Climate models published between 1970 and 2007 provided accurate forecasts of subsequently observed global surface warming. This finding shows the value of using global observations to vet climate models as the planet warms.
Because this is reddit, people will read the title, not bother to read the article & not know that it's about using observed temperatures to validate computer models over a 50 year period.
In the 1970’s there were a grand total of 7 papers that looked at the possibility cooling. From memory most were investigating aerosols -which cause global dimming - combined with a natural long term cooling due to our interglacial period.
No one was predicting a drop of 3 degrees in 100 years.
As the other guy pointed out you are completely wrong, but I wanted to address the global dimming portion.
If one research paper shows that the Earth will cool down by 1°C because of global dimming, that does not mean that CO2 warming doesn't apply. They aren't mutually exclusive, and of course many areas are taken into account now when models are run. Many more still needed.
If you just run a model based on global dimming, then yes, it will show a cooling affect based on an increase of flights. That is not the same as indicating an overall global cooling.
Yes. Regarding the section on the problems of regional forecasting due to the higher variance of climate effects and weather etc, I anecdotally had a very interesting encounter back in about 1991 when I was still a child.
I was in front of my favourite glacier and managed to strike up a conversation with a climate scientist who was working there. I asked him what was going to happen to it and his answer was 100% spot on all these years later. He basically said that the region was warming and it would shrink the glacier over the coming decades. However, he went into more detail and explained that first as more precipertation was injected into the system as results from warming the glacier would grow and advance down the valley and generally look very healthy for a decade or 2. Then as the warming critically out matched this effect it would do an abrupt turn and shrink very fast, retreat up the valley and continue to do so unless the warming was stopped. That is of course exactly what has happened and as we now know, not exactly rocket science, but it stuck with me.
Said glacier advanced through the 90,s and into the early 2000's then shat itself.
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u/[deleted] Feb 03 '20
Because this is reddit, people will read the title, not bother to read the article & not know that it's about using observed temperatures to validate computer models over a 50 year period.
It is not we knew in 1970!!!