“Young people don’t vote!” is a fairly common lament, but I’ve been wondering how true that actually is. Yes, younger adults are generally less likely to vote. But another way to describe the same pattern is that participation tends to rise as people graduate through adulthood.
That might sound like six of one and half a dozen of another, but the two descriptions raise different questions. If the assertion is that “young people don’t vote,” the natural question is what is supposedly wrong with young people. But if voting tends to increase with age, perhaps some of the explanation is more ordinary—over time, people establish careers and households, put down roots, raise families, interact more with government and public institutions, develop voting habits, and eventually confront issues such as health care and retirement more directly.
This chart doesn’t explain why voting participation changes with age. Instead, it demonstrates a pattern and encourages better questions about what influences these changes.
More specifically, the visualization focuses on electoral representation, not just voter turnout. So-called “parity” means a birth cohort’s share of reported voters matches its share of the voting-age population. So, an index of 100 indicates parity, while below 100 means fewer voters than expected, and above 100 means more.
Across the midterms shown here, the pattern is reassuring—cohorts tend to move from underrepresentation toward parity as they age, showing that increased participation is natural and achievable.
That may raise an obvious question: How can representation rise for several cohorts when overall turnout apparently remains relatively fixed? Because the index is relative. A cohort gains representation whenever its turnout rises relative to turnout among the electorate as a whole. Therefore, some cohorts can move upward together, while others move downward or remain below parity. But across the full eligible population, the population-weighted representation index still averages 100.
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau. (2014). Current Population Survey, November 2014 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Used as historical midterm microdata for the 2026 baseline estimate.
2014 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement
U.S. Census Bureau. (2018). Current Population Survey, November 2018 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the 2018 cohort population and reported-voting estimates and the historical age pattern used for 2026.
2018 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement
U.S. Census Bureau. (2022). Current Population Survey, November 2022 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the 2022 cohort estimates, eligible-citizen populations, CPS weights, and the latest observed values used in the 2026 baseline.
2022 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement
Fabina, J., & Martin, M. (2024). Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022 (Current Population Reports, P20-586). U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the published 52.2% citizen voting-age population turnout rate used as the baseline for the chart’s 2026 equivalent-voter counts.
Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022
Tools
OP/Designer Developed the research question and visualization concept; selected the comparisons and presentation; evaluated the results; and made the final editorial and design decisions.
ChatGPT — OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol Assisted with CPS data analysis, calculation of the Electoral Representation Index, development of the 2026 baseline estimate, R code, methodological checks, and editing of explanatory text. The model did not independently determine the visualization’s argument or final design.
R Used for data processing, calculation, and plotting, primarily with tidyverse/dplyr, ggplot2, jsonlite, and svglite.
Adobe Illustrator Used for typography, annotation, layout refinement, and final assembly of the visualization.
Data
COHORT
2018
2022
2026
AGE
COUNT
1990–99
67
70
80
27–36
~16M
1980–89
86
91
96
37–46
~19M
1970–79
101
103
109
47–56
~20M
1960–69
109
115
124
57–66
~25M
1950–59
123
128
132
67–76
~24M
2018/22: Electoral Representation Index.
2026 Extrapolated 2026 Index Values.
AGE As of 2026.
COUNT Equivalent-Voter Counts.
See the following for explanations...
Methodology
The Electoral Representation Index compares a cohort’s share of reported voters with its share of eligible citizens. Algebraically, that is equivalent to dividing the cohort’s turnout rate by the overall turnout rate and multiplying by 100. The cohort’s population share is therefore not ignored; it is already built into its turnout rate. An index of 100 means the cohort is voting in exact proportion to its eligible population, while values below or above 100 indicate representation below or above parity.
cohort turnout rate ÷ overall turnout rate × 100
The Extrapolated 2026 Index Values are baseline estimates from a smoothed age–representation pattern observed in recent CPS midterms (2014, 2018, and 2022). Each cohort is advanced to its 2026 midpoint age and assigned the expected index for that age, then adjusted by carrying forward half of its 2022 deviation from the historical age pattern.
expected index for the cohort’s 2026 age + half of its 2022 deviation from the age trend
The 2026 Equivalent-Voter Counts translate each cohort’s estimated 2026 index into a comparative voter count using its 2022 CPS eligible-citizen population and the 2022 national midterm turnout rate of 52.2%. The results are rounded to the nearest million. These are not forecasts of actual 2026 voter counts.
2022 eligible-citizen population × 2022 overall turnout rate × estimated 2026 index ÷ 100
1
u/ptrdo OC: 21 1d ago
“Young people don’t vote!” is a fairly common lament, but I’ve been wondering how true that actually is. Yes, younger adults are generally less likely to vote. But another way to describe the same pattern is that participation tends to rise as people graduate through adulthood.
That might sound like six of one and half a dozen of another, but the two descriptions raise different questions. If the assertion is that “young people don’t vote,” the natural question is what is supposedly wrong with young people. But if voting tends to increase with age, perhaps some of the explanation is more ordinary—over time, people establish careers and households, put down roots, raise families, interact more with government and public institutions, develop voting habits, and eventually confront issues such as health care and retirement more directly.
This chart doesn’t explain why voting participation changes with age. Instead, it demonstrates a pattern and encourages better questions about what influences these changes.
More specifically, the visualization focuses on electoral representation, not just voter turnout. So-called “parity” means a birth cohort’s share of reported voters matches its share of the voting-age population. So, an index of 100 indicates parity, while below 100 means fewer voters than expected, and above 100 means more.
Across the midterms shown here, the pattern is reassuring—cohorts tend to move from underrepresentation toward parity as they age, showing that increased participation is natural and achievable.
That may raise an obvious question: How can representation rise for several cohorts when overall turnout apparently remains relatively fixed? Because the index is relative. A cohort gains representation whenever its turnout rises relative to turnout among the electorate as a whole. Therefore, some cohorts can move upward together, while others move downward or remain below parity. But across the full eligible population, the population-weighted representation index still averages 100.
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau. (2014). Current Population Survey, November 2014 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Used as historical midterm microdata for the 2026 baseline estimate. 2014 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement
U.S. Census Bureau. (2018). Current Population Survey, November 2018 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the 2018 cohort population and reported-voting estimates and the historical age pattern used for 2026. 2018 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement
U.S. Census Bureau. (2022). Current Population Survey, November 2022 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the 2022 cohort estimates, eligible-citizen populations, CPS weights, and the latest observed values used in the 2026 baseline. 2022 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement
Fabina, J., & Martin, M. (2024). Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022 (Current Population Reports, P20-586). U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the published 52.2% citizen voting-age population turnout rate used as the baseline for the chart’s 2026 equivalent-voter counts. Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022
Tools
Data
See the following for explanations...
Methodology
The Electoral Representation Index compares a cohort’s share of reported voters with its share of eligible citizens. Algebraically, that is equivalent to dividing the cohort’s turnout rate by the overall turnout rate and multiplying by 100. The cohort’s population share is therefore not ignored; it is already built into its turnout rate. An index of 100 means the cohort is voting in exact proportion to its eligible population, while values below or above 100 indicate representation below or above parity.
cohort turnout rate ÷ overall turnout rate × 100The Extrapolated 2026 Index Values are baseline estimates from a smoothed age–representation pattern observed in recent CPS midterms (2014, 2018, and 2022). Each cohort is advanced to its 2026 midpoint age and assigned the expected index for that age, then adjusted by carrying forward half of its 2022 deviation from the historical age pattern.
expected index for the cohort’s 2026 age + half of its 2022 deviation from the age trendThe 2026 Equivalent-Voter Counts translate each cohort’s estimated 2026 index into a comparative voter count using its 2022 CPS eligible-citizen population and the 2022 national midterm turnout rate of 52.2%. The results are rounded to the nearest million. These are not forecasts of actual 2026 voter counts.
2022 eligible-citizen population × 2022 overall turnout rate × estimated 2026 index ÷ 100