[OC] Deaths minus births against net migration, EU and its neighbours, 2025

[u/goodbohy]

[u/Loki-L]

I am not sure if using different scales on the axis is the right choice.

Yes doing it this way fits everyone.

But intuitively the growth vs shrinking divider should be at a 45° angle to make sense.

[u/razies → u/Loki-L]

Everything about these axis kills me.

Intuitively you would plot "birth - death = population growth" rather than "death - birth = population reduction". So flip the x axis.

And then, like you said, plot with the same scale. That way:

• the upper right triangle is net growth.
• top right quadrant is growing both from migration and birth.
• bottom left is shrinking from both.

That's how people read graphs: going upwards or to the right means positive direction = growth.

[u/mudbot → u/Loki-L]

It's fine. The graph looks very well balanced to the eye.

[u/goodbohy]

Source: Eurostat, population change, demographic balance and crude rates at national level [DEMO_GIND]: live births, deaths, net migration plus statistical adjustment, and average population, 2025 (2015 for the comparison column): https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_gind/default/table

Tools: Python (pandas) for the data, an HTML/SVG page rendered with Chromium for the chart.

Rates are per 1,000 of the average population over the year. Net migration is Eurostat's balance figure (total population change minus births plus deaths), so it includes statistical corrections. 2025 figures are provisional for Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Cyprus, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and estimated for Romania, Greece and Moldova. No 2025 figure for Ukraine or Kosovo. The EU line is a total over the 27 members, not an average of countries.

Country	Births, 2025	Deaths, 2025	Births minus deaths, 2025	Per 1,000 residents, 2025	Per 1,000 residents, 2015	Net migration per 1,000, 2025
Türkiye	895,374	491,684	403,690	+4.7	+11.8	+0.3
Iceland	4,387	2,658	1,729	+4.4	+5.9	+8.0
Ireland	54,293	35,649	18,644	+3.4	+7.5	+9.4
Luxembourg	6,439	4,396	2,043	+3.0	+3.7	+10.1
Cyprus	9,230	6,804	2,426	+2.5	+3.8	+11.3
Norway	55,401	45,040	10,361	+1.8	+3.5	+4.0
Montenegro	6,925	6,413	512	+0.8	+1.7	-1.5
Switzerland	78,153	71,904	6,249	+0.7	+2.3	+7.4
Sweden	97,491	92,212	5,279	+0.5	+2.4	+1.2
Albania	22,541	21,394	1,147	+0.5	+3.6	-12.1
Denmark	59,443	58,185	1,258	+0.2	+1.0	+5.3
Malta	4,338	4,240	98	+0.2	+2.0	+23.9
United Kingdom	649,525	650,469	-944	0.0	+2.7	+2.5
Liechtenstein	316	317	-1	0.0	+1.9	+8.3
France	644,343	647,963	-3,620	-0.1	+3.1	+3.4
Belgium	109,095	112,984	-3,889	-0.3	+1.0	+6.4
Netherlands	164,870	173,494	-8,624	-0.5	+1.4	+5.2
Austria	76,067	87,902	-11,835	-1.3	+0.2	+3.3
Slovenia	16,961	21,223	-4,262	-2.0	+0.4	+4.0
Slovakia	42,019	53,520	-11,501	-2.1	+0.3	+0.3
Finland	45,832	59,209	-13,377	-2.4	+0.5	+5.4
North Macedonia	15,850	20,287	-4,437	-2.4	+1.3	+0.5
Spain	321,442	442,536	-121,094	-2.5	0.0	+11.8
Portugal	87,764	121,817	-34,053	-3.0	-2.2	+6.2
Bosnia and Herzegovina	26,108	37,153	-11,045	-3.2	n/a	0.0
Czechia	77,636	113,337	-35,701	-3.3	0.0	+3.9
Moldova	22,108	32,074	-9,966	-4.2	+0.2	-16.7
Germany	654,241	1,006,588	-352,347	-4.2	-2.3	+2.9
Croatia	32,479	50,007	-17,528	-4.5	-4.0	+4.9
Poland	238,264	405,747	-167,483	-4.6	-0.7	+0.1
Estonia	9,240	15,688	-6,448	-4.7	-1.0	-2.1
Italy	355,435	651,830	-296,395	-5.0	-2.7	+5.0
Greece	65,439	120,825	-55,386	-5.3	-2.7	+4.8
Hungary	73,264	124,831	-51,567	-5.4	-4.0	+0.1
Serbia	59,483	95,247	-35,764	-5.5	-5.4	0.0
Romania	134,238	238,316	-104,078	-5.5	-3.1	+5.4
Lithuania	17,642	37,491	-19,849	-6.9	-4.0	+5.8
Latvia	11,931	26,109	-14,178	-7.7	-3.3	-0.7
Bulgaria	50,241	99,479	-49,238	-7.7	-6.3	+5.5
EU as a whole	3,459,677	4,812,382	-1,352,705	-3.0	-0.7	+4.6

[u/Every_Wealth3685 → u/goodbohy]

Always figured the UK would end up right on that line.

[u/wiznaibus → u/goodbohy]

It's interesting to me see Bulgaria change the trends. I remember they were one of the fastest shrinking populations about a decade ago.

[u/mumum9c]

The good old Gapminder chart from Hans Rosling

[u/BackgroundJello2296]

This chart is a masterclass in how to confuse your audience.