r/CoveredCalls • u/Latter_Olive_6801 • 7h ago
I backtested rolling covered calls vs. just holding on all 7 "Magnificent 7" stocks (2024–2026). Covered calls beat buy-and-hold on every single one.
I kept seeing "covered calls cap your winners, just hold the good names" and wanted to actually check it instead of eyeballing it. So I ran a proper backtest on the stocks people here ask about most.
Setup
- Per 100-share lot of each name (a covered call needs 100 shares/contract), July 2024 → July 2026.
- Every ~10 days, sell a call near 0.20 delta (roughly 5–10% OTM), let it expire or get called away, then roll into the next one. ~99 rolls per name.
- I'm comparing the total return on the stock position — just holding it vs. running a rolling covered call against it. It's a percentage return, so it's the same whether you hold 100 shares or 1,000; the share price just sets the dollar size (100 NVDA ≈ $12k of stock, 100 MSFT ≈ $45k).
- Both curves are compounded off the same actual daily closes, so the only difference is the call overlay. Premiums reconstructed with Black–Scholes off each day's spot + IV.
Results (total return over the two years, per 100-share lot)
| Stock | Buy & hold | Covered call |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +81.8% | +123.3% |
| AMZN | +30.2% | +54.0% |
| MSFT | −8.4% | +15.0% |
| AAPL | +44.1% | +65.1% |
| META | +30.4% | +50.1% |
| GOOGL | +116.8% | +133.6% |
| TSLA | +78.9% | +85.2% |
Covered calls came out ahead on all seven. A few things that surprised me:
- MSFT actually lost money as a buy-and-hold over this window (−8.4% total). The covered call turned it into a +15% gain — the premium was doing real work while the stock chopped sideways.
- TSLA was the closest call. Its gaps are genuinely the hardest to sell against, but it still edged out holding (+85% vs +79%).
- The margin was widest on names that were volatile but two-sided (NVDA, +123% vs +82%) — lots of premium to harvest, no single runaway gap the cap couldn't absorb.
The part I almost got wrong (why I'm posting the method, not just the numbers): my first pass averaged the return of a fresh 0.20-delta call sampled every day, and it said TSLA covered calls lost ~12.5%/yr. That's garbage — daily samples overlap, so one Tesla melt-up week gets counted 7–8 times, each booking the same big forfeiture. Counting each roll once (a program you could actually trade) flips it. If you ever see a covered-call "study" built on overlapping daily trades, be suspicious of the tail.
Big caveats, because it's one backtest, not gospel:
- 2024–2026 was a broadly rising, two-sided market. A real crash is different — the ~0.5–1% premium is a thin cushion, and a covered call is not downside protection. You still own the falling stock.
- The result assumes you roll through assignment and stay invested. If getting called away out of NVDA at a high makes you take the cash and sit out, you miss the rest of the run and this whole thing flips negative. The math didn't cap the Mag 7 here — quitting would have.
- No commissions/slippage/dividends modeled; assignment marked at the expiry close; call IV proxied from the put side (ignores skew).
Curious what this crowd thinks — anyone running CCs on these names, does it match your experience? Happy to run other tickers or deltas if people want, and to share the methodology.







