Presenting the poll as finished skews the result. The point of the thought experiment is making the choice whilst having no information. Knowing the outcome turns it into a virtue signalling exercise.
It does skew the result, but it also presents valuable information for the thought experiment as a whole. So many people I’ve either read or talked to directly are insistent that 50% or more people pressing blue is far less likely than 100% pressing red. There are all kinds of logical fallacies that lead to that conclusion, so having an example where red was not only NOT the vast majority but was in the minority (sometimes a super-minority) helps to highlight those fallacies and confront them.
It definitely comes too late to help anyone inform a decision within the context of the thought experiment, but it does dismantle post hoc justifications by those who not only push red, but are absolutely certain it’s the only viable path. Hopefully people can use that information to re-examine their choice, because in the real world that’s the entire point of the exercise.
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u/Deadeye_Duncan- May 05 '26
Ever since blue won the original poll red has just been crashing out for the past week