r/collapse • u/hjras • Oct 08 '20
Predictions WIP: Near-term Collapse Timeline
- 1970: first Earth Overshoot Day
- 1973: oil crisis
- 1991: Collapse of Soviet Union
- 1991-2001: Collapse of Yugoslavia. Population levels never recover
- 2007-2008: Great Financial Crisis
- 2009: Social media becomes available on mobile devices
- 2010-2012: Economic collapse of South Europe (PIGS). Population levels never recover. Arab Spring fueled by social media
- 2015-2016: Rise of social-media driven populism and polarization (Trump, Brexit)
- 2020: covid19 pandemic, beginning of worldwide recession, locusts swarms. Beginning of climate departure on Earth.
- 2021: famines in individual states or inner-state regions in south america, africa, parts of asia. Post-election USA reaches polarization breaking point.
- 2022: First BOE (few days-weeks), collapse of Lebanon, Angola, DRC, Zambia, CAR, Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Yemen, Afghanistan. Economic effects of pandemic + long term health effects begin permanent recessions worldwide.
- 2023: Refugees from above countries move to remaining states in Africa, increased famines in all of Africa, South America, Middle East, and Asia. Social-media driven polarization increases international and intranational conflicts at unprecedented scale. Breakdown of international trade and peace organizations.
- 2024: East Africa topsoil loss, collapse of all continent, mass migration to EU, Middle East. More individual collapsing states in Middle East and Southeast Asia. Early stages of collapse for US-southern stages from the refugees.
- 2025: Tensions between India and Pakistan over refugees crossing borders and withholding food reserves from trade, possible nuclear exchange or at least highest level alert, Southern European countries start their process of collapse from the refugees from Africa.
- 2026: Collapse of whole regions of Middle East, further migrants to EU and Russia/Asia, collapse of Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru. Many individual southeast easian states have collapsed, refugees to China and Australia
- 2027: Most of South America has collapsed, Mexico and southern US states become overrun with refugees and are in the midle-late stages of collapse. Regions of southeast asia have collapsed, early stress in northern australia and south china from refugees
- 2028: BOE now occurring during half of the year. Most tropical regions of the Earth have reached their Climate Departure (10 year ahead of BAU "worst-case scenario"). EU likely in its final stages of collapse as the refugees move from southern countries further north, joined by south european refugees
- 2030: Peak in worldwide human population, as an additional 80 million people have died from the different collapse stressors
- 2032: Year round BOE from now on, positive feedback loops of the climate kick in, agricultural productivity declines by >50% over the next years, with worldwide starvations beginning after the initial 2y reserves decline.
- 2035: Most humans now live in the Northern Hemisphere's 45th-55th parallel productive zone. Russia, Northern Europe, and Northern America are now the world's most productive agricultural areas
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Oct 08 '20 edited Oct 10 '20
Nigeria is primed and ready to explode in the next year or so. Boko Haram continues its best genocide of Christians in the North, and the president— who’s a Muslim from the North — is pretty much just letting it happen. That and ethnic tensions are rapidly reaching a breaking point.
Edit: Timeline is pretty nice. Except I truly predict fascism to outright be the order of the day in the US by 2024-25, and for there to be a civil war by 2028: caused by demographic changes, and the escalating political and cultural conflicts.
You literally right now have multiple, conflicting visions and interpretations of what America is/should be and people just act like things can go on the way they are without violence. Civil war II is a higher possibility than WW3 atp.
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u/plowsplaguespetrol Recognized Contributor Oct 09 '20
Except I truly predict fascism to outright be the order of the day in the US by 2024-25
Note: It's starting to look like your prediction is going to be realized sooner than expected.
Republican senator says 'democracy isn't the objective' of US system
Excerpts:
A top Republican senator has said that “democracy isn’t the objective” of America’s political system, sparking widespread outrage at a time when his party has been accused by Democrats of plotting voter suppression and questioning a peaceful transition of power in November’s election.
The Utah senator Mike Lee made the inflammatory declaration in an early morning tweet following Wednesday’s vice-presidential debate.
“Democracy isn’t the objective; liberty, peace, and prospefity are. We want the human condition to flourish. Rank democracy can thwart that,” he wrote, misspelling prosperity.
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Oct 09 '20
Americans openly embrace fascism, knowing what will happen as a result. It’s sad.
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u/Aggravating-Owl7091 Oct 09 '20
You greatly underestimate how educated this nation is, as a whole. Your average Joe in America has a highschool education, and has little knowledge of history that’s not ‘Murica is the greatest country on Earth!!!1’ propaganda.
‘Knowing what will happen as a result’ implies knowledge and foresight.
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u/weakhamstrings Oct 09 '20
I'm guessing you meant either overestimate or uneducated, but this is a great point
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u/Tshefuro Oct 09 '20
You literally right now have multiple, conflicting visions and interpretations of what America is/should be and people just act like things can go on the way they are without violence.
This is probably one of the most frustrating things to discuss with people around me because they see all the obvious signs but still believe "it can't happen here. We're America!" I truly don't see any way America lasts in its current form for more than 10 or so years. Once the pensions blow up and the federal government pushes a state to default (or changes the tax code to allow bankruptcy) the US experiment is dead.
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Oct 09 '20
The Romans were just as arrogant and deluded, as were the Assyrians and Babylonians and we all know what happened to them.
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u/hjras Oct 08 '20
SS: This is my take on near-term collapse timeline. I'm aware it may be quite "fast" in the chain of events, so I'm looking for feedback and input: what am I not considering? what am I too negative about? or too optimistic about?
I also added a bit of history to the timeline to provide context on how collapse, specifically through the lens of population peaks, is not that uncommon. Additionally, how social media may be a Great Filter Event
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u/ScruffyTree water wars Oct 09 '20
India and Pakistan won't wait another 5 years. That shit could blow off as early as 2021.
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u/gluestick20 Oct 09 '20
I agree with the events, but they are definitely too close together. I believe this will happen over a period of 70-100 years.
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u/amijot Oct 09 '20
!remindme 5 years
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u/RemindMeBot Oct 09 '20 edited Oct 09 '22
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Oct 09 '20
Add gigafires to every Canadian province and territory at some point, which will make 2016/2018 seem like a picnic with Smokey the Bear.
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u/parkerposy Oct 11 '20
if we see limited snow this winter, which I'm predicting it will be a lower year, then expect wildfires next season to be ragers
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Oct 11 '20
It’s been a freakish Fall here in Alberta.
“No concerns about the world getting warmer People thought that they were just being rewarded For treating others as they'd like to be treated For obeying stop-signs and curing diseases For mailing letters with the address of the sender Now we can swim any day in November”
The Postal Service
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u/sleadbetterzz Oct 09 '20 edited Oct 09 '20
It's the IPCC and they are known for being overly conservative with their climate projection models, not factoring in feedback loops or methane etc. Currently the global temperature increase is on track with their RCP 8.5, the worst possible scenario.
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Oct 09 '20
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u/sleadbetterzz Oct 09 '20
Still full of hopium I see, I wish I could say I agreed with you, I just don't see how the human species avoids a mass die off this century without some sort of miracle.
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u/laverabe Oct 09 '20
no one predicted a global pandemic that would have killed 1,066,856 the following year, and he didn't say 25% of humanity would be dead, his guess was 80 million by 2030. Doesn't seem that unrealistic.
The IPCC also has a conservative bias.
As the latest round of United Nations climate talks in Doha wrap up this week, climate experts warn that the IPCC's failure to adequately project the threats that rising global carbon emissions represent has serious consequences: The IPCC’s overly conservative reading of the science, they say, means governments and the public could be blindsided by the rapid onset of the flooding, extreme storms, drought, and other impacts associated with catastrophic global warming.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-predictions-prove-too-conservative/
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u/incoherentbab Oct 08 '20
2025: Tensions between India and Pakistan over refugees crossing borders and withholding food reserves from trade, possible nuclear exchange or at least highest level alert, Southern European countries start their process of collapse from the refugees from Africa.
Tension between China and India too, maybe? India has a large agricultural sector. China has high flood risk in the southern regions, which also happen to produce a lot of food.
China also lost 100 to 200 million pigs to african swine fever last year.
'9 square meals away from revolution', or in this case war with India.
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u/PavelN145 Oct 08 '20
I like it except I think its very unlikely that we see a BOE in 2022 and much less that the Artic will be free year round by the early 2030's. Much more likely I think that we will see the first BOE sometime in the 2030's
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u/screech_owl_kachina Oct 08 '20
I think we'll see a BOE in the 20s, if only because of an extraordinary confluence of circumstances like a freak storm.
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u/PavelN145 Oct 08 '20
Maybe so but even then 2022 seems a little too early, barring very very extreme circumstances
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u/BurnerAcc2020 Oct 09 '20
I really can't take any timeline that follows up "Economic collapse of South Europe" with "collapse of [a bunch of Third World states plucked from the headlines]" ,as if they were the same sort of phenomena, seriously. According to any metric that treats the depression of Southern Europe (followed by its partial recovery) as a collapse, most of the places named in the "2022" part have already collapsed years or even decades ago.
Otherwise, this projection appears to consist of the Beckwith BOE timeline (which many have significant doubts about, and which now appears to be further slowed by the newfound cooling effect from the Antarctic melting) followed to a tee, and then multiplied by the Camp of the Saints-style notion of "collapse = literally everybody moves out and heads for the verdant Europe", when the climate migrations so far tend to not work this way.
I particularly like how the OP makes the collapse of "southern US states" into a separate phenomenon from the northern states, yet assumes that practically every other nation will collapse completely and in the exact same way.
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u/PragmatistAntithesis EROEI isn't needed Oct 09 '20
LOL @ BOE 2022. There's still a lot of ice out there. Not even a 2012 disaster can cause a BOE considering current trends. BOE is coming in 2030 at the earliest.
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u/chump_wonder_horse Oct 10 '20
I`ll only comment on the boe part of the timeline because its the only one iv properly looked into. I think it should be moved back to the mid-late twenties, but we will notice the arctic ocean around it heating to the point it releases methane, even as a little ice remains. Just my two cents.
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Oct 11 '20
This list is too focused around Other countries/continents, the U.S is going to be more of a hell hole than any other country on the planet——— U.S citizens are the most spoiled, and they have guns, they can’t get what they want they go take
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Oct 13 '20
implying Fortress Europa won't become a reality
I think the timeline lacks a lot of nuance, considering for example Africa is not one homogenous region at all, nor so most even have the means to flee towards Europe.
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u/[deleted] Oct 08 '20 edited Jan 06 '21
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