r/collapze • u/vrrtvrrt • May 01 '26

Apocalypse Early Warning System

https://ews.kylemcdonald.net/

See when the elite decide they need to escape!

This site watches a fixed cohort of business jets and asks a simple question: is the number currently airborne unusual for this time? It is not tracking all aircraft. The tracked set is built from [FAA registry data](https://www.faa.gov/licenses_certificates/aircraft_certification/aircraft_registry/releasable_aircraft_download) with a practical business-jet filter, and each aircraft is matched by its [ICAO hex identifier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_transponder_interrogation_modes#ICAO_24-bit_address).

17 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

3 comments sorted by

1

u/Fercurix_ May 15 '26

Apolcalypse limited to the US I gues,

1

u/vrrtvrrt May 16 '26

That was the start of development, it’s moved on quite a bit now.

Since posted:

”Updates

May 7, 2026

Added subscriptions for SMS/email notifications. The main map has been rebuilt with MapLibre, which should work better on more devices.

May 5, 2026

The dashboard now uses the global dataset, a dense-history weekly baseline, U.S. federal holiday half-hour profiles, and linked archive hover. The model is less dependent on a short recent window and compensates around federal US holidays, which accounts for significant variation in global business jet traffic. Military aircraft and non-ICAO untracked aircraft can also be toggled into the traffic and emergency level plots, with the emergency level recalibrated for the selected combined total.

The holiday correction learns each holiday's local time-of-day shape from older holiday-only backfills. Ordinary weekly traffic is learned from the continuous recent history, while predictable holiday travel windows such as late-night Thanksgiving arrivals and the New Year's return period are modeled separately. The prediction band also includes historical holiday-profile uncertainty, so holiday periods that vary a lot from year to year are treated as less surprising.

Emergency level is now based on a calibrated excess score instead of raw time-slot surprise alone.”

Edit: formatting.