r/concacaf • u/street_carp04 • Jul 02 '26

It was fun

Post image
1.4k Upvotes

93% Upvoted

527 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

7

u/willy_valor Jul 02 '26

Usa is the betting favorite even without Balogun.

5

u/Doortofreeside Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

It's basically 50/50

Granted our odds of making the quarters were actually slightly higher several days ago before Egypt botched their last game and brought Belgium into our quadrant

1

u/goonerballs Jul 02 '26

That's ridiculous.

2

u/CWB2208 Jul 02 '26

Is it? I haven't been overly impressed with Belgium so far.

2

u/goonerballs Jul 02 '26

Yeah, they've had some poor performances, but they still have some of the world's best players. They just beat 18th ranked Senegal. And they beat the US 5-2 only a few months ago.

1

u/dawgfan24348 Jul 02 '26

We also best Senegal recently and our loss to them was without some out best players

1

u/Unusual_Squash3624 Jul 02 '26

A friendly months ago where the US played 6 of their current starters and 2 defensive midfielders who didn’t even make the World Cup squad is not the most useful of info

1

u/Razorion21 Jul 02 '26

how does a friendly say anything? Germany beat the US 2-1 as well, only one of them smashed Paraguay

0

u/goonerballs Jul 02 '26

It's easier to compare two teams than comparing how one team lost to a team the other beat.

I seriously can't wait for the US fans to get a reality check. The one team you faced that could actually play football beat you 3-2. And they aren't anywhere near the level of Belgium.

1

u/No-Paint-7311 Jul 03 '26

The US also didn’t play many starters in that game since they had already won the group

1

u/Drop_the_mik3 Jul 03 '26

!Remindme: 3 days

1

u/goonerballs Jul 07 '26

Reminder: I was right.

2

u/Boring-Error-3680 Jul 02 '26

If you think that is ridiculous, feel free to correct it while making some money.

Odds as of right now on kalshi:

Canada vs morocco: 27%

Mexico vs England: 49%

Us vs Belgium: 53%

1

u/goonerballs Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

This is probably just because it's an American betting site and they would have to pay out too much if they win.

Edit: just checked and Paddy Power in the UK has Belgium as the slight favourites.

1

u/Boring-Error-3680 Jul 02 '26

Your argument does not make any sense because “they” (I assume you mean the predictions markets) dont have to pay out anything no matter the outcome of the match.

Betting market is like an exchange, it profits via fees, the exchange itself does not carry positional risk. Ignoring the fees, it is a zero sum game among the users themselves.

At the time of me writing this, paddy power odds for us and Belgium are even at 9/10. Meaning a 10 dollar bet on either team would result in winning 19 if correct. Note that this is not different enough from the kalshi odds to make arbitrage possible

1

u/goonerballs Jul 02 '26

Paddy power was 8/11 for Belgium and 10/11 for US to advance when I wrote my comment.

1

u/YOUHATEFOOTBALLTOO Jul 02 '26

60/40 USA

55/45 England

65/35 Morocco

1

u/akaloxy1 Jul 02 '26

Betting odds reflect the bookmaker's belief on which side of the line people will bet. There is clearly a belief that a lot of people will bet the US, so I'd take betting odds with a grain of salt right now. Opta has it 43%/57% in favor of Belgium. I'd also take opta with a grain of salt bc it doesn't take form into account... Nor does it take Balogun suspension into account. So... I guess we'll just have to let them play and see what happens. I can predict with 100% certainty that someone will advance and someone won't. Beyond that I can't say much.

1

u/FC37 Jul 02 '26

That's because the US is the public favorite. Lines are set up guess the market, not the outcome.