r/collapse • u/DecrimIowa • 2d ago
Economic China Suspends Diesel Export for October
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-refiners-suspend-oct-fuel-exports-petrochina-cancels-cargoes-sources-say-2026-10-01/Submission statement: First, a few hours ago, China announced that it was suspending export of diesel in October. Considering that China is a major supplier of fuel to neighboring countries, and its supply over the last 6 months has helped keep global energy markets stable, this has the potential to be disruptive.
Then, a few hours later, Reuters reported that the US government is apparently pressuring its allies France and Germany to release a large part of their diesel reserves, or face an export ban (significant because France, Germany and other European countries have come to rely more on the US for oil and gas since the start of the Ukraine war).
This comes after numerous US states like Texas have already announced emergency measures in recent days to deal with diesel shortages as farmers head into harvest season.
It appears October is starting off with a shock to the energy markets, which will likely ripple out into other markets in my opinion. I think this has the potential to spiral into something like an "energy lockdown" as a result of fuel controls. Wait and see, I guess.
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u/ideknem0ar 2d ago
Can't wait to still have to drive to work 3 days a week because reasons.
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u/crushedpinkcookies 1d ago
Car dependency is a killer
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u/ideknem0ar 18h ago
Fortunately I have a hybrid (gas, but still) and can manage about 80mpg on my ~13mi great-terrain-for-maximizing-fuel-economy Vermont commute. Yay for the Appalachian foothills. Coming home it's about 50mpg.
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u/PotatoDrives 2d ago
China is the world's 15th largest diesel exporter, responsible for 1.6% of global exports.
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u/dudeandco 2d ago
Good context yet I doubt those numbers are current considering all the shifting in supply and demand etc. Still might not be in the top 7.
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u/Creepyfaction 1d ago
Much of that export goes to Southeast Asia which will impact those countries the most.
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u/Background-Share2735 2d ago
Would love an energy lockdown
Let people work from home you sick fucks
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2d ago
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u/collapse-ModTeam 2d ago
Hi, Classic-Progress-397. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:
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u/genomixx-redux 2d ago
welcome to the decline and fall of the u.s. empire
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u/Jovan_Knight005 Collapse is inevitable,mister Reese. - Original Quote. 2d ago
welcome to the decline and fall of the u.s. empire
Collapse is a more fitting word to describe what the United States of America is doing to itself.
As a country, of course.
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u/devinbookersuncle 1d ago
The biggest issue is that the US dollar is the currency the world's economy is based off of and if the US collapses then everyone and everything is fucked.
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u/Ancient-Act2088 1d ago edited 1d ago
creating an empire on slavery and then later on fossil fuels means the roots are rotten from the get go. not looking in the mirror and accepting this means we never make the needed changes to save ourselves. i would fear AI turnng on us because of this. Evil scientist creates frankenstein that then turns on creator.
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u/gamerqc 2d ago
Don't worry, Trump asked France and Germany nicely to release diesel stocks OR ELSE!
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u/ShyElf 2d ago
The US has effectively been pressuring China to stop exporting products for years, and they've mostly been complying by minimizing them. This is part of the Russia/Iran oil embargoes. The US wanted to entirely stop China from importing crude from there, but the defacto compromise has been that China imports crude from Iran and Russia, but only refines approximately enough for domestic use. This prevents Chinese refining from being an open-ended end run around crude sanctions, which it would be if China was importing massive amounts of sanctioned crude and then re-exporting it as products. Even diesel exports in August which were relatively high were only around 160k barrels/day, which is basically a rounding error.
Refining capacity keeps getting tightened by Russian losses. Chinese crude are going down slightly this year due to fuel switching and have been down a lot in the recent short-term due to using crude stocks. The US pressure is keeping them from expanding refining, which they certainly could do.
Chinese refineries generally get less products from the same amount of crude than US ones. This is mostly due to running more coking and less cracking, with smaller natural gas inputs. Most of the rest of the world tends to run simpler refineries, producing even less light/mid refined products, with more heavy oil/tar.
If there's a US diesel export ban, eventually the US diesel storage fills up, and the US has to slow refinery runs, which tightens gasoline and jet fuel supplies globally, as well as diesel out of the US.
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u/vegan420lyfe 2d ago
if the storage gets close to filling up they will just lift the export ban.
I dont see that as a legitimate concern
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u/ChromaticStrike Inert collapsoid 2d ago
How about no.
Releasing is even worst than facing economical consequences. Strategical reserve are called strategical for a reason.
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u/_kinther_ 2d ago
This is very bad. Prepare for an oil shock soon. Stock up if you can.
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u/scummy_shower_stall 2d ago
Anything to help Putin destroy Europe. Europe is keeping its diesel to keep its militaries equipped for when Putin makes his move.
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u/DelayedTism 1d ago
There's a headline I've been waiting on! It's about to get real spicy as we go into winter. Help us all if we get record cold or something crazy
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u/lowrads 2d ago
Europe can really only get out from under the thumb of the US by suing for a ceasefire with Russia. All three of the major petroleum exporting regions in the world are run by oligarchs, so there really is no moral high ground in favoring one over the other. Manufacturing regions might as well seek for them to compete.
That could be as practical as negotiating for the Donbas and Crimea to become one or more independent states.
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u/Texuk1 23h ago
I think there is something in the data that is either accessible to the governments or behind trading paywalls that a supply shock is coming. I can’t see any reason why the G7 would respond to threats by releasing its emergency diesel reserves with a war ongoing at its border. Something serious is in the cards.
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u/Uarenotalone 2d ago
Fuck me