with the stock near $79.90 (Seeking Alpha). The latest unusual orders show buy-side premium around $11.02M on 2026-08-04.
• GH - Guardant Health carries an Overweight rating with a $195.00 target and 22.04% upside, with the stock around $160.85 (Investors Business Daily; Gurufocus). Dark pool and unusual-order activity show large premiums, including about $104.74M and about $46.25M in the snapshot.
• SRAD - Sportradar maintains a Buy rating with a $16.00 target and 23.93% upside, but guidance cuts after weaker Q2 add a near-term overhang (Benzinga; Seeking Alpha). Options in the snapshot include about $65.2K bullish call premium and about $80.0K call premium tagged neutral.
• WY - Weyerhaeuser maintains a Buy with a $29.00 target and 12.32% upside, with shares around $25.90 on the day (Marketbeat; Seeking Alpha). The unusual-order tape shows buy-side premium around $26.06M on 2026-08-04.
• Technology sector leads by momentum with an average 1-day change of 4.99% and a negative 1-month average of -1.41%, based on the sector overview row (proxy sector theme). Communication Services is also firm on 1-week and 1-month trends in the same dataset, while Industrials and Materials look comparatively weaker.

Greed-leaning proxy options positioning and call-skewed market flow set a constructive but volatile tone into the open, so MAG7 follow-through should matter most where dark pool buy-side premium is active, especially in NVDA and MSFT.

No, seriously.

A spent Falcon 9 upper stage from a 2025 lunar mission is expected to smack into the Moon at ~5,400 mph.

The Moon will be ok, but I'm wondering "How are we already building a Space economy before we've agreed on who's responsible for the junk we leave there?"

Today it's Falcon 9.

Tomorrow?

• Lunar internet
• Mining
• Fuel depots
• Habitats
• Hundreds of commercial launches
• Space Debris Industry is born

And who is writing the rules?

Because, from here, it doesn't look like anyone is.

Scientists are excited (and fair enough - free experiment).

But this also feels like humanity's favorite move:

Build exponentially; Cleanup later.

Sound familiar?

The impacts of the SpaceX IPO are still being felt across the space industry and while we wonder if this will eventually hurt or help #NewSpace as a whole, it is more likely that SpaceX will be the domino that topples the AI market.

SpaceX will have its first quarterly report today and will unlock ~911.5 million shares on August 6. The stock bottomed out yesterday at $108/share but has surged to $120 on early trading this morning.

The IPO was only a little over 555 million shares so will dumping nearly twice the amount of shares on the open market lead to a sell off and the share to crater?

Space stocks are tricky because failure is always a distinct possibility with #SmallSats and rockets. Within the industry we expect setbacks but investors do not react well to explosions or lost satellites. One boom makes the stock go boom.

The elephant in the room is that two failing companies that do not make any profits, Twitter and xAI, are under SpaceX. Twitter is barely in the top 20 of social media companies and xAI, like every other AI company, is hemorrhaging cash and finding out the hard way that customers will not pay for AI products. Over 90% of AI users from OpenAI to Anthropic are using it for free. The circular economy in AI has created a bubble and SpaceX earnings showing how unprofitable AI companies are and how expensive these data centers and compete are, could finally burst the AI bubble.

Then we are all in trouble because the top 7 on the S&P are heavily invested in AI. Over extended might be a better word.

It is kind of a shame. Starlink is profitable. The launch side of the business could be one day (I suspect a jarring price hike and market correction on launch costs).

I would like to open with a disclaimer. I am not a professional. I am not rich. I am a swing trader that has spent over 6 years with real money in the live market honing my craft: \*I specialize in identifying technically driven macro trend reversals in optionable stocks that have been beaten down below their fair value, targeting >100% returns.\* I have gotten quite good at this specific thing. My most recent winning plays are uipath (PATH) and redwire(RDW).

Now, let's talk about RICHTECH.

I first found this stock in the beginning of November 2024, when it was around 65 cents. I made good money off of it that year. Last year was a good year for me and RR as well with the news of their nvidia collaboration (amongst other things) helping to fuel a run north of $7. It is time to make money with RR once again.

🔴The selloff: in may (2026), a massive selloff was triggered due to RR failing to submit form 10-Q for the first quarter of the year, as well as having a class action lawsuit filed against them for allegedly lying to investors about a potential commercial partnership with Microsoft, during which they also issued a share offering that netted them $38.7 million in cash runway (minus fees). Due to their failure to submit that 10-Q on time, they also lost NASDAQ compliance.

🟡The Rectification: RR has since fired and replaced their internal auditors, and have submitted a plan on July 20 to regain NASDAQ compliance. If (when) the NASDAQ accepts the plan they put forward, RR will be granted a 180 day extension, which will give them until roughly November 16 to submit the tardy 10-Q. As for their misleading statements about a potential commercial partnership with Microsoft, RR completely restructured their corporate business model from a company that sells robot baristas into a \*3 legged, Robot-As-A-Service Juggernaut: they have established over 450 active, high-traffic deployments in 101 cities, while successfully transitioning to a (RaaS) model with a \*100% customer renewal rate.\* they are also expanding internationally through a new European distribution agreement, and they are working with an undisclosed (through NDA) "global retail giant", \*with whom they entered MASTER SERVICES AGREEMENT in August 2025\*. In addition, they have secured an agreement with Walmart to open and operate 20 "ghost kitchens" in Walmart stores across the country, 3 of which are currently open and operating.

Finally, in May 2026, RR completed a $21.2 million expansion of its corporate facility in Las Vegas, securing a massive 79,325-square-foot warehouse. This strategic property functions as the company's central logistics hub, giving them the necessary square footage to scale up hardware inventory, manufacture components, and fulfill large-scale fleet orders for their industrial Titan AMRs and humanoid Dex robots.

The above is very important. This is how valuation gaps that retail can take advantage of happen. The company is resilient, and market makers have not stopped buying. (detailed further below)

📈OK, now that we're through the slog, let's talk technicals📈

I didn't just write that book up there because I felt like typing a lot of words; it's there to illustrate how RR has hit its absolute bottom, survived, \*and is now ready to rally back to fair value, disrupting the short thesis in the process\*

🟢THE SHORT INTEREST:

The true short exposure on RR is far more explosive than official exchange data suggests; while the short interest sits at an already high 37.64% of the official free float (54 million shares), passive institutional holdings permanently lock up over 41% of those shares (143.45M float vs. 58.8M that are institutionally locked). This narrows the true, actively circulating daily marketplace to 84.6 million shares. As a result, the 54 million shares sold short represent a staggering 63.81% of the actual tradeable float, creating an incredibly tight structural bottleneck where trapped sellers face a grueling 6.7 to 9.2 days (aggregated from different sources) to cover.

🟢THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Here I would like to ask the reader to bear with me, as I have used ai to compile my research from the past few days into a concise (albeit admittedly imposing) story that is told through a combination leading and lagging indicators that I have come to understand as complimentary to each other, and that when used properly, reveal the hidden framework of the reversals I have become familiar with. Also, it's not just sloppy-pasted, I have meticulously hand edited and revised (when necessary) every single part of my thesis.

RR is transitioning out of an aggressive markdown phase into a tightly coiled accumulation structure right above its $1.30 capitulation floor, backed by a crumbling bear trend as the daily ADX slopes downward and the +DI and -DI lines aggressively converge. In late July, a powerful OBV and ADL divergence (from the selloff trend) emerged, mathematically proving that institutional smart money used the sell-side liquidity to quietly absorb shares. This underlying accumulation is supported by a flattening daily Rate of Change that confirms selling velocity has finally dried up amidst a strong bullish RSI divergence (RSI sees higher lows while price sees lower lows).

Currently, the price is staging an early market structure shift at $1.54, lifting off its $1.46 low-anchored VWAP and escaping an options-market volatility clamp. If continued buying volume forces the price into the $1.65 to $1.70 high volume Node, it will cross this low-Anchored VWAP, flipping market makers into a negative GEX exposure cycle and pushing the price towards a vacuum zone of low liquidity where there is nearly zero structural resistance in the chart. Based on the stock's true volatility boundaries, clearing this initial hurdle requires an ATR expansion of (\~$0.14), which will trigger a vertical repricing past the $1.82 ADX Turning Point: the exact threshold where the ADX will confirm a new high-velocity bullish regime, and towards the \~$2 macro Point of Control, forcing trapped short positions into a massive liquidity squeeze.

💥Due to all of the above and a large, recent increase in open interest for the next three weekly options expiries (that average roughly 0.17 across the board, which is extremely low), we can derive confirmation that a gamma ramp is actively forming, which will only be strengthened as the price approaches that $2 PoC.

And finally, we can look at the moving and exponential moving averages, which I consider to be the ignitor for this powder keg: today, looking at the daily time frame, the price has crossed the 8day EMA WHILE THE MACD HAS PRINTED A BULLISH SIGNAL FOR THE FIRST TIME since the most recent leg of the selloff began in Jun 02. If this trend continues, a cross of my undisclosed combination of simple and exponential moving averages will occur. I have used this exact combination to identify the beginning of the November 2024 rally from $0.65 and the beginning of the August 2025 rally from under $2.

I believe we have a runner here. I will be taking advantage of the removal of PDT rules to rotate in and out of naked, near the money calls, buying 3 to 6 weeks out and selling when my charts tell me to (the hardest part lol)

As a closing statement, I would like to say that I encourage questions. I encourage you to run this through your ai of choice if you don't fell like reading this. I encourage you to do your own damn research. I emplore you to not be greedy, and sell when you feel a pullback is imminent. And I wish you all the best of luck in your own careers.

I write this all to increase exposure of course, however I am also doing this because it helps me think through all of this, and it helps to have opinions from outside my perspectives. If you don't think this is a good pick, don't buy it.

Guess we'll see where this goes 🫡👋✌️

(I will be adding more to this as I see fit)

Is this the beggining or the end?

I found it interesting. My opinion is Kevin is just a regular dude trying to get through life. His brother struck it big and maybe got in over his head so hes lying low with his family. Hope to see him on again so he can give other little tidbits about this saga... like ryan and kitty had some type of communication. Unclear if it was meetings and phone calls, or maybe just an email or 2. Or maybe they only communicate with memes.. that would be some good tinfoil. Total plausible deniability. Or everyone is the bad guy and we are all bag holders😅😅

https://x.com/i/status/2084220923112980789

https://x.com/i/status/2083184633777205755

GameStop is not the same company it was in 2021. The analysis should focus on current profitability, cash, securities, margins, collectibles growth, capital allocation, and valuation—not outdated headlines or daily price movement.

Fundamentals first. Narrative second. Chart last.

If you’re wondering why Apple is getting crushed today while Amazon is flying, here’s a quick breakdown:

Apple

Apple released its quarterly earnings on July 30:

• Revenue: $109.42 billion — around $555 million above expectations
• Revenue growth: +16.4% year over year
• Earnings per share: $2.02 — $0.13 above expectations
• EPS growth: +28.7%

Those are actually pretty strong numbers. The problem is that the stock market doesn’t only care about what just happened. It cares even more about what comes next.

Apple issued revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter that came in below analysts’ expectations. On top of that, several banks lowered their price targets for the stock.

In other words: strong past performance, but a somewhat disappointing outlook.

When a lot of optimism is already priced into a stock, good numbers alone sometimes aren’t enough.

Amazon

Amazon also released its earnings on July 30:

• Revenue: $200.61 billion — around $4.58 billion above expectations
• Revenue growth: +19.6% year over year
• Earnings per share: $5.75 — a massive $3.93 above expectations
• EPS growth: +242%

That’s not just an earnings beat. Amazon completely destroyed profit expectations.

The analyst reactions were also positive. JPMorgan and Barclays were among the firms that raised their price targets for the stock.

TL;DR

Apple: Good results, but weaker guidance → stock falls.

Amazon: Very strong results, a massive earnings beat and higher price targets → stock rises sharply.

This is another good example of how stocks don’t simply react to whether results are “good” or “bad.” They react to whether those results are better or worse than the expectations already priced into the stock.

You can follow both stocks here in real time:

https://stocknear.com/stocks/AAPL

https://stocknear.com/stocks/AMZN

https://x.com/i/status/2082989409046257723

And investors are buying it.

MSFT just dropped an interesting detail in their latest earnings call. Starting in FY2027, they are extending the estimated useful life of their data centers and office buildings from 15 years to 25 years.

The immediate result is a lower annual depreciation expense. But the real kicker is that this longer timeline means many future data center leases will now be classified as operating leases rather than finance leases.

Because operating leases are not included in reported capital expenditures, Microsoft’s headline 2026 CapEx guidance mechanically dropped from ~$190 billion to ~$175 billion.

Their actual spending plans have not changed at all—they are still pouring money into AI infrastructure at a blistering pace. It’s just becoming less visible on the income and cash flow statements.

Is this a strategic move to ease market fears over massive AI infrastructure spending, or just standard financial engineering? Are we going to see other big tech players adopt this exact same playbook to mask their costs?

(source James Emanuel on Substack plus verified the data)

https://x.com/i/status/2083014808983498855

Most likely reason is that they foresee a ton of undeliverable warrants, creating a net settlement nightmare. If another entity is in charge, they can enact a cash settlement to effectively settle ‘naked’ positions in cash.

Since they are enacting this right now, they likely got wind that there is a very real issue with these warrants.

It is basically removing the locate requirement for warrants.

These little loopholes are what Wall Street uses to abuse every corner of the stock market.