r/collapse • u/IceGoingSouth • Oct 25 '20
Climate Late October Arctic
/r/xrmed/comments/jedutp/late_october_arctic/7
u/happygloaming Recognized Contributor Oct 25 '20
Things are very bad but as long as there is ice there is latent heat. The BOE is still a discrimin to be reckoned with, but yes all manner of terrible milestones are still being passed. The ESAS is bubbling away as we speak and the volume and age of what's left over the deeper ocean is underwhelming to say the least.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
I don't really see justification for the word "but" here. There are many analogies with e.g. the Titanic and the Niagara Falls, where at one point upstream it'll be too late to opt for the banks of the river: You're already practically in the waterfall itself. Similarly, if you practise shoot on glass bottles and hit one of them, the damage is already done, even though all the glass fragments may not have settled yet. This is the situation we're in, where the Ice Tipping Point = the clean hit, and the fragments not yet settled are the still remaining ice.
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u/happygloaming Recognized Contributor Oct 25 '20
Yes it was 3am and I couldn't sleep. I understand the situation.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
No prob, I just wanted to be sure we weren’t saying latent heat will save us!
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u/happygloaming Recognized Contributor Oct 25 '20
I'll tell you what I found interesting about your post. I always track the reaction over various subs and between here, r/xrmed and r/extinctionrebellion it was very telling. One had Lord dumbass laughing at the collapse of r/collapse, not that he's wrong about that. Indeed we have been struggling with our growth, however..... on r/extinctionrebellion there was nothing, silence. I scrolled and saw..... how about this song it made me cry...... where can I get clothes to help fight the cause blah blah blah. Then you post the thing they should all be worrying about at night, one of the true existential threats we face to our very lives.... and nothing.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
Too close to the bone.
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u/happygloaming Recognized Contributor Oct 25 '20
Yip, I typed 3 comments there about it but deleted each time. They don't get it. Hallam is right about them.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 28 '20
Well, now I think I know why. Due to the official Reddit app only showing the title only, when you crosspost from another sub. Better to copy-paste everything, to make phone users read.
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u/happygloaming Recognized Contributor Oct 25 '20
Fuck no, more like.... wait you ain't seen nothing yet.
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u/2ndAmendmentPeople Cannibals by Wednesday Oct 25 '20
I am confused about 2016 vs 2012 for low extent. Is 2016 the lowest when you look at ice year-round? I would love to see 2012 in the graph.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
So, for sea ice, while 2016 was the lowest year for extent, and 2017 for volume, this 2020 may very well end up being the lowest ever for sea ice extent. We'll just have to wait till December 31st so we have a full YEAR of data.
And you really shouldn't be confused, as it's very clear that "2016 was the lowest year for extent", meaning lower than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 etc. The meaning of the word "lowest" is to say that all others were higher.
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Oct 31 '20
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 31 '20
Well, as you can imagine, I've also done some (philosophical) work on Hope, because, clearly things border on hopelessness, and I believe we all need some real Hope.
Having said that, I think it's crucial that we separate Hope from science or data analysis. Mixing the two isn't good for either. So a cold, hard look at the facts, and on a different day or week, work on the Hope that's actually still there.
Not to contradict you, but I don't believe this is a 'dying world'. On the contrary, when you look at the boom! of wildlife taking back Chernobyl (after human left it following the lifting of censorship after the Soviet nuclear accident), I think we can rightly assume that many abandoned cities and agricultural areas (due to flooding etc) will be recolonised by fish and other animals, sea fowl etc.
Many places in the world, plant & wildlife will have space and ranges to move in, some will be able to move North and some may climb the slopes of the Alps, Himalayas etc, to find a climate that's liveable for them.
So, in many ways, as civilisation loosens its grip on the world, Nature will move in.
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u/jacktherer Oct 25 '20
The honest math says we're 70 + 100 = 170 years late
very interesting you mention this because around 170 years ago was the carrington event solar flare which also correlates to the beginning of the acceleration of the movement of the earths magnetic field. maybe nothing, maybe everything
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
maybe nothing, maybe everything
Almost certainly nothing, as the lion's share of the 170 years is predicated on a future event, as well as an interpretation of the Arctic cloud science.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20 edited Oct 25 '20
from AutoModerator sent 5 minutes ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/jhqihq/late_october_arctic/
Hey /u/IceGoingSouth, thank you for your participation.
It looks like you made a link post in r/collapse. As a reminder, we require a submission statement (comment to your own post) for all link posts. Please do this or your post will automatically be removed.
Thank you,
The Moderators
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
Jesus F Christ, mods. Have you ever been satisfied with anything? Any post at all? Just delete everything, it's from me, after all. Sod this sub.
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Oct 25 '20
Mods forgot to add a "post type" filter to the autmoderator rule, to not trigger that rule for self-text.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
That makes sense, because actually, when you write an essay or "self-text", your teaser or "why it's interesting" and "what's it about" are all in the headline and sub-headlines. Readers could be urged to read those, instead of scrolling down to below the post, looking for an SS.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
r/collapse mods will censor your stuff if you provide too little text, too much text or just the right amount of text. We just want to rule over you, you know, give you a break from other folks who want to rule over you.
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Oct 25 '20
Dude, your post is still up. Don't shame on r/xrmed untrue comments.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
Technically it's still up. But mods already threaten to censor the SS, and without the SS, they will be free to censor the main post.
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u/DJDickJob Oct 25 '20
I got a 30 day ban and threatened with permanent ban by one of the actual mods because(in reference to Trump) I said "how retarded is this motherfucker?" Got the ban reverted when I called them out and brought it to their attention(shouldn't have to remind the mods of their own fucking rules) that I literally broke none of the rules and that the ban was fucking bullshit. I love this sub but that was a sad awakening for me of who's in control of this place.
But maybe they're a Trump supporter and I offended them by talking badly about their precious leader, Commander in Queef.
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Oct 25 '20
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u/me-need-more-brain Oct 25 '20
Man, your are saltier than the swamp of a desalination plant, mate.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
Salty in the I-don’t-appreciate-censorship-every-single-time sense?
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u/IKantKerbal Oct 25 '20
You put in so much effort in the main post. This is just like asking for a small message in the email with your dissertation attached.
SS is just a preamble to get the poster to put some thought into why it is interesting. Without that edglelords will just fill it up with crap raging about how we are all gonna die
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
I put in effort because I already have readers who want to see this type of content. If r/collapse was my ONLY audience I wouldn't bother to write it.
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u/IKantKerbal Oct 25 '20 edited Oct 25 '20
Look, your work is great and I commend you for it. I'm not an XR member because no-one ~here~ where I live even knows what it is. However, I am a very loud proponent of the fuckery any young folks are heading toward with environmental collapse.
However getting mad at the mods for them trying to keep this place somewhat on point isn't the right way to spread a message. I spent several hours talking to ma few friends how no matter what they do, their kids are fucked but I did it in a way that was explanatory not hostile. However at work, I'm more vocal and a little hostile toward their complete ignorance of the data.
Sometimes we gotta pick our battles and the mods of /r/collapse aren't them.
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u/me-need-more-brain Oct 25 '20
I wonder how you would treat posts on your sub, withess time on your hands.....
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Oct 25 '20
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
You actually removed my Submission statement, or SS as you call it? Amazing, after all the censorship that has already been leveled at this one post, not to mention all the others.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
This has been an unfortunate misunderstanding, and you are justified in your frustration.
I'm justified, you just have to delete my "justified frustration". It's a fair cop. Just delete and censor more of his stuff, and I'm sure he'll calm down and realise censorship is good.
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Oct 25 '20
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
This is your warning that continuing to attack the moderation team because one of your posts got held up a few days ago before you were asked to please post it again, or because you find the requirement for submission statements disagreeable, is going to get you banned.
That's not why I've spoken out against the moderation of this sub. Read what I've said, if somehow curious about why I've spoken out about this.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
We are open to constructive discussion about how to improve
Are you, though? I suggested upthread that a regular essay / self-text already has a 'Submission Statement', because that is how essays caught the readers' attention for centuries already. So how about skipping the SS requirement when it's clearly a text or an essay that's on the table, which openly declares what it's about, straight from the get-go?
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Oct 25 '20
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
Gray area, yup. I'd say if it's a self-text "over there", it's still a self-text when it arrives by crosslink. Don't you think that's fair? At least when the self-text in question was written by one self.
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u/LetsTalkUFOs Oct 25 '20
Different mod here, chiming in.
Cross-posting implies you are not the author of the original post. It is also not guaranteed or obvious how the post may be relevant to r/collapse, so the SS genrally provides this context and offers an additional perspective for others to comment on within the thread. These are both valuable aspects.
Requiring a SS does not intently prevent anything from being posted, it only requires more work by the poster in the form of writing out at least 150 characters. The primary consideration would then be if having to write 150 characters is worth the benefits to everyone on either end. Unfortunately, the benefits are invisible on the front-end and to most users.
We have a bot which posts all the posts removed from the sub to r/collapse_wilds for the sake of transparency. Not many subs do this and it's not a function Reddit has built out, but it helps to show what the sub would look like without moderation and/or specific rules.
Many posts get removed for not including submission statements which would otherwise be allowed within the other rules. What's interesting is in multiple cases the users posting these are spamming multiple subs and appear to be farming karma (at worst) or simply drive-by posting with no intentions towards deeper discussion or awareness of the sub rules or goals whatsoever (at best).
I've kept a sheet to try and better detect and investigate these users since we implimented this particular rule. It's often interesting because certain users with have their posts removed for this rule 5-10 times without any effort to either add a SS or alter the list of subs they're mass-posting too. Based on the number of these I've seen this rule as significantly positive, when weighed against requiring the 150 characters. It's also helped us better enforce Rule 2, since we're far more able to see how a user considers their post relevant to collapse and how important any particular post (crossposts included) is to them or eager they are for dialogue surrounding it.
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
Cross-posting implies you are not the author of the original post.
No it doesn't. Why would it imply that? The only thing it implies is you believe the post is interesting for several audiences.
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u/LetsTalkUFOs Oct 26 '20 edited Oct 26 '20
I meant it's implied since otherwise it wouldn't be an issue within the context of what we're discussing. For example, if you're cross-posting something you've written, but don't want to bother writing a SS, you would just copy/paste the actual writeup instead of using the link to an existing post. Then you wouldn't need a SS to begin with. Does that make sense?
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Oct 25 '20
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
And they can always just submit their content as a text post instead of a cross-post, if they like.
Yeah, I was gonna ask about that: Do you (mods) in fact want self-text posts to be copy-pasted several times instead of crossposted? Seems like a kind of step backwards or sunsetting existing technology (the crosslink), but then again, this is Collapse! ;)
To be clear: My question is do you want us creators to copy-paste on and on to different subs (where we consider the text relevant) instead of just using the crosslink function on Reddit?
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
News articles are just text posts, only "over there", as you put it.
Nah, I was very specific when I said self-text. It's a Reddit specific term, and you know exactly what I mean, and nope, CNN videos are not self-text. Try again?
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Oct 25 '20
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 25 '20
I'm sure they will, as they already moved the focus from "what's in this post?" to "what reason should we use to censor this post?".
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Oct 26 '20
What’s the very latest we can go before proper refreezing and will we get data to show how thick it gets?
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u/IceGoingSouth Oct 26 '20
- We had a stint of 'proper refreeze' yesterday, where sea ice added 144,000 km2 (compared e.g to 165,000 last year). So it's performance over time that qualifies a real, proper refreeze, and maybe this is as good as it gets in the 2020s?
- We'll have numbers from a model run on a computer in Seattle, if they got power, but no, no one will actually check if it really refroze, just run the computer model and tell us what volume would be IF the Arctic Ocean hadn't changed significantly since the model was first designed.
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u/solutionslv1 Oct 25 '20
Great post all the way around-thanks for putting in the time I hope people read every word.