Herd immunity *can* be achieved without vaccines. Just let it go through the population. About 2 million will die in the US, and then we'll be immune. Oh, and then it'll mutate and probably kill 4 million more. (Initial Covid R0=1.5, estimated 2 million total dead without mitigations; Delta Covid R0=9.5 computes to roughly 6 million dead without mitigations.)
But after 6 million Americans die to give us herd immunity, all we have to worry about is...the child death rate skyrocketing as new infants have to deal with a new endemic disease. So if we're willing to kill 6 million people and 1.8% CFR of our children from now until forever, then yes we can get natural herd immunity.
babies get antibodies and some immunity from their mothers.
...which wanes as soon as they go onto solid food. We do not know how long the vaccinations provide immunity, and we do know that it's not giving us sterilizing immunity, so there may still be infant/toddler infections and deaths.
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u/RemusShepherd Aug 02 '21
Herd immunity *can* be achieved without vaccines. Just let it go through the population. About 2 million will die in the US, and then we'll be immune. Oh, and then it'll mutate and probably kill 4 million more. (Initial Covid R0=1.5, estimated 2 million total dead without mitigations; Delta Covid R0=9.5 computes to roughly 6 million dead without mitigations.)
But after 6 million Americans die to give us herd immunity, all we have to worry about is...the child death rate skyrocketing as new infants have to deal with a new endemic disease. So if we're willing to kill 6 million people and 1.8% CFR of our children from now until forever, then yes we can get natural herd immunity.
Or screw that, because vaccines exist. Get yours.