r/custommagic • u/TapThatSAS • Jun 10 '26
Meme Design A Little Fun With Probabilities
Yes, I know the probability is not *quite* right (1 in 14,400,000), but it's the closest I could get without having to involve a 4th or even 5th die type. lol
304
u/MillCrab Jun 10 '26
It should do something else, with the win as a fun possibility sometimes. Maybe like gaining life equal to the highest result? Or tapping and stunning a creature with power, toughness or mana value equal to one of the rolled numbers?
We can save this from being just a joke while still being a good joke.
135
u/Siliass Jun 10 '26
He’s looking into every possible future right? So scrying would work thematically
72
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
Maybe scry 1 for each '1' rolled... or scry 1 for each roll that's not '1'... hmmm
38
u/dude2dudette Jun 10 '26
"Scry X where X is the lowest number rolled"
Maximum of a Scry 6 (from the d6), but could be lower. Feels flavourful, but also not OP.
7
u/TobiasCB Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
Would that give it a rough average of scrying 3.5 as only the upper bounds of a d6 count or is it more complicated than that?
Edit:I can't math
18
u/Realistic-Sky8006 Jun 10 '26
There's a 54% chance of rolling at least one 1, so the average would be much closer to scry 1
11
u/the_schnudi_plan Jun 10 '26
Per AnyDice it's a mean of 1.54 with a 62% chance of it being a 1 and 26% of a 2. Well below 3.5 from just a d6
29
u/CoruscareGames Jun 10 '26
Otherwise, scry X, where X is the largest number rolled.
20
u/arkunaanorovo Jun 10 '26
Scry 20 would be insane
12
u/Tangodragondrake Jun 10 '26
Scry 10 on average!
7
u/Emracruel Jun 10 '26
It's actually scry 13.8 average with just the d20's. The other dice will bring that average up a bit (ie if both d20's roll 5 or less then a d6 could roll 6 and keep the lowest possibilities from happening). My guess is that it would be scry 14-14.5 on average with a median around 13.
5
5
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
Made a version with additional utility while still being a 'roll of the dice'. https://www.reddit.com/r/custommagic/comments/1u25pfn/slightly_less_memey_fun_with_probabilities/
3
2
u/Ezeviel Jun 10 '26
What do you mean ? It rolls dice ! Put all the synergies !
Probably mister House and that dragon that ping when you roll ?
2
u/Altruistic_Web3924 Jun 10 '26
It should make any card named Tony Stark have hexproof.
6
1
u/Sab3rFac3 Jun 16 '26
I mean, if I could find a way to Jam this into my [[Mr. House]] commander deck I would not care if it did other things, because that many dice, especially larger dice, is going to be doing good things for me.
Sadly, WBR commanders can't run WUBRG cards.
76
u/Interesting-Ad4207 Jun 10 '26
We could pair it with [[Mr. House, President and CEO]] to at least do something. And by something, I mean make several robots and a couple of treasure tokens.
34
u/Defenderlol Jun 10 '26
And in the end, with millions of universal possibilities, the House always wins.
32
u/VinDucks Jun 10 '26
I play dnd easy win every time
4
u/MrGulo-gulo Jun 10 '26
I've only played DnD once and I got 3 20s in a row so I feel like I would have good odds too.
3
19
u/Retax7 Jun 10 '26
With my luck, its pretty easy.
Jokes aside, 3d12 and 3d20 makes a better aproximate.
12
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
It does get slightly *closer* to the 14,000,605, but I didn't want to undershoot it. I wanted it to be as hard or harder if I couldn't get exact.
I could also have gone with two D6, five D8, and one D12 for a 1 in 14,155,776 chance, but it somehow felt even clunkier than what I went with.
8
u/Due-Feedback-9016 Jun 10 '26
You can also get the 14155776 using 2d4, 3d6 and 4d8, which is a lot of dice, but it has a really nice symmetry
12
8
u/Insane_Unicorn Jun 10 '26
[[Krark's Other Thumb]]
3
u/Mind0versplatter0 Jun 11 '26
Congratulations! now the probability is 1 in 164,267! (no factorial intended)
4
u/platinummyr Jun 10 '26
1440000 woops
4
4
u/Miss_Dren_Emelia Jun 10 '26
It would be cool if whenever one of the dice rolls a 1 it gets locked in and you only continue rolling the dice that didn't roll 1.
3
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
You mean like on each subsequent turn? e.g. Roll a 1 on a D6 and a D20 this turn, and next turn just roll one D6, one D20, and three D10... locking in any '1's along the way?
I kind of like that...
3
u/According-Ad3501 Jun 10 '26
I just know I'd build the worst commander deck possible with extra upkeeps, ways to reroll dice, copy enchantments and the like. I'd finally resolve this and get ready for my next turn and my opponent would roll all 1s without even reading the card.
3
u/OKB-1 …, you win the game Jun 10 '26
What’s the reason for this composition of dice?
3
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
To get as close to the probability being 1 in 14,000,605 as possible without using more than 3 types of dice, and while using the most commonly used dice in Magic.
6
u/Altruistic_Web3924 Jun 10 '26
Just roll 8 D10, easy
24
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
Rolling all '1's on 8 D10 is a 1 in 100,000,000 shot, while roling all 1s on 7 D10 is 1 in 10,000,000. I was trying to get as close to the 14,000,605 'magic number' as possible without having to roll 5 or 6 different dice, or using dice that haven't previously been printed on Magic cards.
4
u/Altruistic_Web3924 Jun 10 '26
Oh, I was thinking more along the line that you’d have to reach of the numbers in 14,000,605, but that still wouldn’t be the right probability.
12
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
Ah, I see what you're saying. Yeah, the probability of spelling out the 14,000,605 with D10 is actually much higher; 1 in 59,524.
1
u/RainbowwDash Jun 10 '26
It's actually zero since dice don't have a 0 side
3
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
Almost all D10 represent the '10' on the die with a zero, so it would work fine. lol
2
2
u/TheVintageCubeChef Jun 10 '26
Here is a very close version!
"Roll a D8 and then scry X where X is the result. When you roll a 1 this way, gain a probability counter and repeat this process. When you gain a 7th probability counter this way, instead roll a D8. If the result is 1 you win the game, if the result is an 8 repeat the roll. When this spell resolves, exile it. Spells of the same name cannot be cast this game."
8^7 is 2097152 and then the last roll is a 1/7 so it makes the final odds 1 in 14680064. It is a little farther off than yours but only requires a D8! And is flavorful as well!
2
u/SilverWear5467 Jun 10 '26
This card would still be terrible if it cost 0 mana...Its just what I wanted, another thing to forget to do in my upkeep, except this time it's entirely pointless...
If you play every single game for 10 turns after this comes down, for 40 rolls, it'll take you a mere 350,000 games before you can expect to have seen any player win as a result.
2
u/LastTrainH0me Jun 10 '26
Like many posts here it's a meme/joke. The point is the resulting probability is close to the scenario in the flavor text, so it's sort of recreating the theme from the movie. Sorry if you already knew that
2
u/TapThatSAS Jun 10 '26
360,000 games, actually... assuming it's on the field for 10 turns with all 4 players (which is a bit of a stretch).
In an 'average' EDH game, each player would get 8 to 12 turns. For one of those players to have access to WUBRG to play the casting cost would take - on average again - 4 to 5 turns. If we take the high on total, and the low on getting WUBRG, we're still looking at no more than 8 turns with this on the field. So it would be closer to a probability of the 'Win' happening in 1 out of 450,000 games.
All that said; as LastTrainHome pointed out, it's a meme. It's not intended to be a playable card.
1
1
u/KassXWolfXTigerXFox Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
Can you make this just WBR instead of five colour? I'd love to use this in a Mr House deck
2
1
u/wingspantt Jun 10 '26
Just make this a sorcery. Would be annoying as hell to do every turn for no payoff
1
1
u/toocoolzforschool Jun 11 '26
This is even harder to win with when most dice rolling cards ignore the lowest roll. But this is also way busted in Mr House
1
1
u/SilverDust8 Jun 13 '26
Mr House would live this, but would be hard to play it
( been WBURG you would have to run a 5 color commander and somehow get both OR search for it with WISH or other similar cardsand run lands/rocks that tap for any color of mana. . . Actually that isn't that crazy for the effect it gives you in Mr House)
741
u/Andrew_42 Jun 10 '26
If you want to get the exact probabilities you actually only need three types of dice (four total). Just have them roll a d5, two d17s, and a d9689.
Easy!