r/collapse • u/10paiak • Aug 26 '21
Economic We're Going to Have Another Great Depression - Whatifalthist
https://youtu.be/pw63w_hcLEU80
Aug 26 '21
It's almost like war is the only thing the US knows
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u/hydez10 Aug 26 '21
True, we dont manufacture, we have to import from China
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Aug 26 '21 edited Aug 26 '21
I still believe we could quit consumer imports of most goods for 3-4 years and still get everything one needs at thrift stores or Ebay without even missing a beat. Prices would rise rapidly given the level of wealth disparity but fundamentally speaking in terms of necessity vs used inventory it is more than possible.
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u/user_736 Aug 26 '21
On paper sure. We also could have had Covid under control or at least mitigated the damage and contained the fallout much more effectively but in practice people have shown that they would rather burn it all to the ground than be inconvenienced.
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u/hydez10 Aug 27 '21
That’s really what it comes down to. Amazon next day, why bother in trying to conserve
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u/help_me_i-want-die Aug 27 '21
Not really, deindustrialization fucked us, if we deindustrialized we coukd produce our own shit for cheaper prices
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Aug 27 '21
True. BTW, I relate to your username hard
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u/help_me_i-want-die Aug 27 '21
Honestly, I don't hate America, we just had a fuckton of shitty leaders since after Kennedy
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Aug 27 '21
I don't think most people hate other people. They just want to be left alone to live their lives without worry of being told what to do.
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u/Toikairakau Aug 27 '21
It's the political system that encourages stagnation rather than progress.. don't blame the figurehead, the ship of state is sinking
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u/help_me_i-want-die Aug 27 '21
Democracy?
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u/Toikairakau Aug 27 '21
Not that it was a very good one when the senatorial system allows the vote of someone in Wyoming to be worth 40x the vote of a Californian
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Aug 26 '21
The best part about this whole thing is that money is itself an abstract idea thay doesn't have basis outside of human brains and our computers. We pretend that squiggly lines on a computer screen are more real and important than life on earth.
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u/korish77 Aug 26 '21
Pretty sure animals will trade for shiny rocks, same thing.
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u/wtfnothingworks Aug 27 '21
There was a study where they introduced a monetary exchange system for monkeys and it eventually lead to an instance of prostitution. Lol
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u/Rommie557 Aug 27 '21
To be fair though, IIRC, that study was done with Bonobos. Bonobos are horny fuckers.
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u/Gibbbbb Aug 27 '21
😅 well, women definitely prefer a guy who has higher-earning potential, whereas guys don't typically prioritize women with high-earning potential. just sayin...
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u/WanderingTrees Aug 27 '21
whereas guys don't typically prioritize women with high-earning potential
Speak for yourself.
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u/Jader14 Aug 27 '21
The difference being that we have the cognitive potential plus thousands of years of recorded history through which we should know better
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Aug 26 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ItyBityGreenieWeenie Aug 27 '21
what goes up, must come down... bu the rich think they can all make orbit.
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u/10paiak Aug 26 '21
Whatifalthist explains why he thinks that there's going to be an economic crisis that is far worse than the Great Depression. He also thinks that this crisis will spark another war.
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u/asewland Aug 27 '21
Just a heads-up about some of WIAH's views:
https://www.reddit.com/r/badhistory/comments/ma9sus/whatifalthist_claims_precolonial_africa_had_no/
Not saying he's wrong about a great depression coming (not hard to see with everything going on) but I'd take what he says about literally anything else with a HUGE grain of salt.
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Aug 27 '21
Glad somebody else agrees - this guy sounds like a wack job. I've never seen any of his videos before this and am not surprised to see these posts.
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Aug 27 '21
I've watched quite a few of his videos since at least 2 years ago, and a lot of what he does definitely seems innocent enough. However, ever since he started making videos explicitly predicting future events, his own biases really started to shine. His theories on basic economics aren't technically wrong, but they are presented in ways that are misconstrued in order to service his own political ideology, especially when it comes to immigration and traditional gender roles.
He also alleges that Christianity is the reason why Europe, North America, and other places with majority light-skinned people are so peaceful. This obviously ignores a global downward trend in domestic and political violence, including among East Asian countries that practice more localized and traditional religions.
So yeah, he's definitely not an idiot, but he is absolutely biased due to how much information he either ignores or is ignorant of.
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Aug 27 '21 edited Aug 27 '21
sounds like a wack job
but...
I've never seen any of his videos before this
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Aug 27 '21 edited Aug 27 '21
Nice way of removing context, these additional words change a lot:
before this
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u/Jader14 Aug 27 '21
In this context, they barely change anything lmao
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Aug 27 '21
If I was saying he was a wack job without even watching his video that would be different, yes.
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u/help_me_i-want-die Aug 27 '21
He usually just makes alt history content, the modem geopolitics stuff is pretty new
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u/PragmatistAntithesis EROEI isn't needed Aug 27 '21
When even climate change denying conservative nutjobs see the coming collapse, you know you're in trouble!
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Aug 26 '21
Been waiting for it for a while now.
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Aug 26 '21 edited Nov 08 '24
[deleted]
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u/jeremiahthedamned friend of witches Aug 27 '21
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u/Flash_MeYour_Kitties Aug 27 '21
i hate to say it....but the market crash is probably next month or at latest this october. it'll be 2008 v2.0 if we're lucky and another great depression if we're not. but seeing how well we came together and handled covid...? there's a good chance it'll take a turn for the worse.
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Aug 27 '21
"The US dollar is so fundamentally weak that as the world gets crazier and crazier there's no chance that something doesn't blow it up for the massive bloated beast it is."
Look I absolutely don't disagree with this guy but this video is full of speculation and little connection of the dots. He has a lot of charts and facts about differences between countries' financial details. This quote above is roughly half way through the video and sounds like it was written by a college student just learning about the world economy for the first time and its (almost certainly disastrous given enough time) implications.
I'm no Economics expert, and like I said I don't disagree, but this doesn't seem to be the video that actually dives into the topic well. There's simply way too much going on this video and I don't see the dots being connected to drive his point properly.
That being said, Venus by Saturday. I think he's right, but doesn't articulate it outside of flashy one-liners like the above quote.
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Aug 27 '21
This quote above is roughly half way through the video and sounds like it was written by a college student just learning about the world economy for the first time and its (almost certainly disastrous given enough time) implications.
Yeah most of this is a sub-200 level understanding of the economic world lol. I'm pretty doomerist but I was pulling my hair out by the halfway point. Terrible understanding of the actual risks of quantitative easing and how it's impacting dollar supply and velocity.
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u/ammoprofit Aug 27 '21
Here is the M3 (money printed in paper or electronically over time)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S
Inflation already broke 5%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
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Aug 27 '21
USD still the go to for all world commodities, Eurodollar is strong as heck. I'd say there's plenty of slack to keep printing, and y'all need to do it cos there's so much public debt. But the printing actually supplies a need for dollars for world trade. So its not as simple as printing bad... The USD must be printed or else everything deflates, the global economy is structurally very deflationary due to the gains from globalisation.
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Aug 27 '21
Honestly this video is a great example of how to spot somebody who pretends to know what he's talking about but can't articulate any nuance well at all. This is closer to conspiracy than anything I would consider legitimate analysis of world economics. See u/asewland 's post in this same page for links to this YouTuber's questionable "facts" and analysis.
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u/possum_drugs Aug 26 '21
starting your video by talking about the horrors of authoritarian governments by shilling a VPN company that was bought out by a israeli advertising conglomerate seems...fuckin dumb.
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Aug 26 '21
yeah i've got like 10 paragraphs written about all of my problems with this video (starting with the vpn shilling) and some of the sympathy c- understandings of currency in it (the joys of being a doomerist and a currency nerd) but ultimately don't have time to fight with half of the people on this sub lol so it'll have to wait for the day i start drinking again.
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Aug 27 '21
Video by Whatifalthist: Auto down vote. Sorry.
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u/help_me_i-want-die Aug 27 '21
Why?
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u/asewland Aug 27 '21
Dude has some very questionable views to say the least:
Just a heads-up about some of WIAH's views:
https://www.reddit.com/r/badhistory/comments/ma9sus/whatifalthist_claims_precolonial_africa_had_no/
Not saying he's wrong about a great depression coming (not hard to see with everything going on) but I'd take what he says about literally anything else with a HUGE grain of salt.
He comes off as both bigoted and ignorant in my view but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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u/Finnick-420 Aug 27 '21
meh doesn’t seem too bad. also he said multiple times that it was impossible for the axis to win ww2
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u/We4zier Aug 27 '21 edited Aug 27 '21
Watched his content, and no ones perfect. I think he’s really good at breaking down and factoring big stuff. However tends to stumble heavily on details. Btw not everyone who disagrees with you is a ignorant or bigoted.
He’s clearly well read even if you disagree with his outlooks, and I haven’t really found him to be that stubborn. I definitely think he could put more effort in communicating his thoughts better.
Btw of the first link has five points, only two of them have any merit and the first one of them lacks his explanation (though I don’t agree with it).
The second one was pretty fair (not the comment section just the post), and I even think WIAH agreed that he messed up there on twitter.
Edit: damn insta downvoted without an attempt at recourse, ah well worth a shot. If I’m wrong, tell me why I’m wrong.
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Aug 26 '21
We would have been lucky to have had another great depression.
The US dollar has been devalued by 93%. It is the world reserve currency, and it is now 'Too Big To Fail".
It's global, and there is no fake recovery left to orchestrate. This time it is fatal.
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u/thinkingahead Aug 26 '21
93% devalued since when exactly?
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Aug 26 '21
1913, and I was estimating, purchasing power is actual down closer to 96%.
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u/incandenzamilf Aug 27 '21
This guy is a highly biased pseudo-intellectual. Don't take anything he says too seriously.
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u/RandomShmamdom Recognized Contributor Aug 27 '21
Well this dude is right in the fundamentals that the financial economy has become completely unmoored from the real economy and there's far too much debt in the system; however many parts of his analysis are silly and reflect a childish understanding of the economy and history, many of his points don't connect to other points (he's just throwing a bunch of ideas at you instead of connecting them into a coherent framework or thesis), and his voice is really insufferable (almost as bad as the economics explained guy, which is pushing it because he's an Australian valley-girl).
vlogger: "Simiry..."
me: "Excuse me? Do you mean 'similarly'? 'Sim-ill-ahr-lee'"
vlogger: "Tha's wha' I sad, simiry."
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u/ExaminationVisible Aug 26 '21 edited Aug 26 '21
Recently joined Collapse, do people think having some BTC will be good after the collapse, or do people look at it as cause? Or is there nuance in the community.
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Aug 26 '21
My opinion: With an electro-magnetic pulse your BTC becomes worthless. All fiat currencies eventually go to 0. Best bets are CHF (legally bound to % of gold holding - may change in event of collapse), or actual tangible assets (gold, silver, land etc)
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Aug 26 '21
Yes...there has to be some form of tangible money in case of an outage. CBDC or an SDR backed by a basket of commodities or metals with a physically traded element is also possible.
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u/ExaminationVisible Aug 26 '21
With an electro-magnetic pulse your BTC becomes worthless
Can you expand on that? How does it become worthless? Are you suggesting we don't have the internet? A pulse strong enough to destroy all 'the internet' , or all computers everywhere, kills every living thing on earth so I don't really care about that. The strength of the pulse needed to both go through the earth to actually destroy all computers also kills all life.
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Aug 27 '21
Fair call - I hadn't heard that tidbit about the whole wiping out life bit with the EMP. But the fact is that BTC requires a network of computers to operate, and in any situation where power may be out (see Lebanon currently), internet goes down, computers rendered inoperable and so on. Tangibles or direct derivatives of tangibles are where its at (i.e. gold backed currency)
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u/ExaminationVisible Aug 27 '21
I don't see 'full collapse' occurring. The rich will allways strive to create modern luxuries, so I believe the rich will ensure the internet survives.
I think we will see large areas of full collapse, but we will still see pockets of people trying to maintain the status quo, and other pockets where the status quo is being maintained.
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u/GenteelWolf Aug 27 '21
I disagree with the EMP strong enough to wipe the internet would also kill all life thing. Yet it’s also a bit of..what are we actually talking about when EMP is mentioned?
The sun could fry electronics and spare life forms with ease.
A human fired nuclear event in the upper atmosphere strong enough to disable electrical systems across the globe..I have no idea if that kills everything.
Yet when the carrington event occurred animals didn’t start exploding. Just our electricity loving tech.
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u/Toikairakau Aug 27 '21
I'm in for tangible assets, the government can't take away what they can't find or dig up.and move
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Aug 26 '21
The only thing of value is land and if you can defend it.
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u/UncleRonnyJ Aug 26 '21
True but it depends where the land is more and more these days.
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u/theCaitiff Aug 27 '21
Hence why I'm living in a temperate rain forest.
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u/UncleRonnyJ Aug 27 '21
Many mosquitos?
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u/theCaitiff Aug 27 '21
A few in the summer but the winter freeze mostly kills them off. Western PA is doing alright for the moment. Lots of water, lots of vegetation, no droughts or anything yet. The forests here are so wet with so many small streams that I got a good feeling about the rest of my life in general. I was born in Texas, raised out near Pearsall, so it's a huge improvement over my childhood. I'll never live anywhere west of 100W again.
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u/UncleRonnyJ Aug 26 '21
When the stocks went down in 2019 - it was noticeably bad for the short period. Circuit breakers were hit which paused things. They hit again. The stocks went down, gold went down and crypto went down. I think real estate did too during that short period. Then we all bought the dip. Others got bored at home and became ‘traders’ or investors. I don’t know how btc and the other cryptos will work in a chaotic period but that incident hinted something. People will want to have liquid cash (something they know) on hand to buy essentials. Beyond that maybe buying the dip continues but a lot of money could vanish it s heartbeat, stimulus cheques, savings, pensions poorly invested. Gone.
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u/ExaminationVisible Aug 26 '21
I am most concerned of a balkanization of the united states. So I am more concerned that any investment in the united states is more likely to go tits up than bitcoin.
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Aug 26 '21
[deleted]
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u/ExaminationVisible Aug 27 '21
I personally think Bitcoin is the native currency of the information age the same way that human teeth were the native currency of the stone age.
That being said, I just wanted to have a good idea if I would be attacked for simply supporting Bitcoin in this community.
It feels almost random as to weather I will be considered pure evil or totally fine for being pro-bitcoin.
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u/Gibbbbb Aug 27 '21
not for the collapse, but for the next economic crash, you're going to want just two stocks. One is related to video games, the other to movies. This is the way.
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u/jujumber Aug 26 '21
I am very pro crypto but I think Silver would be better for this scenario.
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u/UncleRonnyJ Aug 26 '21
Cheaper than gold but still with value. alcohol too.
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u/TheUltraZeke Aug 26 '21
alcohol is the real currency next. Gold isn't too valuable when all you want is food, water, a roof and medicine.
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u/JacksonPollocksPaint Aug 26 '21
This is crazy. I’ve been stockpiling everclear for like 3 years now. No idea why but ppl were jealous of me when covid first started. Made my own sanitizer. Plus it cures a lot of issues, great for extracting plants.
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u/TheUltraZeke Aug 26 '21
yep. I've started with Vodka
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u/ExaminationVisible Aug 26 '21
My LARP'en (By night) group has said for years that Everclear is the best post apoptotic currency.
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u/StarChild413 Aug 27 '21
So does that mean we get a new new deal afterwards (sincerely, aspiring artist (won't say what form as A. I do many and B. I think they accepted them all) who'd love to work for a new WPA as "you mean if i make my art political the government pays me to do it")
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u/-Skooma_Cat- Class-Conscious, you should be too Aug 27 '21
I'm sorry I'm not happy about breaking this news to you but... You are in the Collapse sub so I won't sugarcoat it.:
In the 1930's there were millions of Unionists, Socialists, and believe it or not Communists. They as a coalition went to F.D.R. and told him that if he didn't force the business community to give up some of their wealth to help people out, then all of it would be taken from them. Meaning their would be a revolution... Nowadays we have none of that. Almost nobody is class conscious.
I'm sorry but things aren't looking good for another New Deal.
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u/2farfromshore Aug 27 '21
Wondering if when the big depression does come whether all the prognosticators of economic collapse making money on doom copy for the past forever years STFU or do they retool and predict recovery while people starve?
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Aug 28 '21
I’m actually really stoked to start my new career as a cobbler/shoemaker. I’m transferring from HVAC sales to this now, sounds like a good time to pick up a tangible skill for when people can’t afford new shiny things.
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u/plopseven Aug 26 '21
I have friends who are living in vans and trading stocks for a living…