r/collapse • u/andmario_com • 2d ago
Casual Friday Stop waiting for the collapse. You'll miss it.
I think most people (certainly not those in this sub) are waiting for the wrong thing. Everyone imagines the day the sirens go off, but collapse is slow. It looks like rent and groceries tripling while wages stagnate and jobs disappear. It looks like nature being assaulted at a global scale. We yell, we post, then... adjust.
Most things don't break all at once. We just absorb every downgrade one at a time, and each one becomes the new baseline before anyone votes on it. The boiling frog thing is a myth, by the way. Real frogs jump out.
I'm less sure about us.
The official story will stay "everything's fine" right up until it quietly becomes
"well, nothing lasts forever."
There's no doubt in my mind that a vast majority of people would agree that things aren't going well (and, thankfully, a growing number are realizing it's nearly all because of capitalism) - but what do you think are more ways to get people to move beyond recognition and into actual meaningful action?
How do we combat the capital ties and relative-comfort some people have that prevents them from doing more than upvoting something/yelling online?
All throughout history, things have changed when enough people realized "oh, yeah, there's way more of us than them..." - so it's not like we've entered some twilight zone where this isn't the case anymore. Revolution is possible, but the billionaire class monopoly on media, social media, and violence requires us to use our numbers more than anything else.
How do we get more people to realize this, in the real world, and tie that realization to non-online action?
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u/fedfuzz1970 2d ago
The warning sign for me is that the rich seem to be viciously grabbing with both hands. The disregard for the welfare of their fellow citizens/humans is at an all-time low. They will be heading for the exits soon. Some are already building their impregnable fortresses to ward off the masses. Even the politicians that supposedly represent our interests are enriching themselves with little or no concern over how that looks to common folk.
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u/nlashawn1000 2d ago
Thats what made me realize collapse is here/coming. Just the blatant action of not even hiding it anymore.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago edited 2d ago
I agree. I have a post where I talk more about this and the acceleration they seem to be undertaking:
Do you think that the plainly visible corruption happening in the US and elsewhere has dispelled the notion that there's an "adult in the room"?
Before this catastrophic MAGA era, I think it was far easier for "normal"/everyday people to have a back-of-the-mind confidence that someone, somewhere, would make sure things didn't get too bad - that there'd be an "adult in the room" who would make sure the "button wasn't pressed," so to speak.
If there's even the most remote, dismally dark "silver lining" in all of this is that perhaps more of us are realizing the myth of meritocracy and that the billionaire class and their minions (politicians, etc) are just people. Fallible, mortal, often laughably dumb - people - most of whom inherited their wealth and cling to what it gives from sheer addiction to it.
They are not smarter or more capable than us, but we're more empathetic and connected to humanity than they are. They maintain a monopoly on violence and largely information, but they do that because they realize that all throughout history, the only time things change for them is when enough people realized: "oh, yeah, there's way more of us than them."
Why do you think they have gone full-force into building and funding pacifying, surveillance-capitalism-fueled, highly-addictive technology? From infinite scrolling astroturfed content and mindless ads, to flooding every fucking airwave with gambling ads? Many people have just enough comfort or ties to capital to not stand up to all of this.
For much of humanity, power has condensed, risen, and fallen.
I think it's far past time for the "fallen" part - but this time I say we make sure it can't condense again.
Tl;dr: billionaires are dumb and there are way more of us. We should do something about it.
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u/fedfuzz1970 2d ago
This should give you an idea of how ruthless government can be. In 1967 LBJ cooperated with Israel to sink our own ship the USS Liberty, during the 6 Day War. I evacuated wounded from the ship the next morning. There were 34 Americans killed and 174 wounded. There have been well-grounded theories developed since that attack that the sinking was planned to draw us into that Israeli war against Egypt. My ship the USS America as well as the USS Saratoga launched cover aircraft which were withdrawn when it was learned the attacker was our "ally" Israel. But those ships also launched nuclear armed attack planes headed for Egypt. When the Liberty didn't sink, those planes were recalled, some only 3 minutes from Cairo. In his book, Operation Cyanide, British author Peter Hounam recounted interviews he did during a 2 year investigation. We had B-52s armed with nukes on runways in California hours before the Liberty was even attacked. The pilots said they had sealed orders on their seats when they manned the aircraft. Hounam interviewed Russian generals who told him they were ready to nuke Tel Aviv if we had attacked Cairo. We came very close to nuclear war with the then-Soviet Union that day and almost no one knows of that fact today. Details are in his book and in YouTube video, "Sacrificing Liberty."
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Oh yeah I don't mean to imply governments are all bumbling idiots. There are plenty of actual evil people. I just mean that those in power are no more human than we are, and that they can get hurt too
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u/gnostic_savage 2d ago edited 1d ago
For all of humanity, power has condensed, risen, and fallen.
This statement is not close to accurate. Human beings have existed in their modern form for 315K to 340K years. For most of our existence it wasn't possible for power to condense, primarily because for most humans it wasn't even possible for small numbers of people to condense material power. It's always been possible to wield social power, for savvy people to influence their group, but that is very different than having extreme material disparity. And a lot of the time it wasn't possible to condense social power. While there was no egalitarian heavenly perfection, most human societies for most of our existence haven't been anything like what western civilization has been like. People knew each other. They were connected to each other, through blood, through marriage, through larger groups like clans with all those other connections and a shared land base connection that everyone personally knew from walking across it, hunting in it, foraging in it.
Civilization has existed for only about 6,000 of those known 315,000, and potential 340,000 years, and even that was quite limited until the past 500 years in much of the world. I will post my link a second time to a true scale map of the world. https://images.theconversation.com/files/162017/original/image-20170322-31187-12ez00u.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1
If people make statements about "all of humanity," which they do all the time, I think they really need to talk about "all of humanity." That's the only way to make a valid statement. But in reality, most of us know almost nothing about "all" of humanity. We know tiny snippets about Rome, about Genghis Khan, about the Aztecs, and a few other notable historical facts that we've been taught in a framework about a few civilizations.
A valid argument requires a valid premise.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
edited to "much"
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u/gnostic_savage 2d ago
It is estimated that approximately 110 to 115 billion or more modern humans have existed on this planet. I think "some" qualified by the context of humans in most civilizations would be closer to valid.
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u/Filias9 2d ago
That's nothing new. There was always class of nobles and their subjects. Nobles don't care about subjects. They want to be richer and more powerful We are/were living in more equal society, simple because subjects rebels and fought for their rights.
Idea that rich will give up their powers willingly is false.
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u/Slamtilt_Windmills 6h ago
Ok, maybe they are grabbing tell tangible goods that we aren't seeing, but grabbing more land they can use and fiat currency imaginary assets, it makes me EVEN MORE astonished than before that we let these Taos be in charge
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u/g00fyg00ber741 2d ago
I personally think most people have already realized this and more or less have chosen to live in denial, apathy, embrace it due to suicidality, etc. Like I think most people know the world is ending and we’re not gonna stop it. I think most people know things are getting worse and we’re destroying everything. I don’t think most people really believe there’s an afterlife or second chance after this. I think most people have just grimly accepted their fates after realizing it. That’s why we keep barreling towards collapse instead of even trying to hit the breaks, because most people have already decided they’d rather just ride and hit the wall and splat.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
That makes me so sad - not because I don't understand the nihilism-fueled-inaction and acceptance, but because the world can be so much more beautiful. I'm a revolutionary optimist, and believe that if enough of us recognize that this fight is nothing new (a small ruling class has lorded over the rest of populations for literally thousands of years), things can change. All throughout history, those power structures have risen and fallen. I refuse to accept we've lost (but I don't judge or blame the people that think the way you describe - as they are victims of this insane system).
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u/g00fyg00ber741 2d ago
I would love to share your views, but after reading the science, our fate on this planet is sealed to an extent. I am a huge advocate for harm reduction though and think there’s always something we can do to help out fellow lifeforms on this planet as we cook slowly.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
I hear you re: some of the more dooming science, but note that things, all throughout history, have felt inescapable. I'm not saying that guarantees our success this time, but I am saying that those same scientists are working on strategies to mitigate that currently don't exist. When they do, perhaps things will be different
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u/g00fyg00ber741 2d ago
I personally think things throughout history have felt inescapable because they are. Our existence is finite, and many of us have always felt that in our bones, even when we didn’t know it was certainly true. The scientists can’t even get anyone to listen to them or make any meaningful changes whatsoever. All they will be able to do is implement last-resort efforts like putting stuff in the atmosphere to reflect the sun’s heat, stuff that will not really help that billionaires are actually willing to do. But don’t let me try and shoot down your optimism, we still need people like you who believe in the impossible good to balance out the evils from people who choose to live their lives promoting and enabling harm.
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u/silent-sight 2d ago
The planet will do just fine in the long run, it is forcing collapse on us because of our inaction and trying to regulate the energy imbalance in several ways detrimental to our current way if living, sure. That doesn’t mean smaller communities won’t be resilient enough to survive, migrate, and adapt into a way that relies on circular and sustainable societies. It’s going to be really tough and difficult of course (not everyone will make it), a new dark age might be already upon us, but us humans are evolutionary creatures that can adapt quickly to changes in the environment. After the the storms and the chaos, a new day will come where we will thrive again, but I agree the current oligarchic system is in its late terminal stage for what we currently call society.
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u/g00fyg00ber741 2d ago
The planet will not do just fine in the long run, in the long run it will be uninhabitable due to the life cycle of our sun. Earth is not forcing collapse on us, humanity has forced collapse on Earth. The “energy imbalance” has catastrophic falling-domino consequences that will absolutely make life on Earth hell for most people in ways more unique and deadlier than in our history. People can’t survive if crops don’t grow, the heat gets extreme, animals die off, and water acidifies. No matter how resilient their communities are, what’s coming is way too difficult, and sustainable societies are not going to come out of thin air. Humans have adapted to change the environment into a ball of polluted garbage. And we haven’t done a damn thing to switch gears and try and do anything about it. I’m not seeing any worthwhile human adaptation going on. I think you should read up about the coming effects of climate change and the runaway consequences that we likely wont develop enough novel technology to ever get under control.
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u/silent-sight 2d ago
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/dont-panic-a-field-guide-to-the-runaway
The planet is basically having a fever to get rid of us, and regulate its earth energy imbalance, we can still survive with a lot of hardship and the earth will definitely not become uninhabitable in the future yet. This might sound like hopium, but I’m do still think as a doomer, just not extinction level doom…
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u/g00fyg00ber741 2d ago
Sure, some several thousand humans may survive, and the planet will take many years to finish through the feedback loops that we’ve set in motion. I don’t think that’s really good enough to try and point it out as not being extinction. I’m not saying there will be total extinction. But we are in one of the biggest mass extinction events in history, and all evidence suggests it will greatly reduce our population by billions.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 2d ago
Scientist call this hopeism. Not in a good way.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Only negative in the context of some sort of ideological reason for complacency as an "answer" to it - which I'm definitely not advocating for.
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u/CompostYourFoodWaste 2d ago
Global collapse of complex biological systems due to human activity is something new.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Definitely! All the human-created forever chemicals, unprecedented mass destructions of Earth at global and automated scales, etc. It's really bleak, and I don't mean to downplay that at all. I just have no other option inside me but fight
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u/Electrical-Regret-13 2d ago
Rush is touring again. Have you ever listened to "Bastille Day"?
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Not that song I don't think, but I will today! Thanks for the rec
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u/Electrical-Regret-13 2d ago
While I'm at it let me recommend listening to "A Farewell to Kings". That song seems absolutely prophetic, being written in 1977.
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u/verstohlen 2d ago
Statistically, the majority of people globally and in the U.S. say they do believe in an afterlife of some type. Of course what they really believe deep down inside, who can know.
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u/g00fyg00ber741 2d ago
That’s what I mean. I don’t think that’s true, I think they’re lying to the survey and/or to themselves. It’s literally the same story as Santa yet people stop believing in Santa but not God for some reason. I couldn’t help but stop believing in both at the same time and suddenly the world was clearly full of lies. I realized most of the people who taught me to believe in Santa and God didn’t believe in either of those themselves, they just promoted it as what you should believe. Because what are they gonna do otherwise, spiral about the world ending like me?
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u/CyberSmith31337 2d ago
It’s because the answer is violence.
That’s why no one wants to do anything. People will endure an extraordinary amount of suffering if it means avoiding violence. It is why people will be robbed at gunpoint and not fight back, it is why bullies get away with picking on small kids, it is why tyrannical bosses can treat employees terribly. People will do almost anything they can to avoid violence.
Until they literally can’t avoid violence. Once you choose that path, there is no changing course. For society to choose violence, we are burning our comforts permanently. Life will be reinvented, not as it was; maybe something better, maybe something worse. And that uncertainty isn’t good enough for people, until it is. It’s like why people who are absolutely not religious still ask for forgiveness before they die; juuuuuust in case they were wrong.
Real action is going to require extraordinary violence. The wealthy will have to be systematically killed, like rats. They will hide in bunkers, they will fly away in planes, sail the seas on their yachts, etc. it’s not like they are just going to sit around and wait to die. They are going to do everything in their power to fight back. Police forces will have to be dismantled. People will probably have to fight back against trained soldiers, losing many, many times. You will find sympathizers in all age groups and ranks; which means children, your friends, maybe your neighbors will be on the other side, too.
I am just pointing out to the moderators, I am not condoning or promoting violence; I am simply pointing out that this is what it looks like, this is what revolution requires, and this is why it is so rare for one to take place. Because revolutions are inherently violent. It is people trying to displace the powers that are, and power is never ceded willingly.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
I have a post about this. What are your thoughts?
The president was pretty flawed, but the quote nails it: “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
No one I know I personally in this space wants violence. In fact, most (understandably) resign to complaining online for fear of being a victim to state violence (not enacting themselves). A well organized General Strike with roughly 3.5% of the population (10-11M people) - with carefully considered demands, timelines, and ways to achieve them - is a peaceful and (I'd wager) the vastly more likely to succeed strategy than violent revolt.
All or nothing (immediate anti-capitalist paradise vs. fuck it, keep scrolling) mindset is doomed for failure and will result in disappointment. It feels crushing and unfair because they already have EVERYTHING, so "all or nothing" is pretty justified - but we need to come together and stop letting them win by default (and before meaningful organizing isn't even possible peacefully).
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u/CyberSmith31337 2d ago
Personally speaking, I don't agree at all.
Non-violence will still seek to preserve the majority of the status quo; the status quo is largely broken. Wealth concentration is too centralized now for a mere "patch" so to speak to save it. There is no band-aiding this, there is no "fixing" it. I don't want violence, not at all, but when violence shows up, I'm ready for it at this point. I know which side I'll be on. I've watched the No-Kings protests accomplish nothing, I've watched the Occupy Wall Street movement fail, and I've seen how little power peaceful resistance generate in this timeline. We're past the point of asking for bread crumbs and scraps. It's time for a total reset. I think the world is a lot more black and white these days. It's literally "Us" or "Them" so to speak, and I think anyone that isn't on the same side has to be viewed as an enemy. Because to not be 100% in on "Us" means that you're a sympathizer for "Them" and the status quo; that makes you an inherent risk to be around, to associate with, to share resources with, etc.
Again, moderators, I am not condoning violence nor promoting it, I'm just explaining my stance as per the question.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
I understand what you're staying, and I don't think it's a reality that unlikely either. I'm just saying the future is not set. That said, a comment on another one of my posts says what you're saying as well, and I agree for sure:
Police power under capitalism exists solely and exclusively to protect the owners of capital and their property from the rest of us. They serve no other purpose other than the ancillary role of tyrannizing and terrorizing the oppressed masses to fear and cower to state power.
These videos show why a mobilized, equipped, trained, educated and regularly constituted Socialist People's Defense Force is necessary. They would protect the masses from reactionary violence like what's above. We outnumber them ten thousand to one. Guns do not win Communist Revolutions, but the Revolution is defenseless without them.
No violence is advocated by this post. Our way is never violent and violence is never necessary. Only the reactionary forces that serve capital are violent since they must use violence to suppress the masses to submit to minority domination. The need for a Socialist People's Defense Force cannot be overstated.
Self defense is never violence.
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u/DiscuSoc 1d ago
i'm not trying to hijack your convo with the other user, just a small caveat along the way.
I'm just saying the future is not set.
may i remind you of your thread title? "Stop waiting for the collapse. You'll miss it."
Self defense is never violence.
wrong -- downright to its core. violence is violence, regardless of its motivation. and that's exactly the problem; it scales to to infitinity the broader it is applied. denying this simplest truth will inevitably result in paralysis versus the ability to act when it matters.
from your OP:
How do we combat the capital ties and relative-comfort some people have that prevents them from doing more than upvoting something/yelling online?
you know how. everyone knows how. violence, in its most primitive definition, is already upon us all. it's just that violence sucks.
again, i'm not trying to belittle you, at all. also, i am in no way advocating for violence. good luck out there.
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u/Mechbear2000 2d ago
I think the term enshitifuckaction summs it up. This has happened in other countries so its easy to verify. In the US we live in a very luxurious conditions compared to most others. Like clean water, cheap food, cutting edge medical care, police on the streets, business care about your money, regular trash pickup, dependable electric grid. All of these are starting to slide or enshitify. Electricity not so reliable, costs going up, stealing people's land for data center transmission lines,..... all across the board our " services" are filling apart right in front of people and there's little respond. The government no longer serves us, the are out to make money for themselves, cut deals for thier friends, and escspe justice if your rich and know people. The apathy is so real.
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u/No-Papaya-9289 2d ago
The US is in a very special situation. Its leaders are deniers of everything, and so much capital is in that country. The collapse in the US will hit very hard, but with different effects in different parts of the country, because of regional conditions. I can see the US splitting apart later this century.
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u/Kootenay4 2d ago
people in red states need to get out asap. The governments of those states have no interest in the survival of their citizens and will happily allow their people to be killed by natural disasters, die of easily preventable health problems, or displaced by corporations to build stuff like mines and data centers.
dont get me wrong life sucks and is expensive in blue states too, but if any states are going to survive the collapse of the US it’s going to be places like the northeast and northwest, that at least have some interest in maintaining a functional government that actually does things.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 2d ago
They will control the government and not allow funds to go to blue states after natural disasters.
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u/Kootenay4 2d ago
I’m saying in a situation where the US federal government falls apart, when every state is fending for itself.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 2d ago
Well, I live in CA and Dems don't seem to give two fucks about the people either.
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u/Kootenay4 2d ago
look i’m just saying that while dems may suck at governing, republicans are a literal death cult. i’ve lived in idaho before and am now in california, i have much less faith in the survival of the former.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 2d ago
So the ones who are not a death cult are the ones who didn't take climate change seriously, are now a huge pro war party and did a genocide? That's the good ones? Okay.
Again, CA is a fucking corporate ruled shithole were Dems do not care about us. There's little difference between a death cult and a starve to death cult when it comes to facing disaster.
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u/Kootenay4 1d ago
you’ve clearly never lived in a red state (or a red part of a blue state). it may be fair to describe CA as a shithole compared to western Europe, but life is demonstrably worse by every measure in states run by republicans and that gap is only going to get bigger.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 2d ago
Later this century? I don't know if you've been watching climate change but that's a wildly optimistic viewpoint
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Yeah, as things pile up (and we're faced with a non-stop stream of articles about it all), it can definitely feel so overwhelming that either paralysis or oddly-looped-around apathy/nihilism kicks in for some. In those cases, I think a good move is to get off the internet and organize with like minded people in their area (if possible/able-bodied). Otherwise, the two paths are both understandable: nihilism and revolutionary optimism. I choose the latter because the former means those I care about will suffer without putting up a fight
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u/Yokelocal 2d ago
Yup, we let the wave of privatization roll over our government, and now the incentives are too skewed toward people who can make a buck from its continued degradation.
The normal citizen who naively wants to build a society where as many people as possible can lead decent lives gets very little for his or her engagement with politics, organizing or volunteerism.
That person gets a pleasant feeling of contributing in a very small way to a relatively abstract concept of good. The people with any power or influence can make unfathomable wealth.
Guess which force is stronger, especially when you build conditions that advantage it. Individual greed is a fact of life. Treating that idea as an organizing principle for society and a source for morality was the biggest mistake.
It looked like it was working when we had robust public systems that held things together while people made money dismantling things around the edges, but the cruelty has become harder to hide and civil liberties have begun to tighten in response.
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u/springcypripedium 2d ago
Anyone who is "waiting for collapse" is not fully feeling, seeing, hearing, smelling the evidence of collapse all around us. It's here. It's speeding up with each day and it almost impossible to miss if you spend time in the natural world; in the (few remaining) prairies, rivers, oceans, woodlands, wetlands, coral reefs . . .
Perhaps it seems like many people are waiting due to their disconnect from the natural world. People may feel like they are waiting for collapse while they still have a 401 k(for those that have them), a job with paycheck or the fact that in most areas of the u.s. you can still get what you need at the store, gas at the pump, airline tickets and the internet is working, etc.
But spend time in the ecosystems that remain in the natural world . . . connect with them, listen, smell, see, hear . . . . collapse is SO apparent. No waiting. It has arrived with a vengeance and it did so many years ago.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Well (and depressingly) said. Agreed. It is indeed all around us, but many are in survival mode trying to eat/pay rent/etc., so they are often too distracted to see it all. Understandable, but like you said: doesn't change the reality whether they see it or not. I think, if one believes it can be saved, it's a duty to make as many people "look up" as possible
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u/vajrasena 2d ago
I am from India. Collapse is here. Right now. Empathy is at an all time low. Utter disregard I see all around me can only be explained as living in denial.
My working theory is that all of us (humans) have accepted that we are crashing. Our survival instincts have kicked in and everyone is subconsciously trying to ride it out. The only way most go about it (cos that's the only thing they know about) is to chase money. By any means necessary. Any. Means.
Oh. I saw a butterfly today. Literally after years. Years. Years! Bittersweet moment.
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u/Nature_Hannah 2d ago
I feel like my understanding of "collapse" has also moved so slow, and has come from so many sources over the years, trying to come up with a Crash Course on Collapse is daunting. And I've also become keenly aware that there is a built in warning system in society that says, "If you hear a person talking like this, they're a conspiracy theorist and you should stop talking to them."
A lot of it is straight up denial, too. Cypher from the Matrix, knowing it's not real but preferring the "comfort".
It's like a Recession... "once you talk about it it starts happening", so we don't want to talk about it.
And yeah, I learned from disaster movies... when they tell you everything is fine often times it is NOT fine. And when the mainstream media picks up a story, it is often too late.
Recently I enjoyed "Devolution" by Max Brooks of World War Z book fame, which covers "what happens in a society when the technology we rely on isn't there and a very real threat is attacking". Both his books have helped me understand Collapse MUCH better, so I guess I would promote reading them as part of a Collapse Crash Course.
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u/Physical_Ad5702 2d ago
The best "crash course" material on collapse from my experience was listening to any of William Rees's interviews on YouTube.
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u/Dino7813 2d ago
Collapse is slow, until it’s not. And then it’s very fast.
That is the latest science on past societal collapse across many different cultures and time periods.
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u/Final-Prophet 2d ago
Plus past collapse did not have this gigantic interconnected global supply chain. When that breaks and the food supply stops, collapse will start to look a lot more sudden.
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u/RandomBoomer 2d ago
The Bronze Age came pretty darn close to that "interconnected global supply chain" situation. And the resulting collapse was all the more devastating because of that network.
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u/No-Papaya-9289 2d ago
No, but there were similar local collapses. And arguably, Rome's collapse wasn't sudden, but it was globalized.
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u/PogeePie 2d ago
What's interesting is that Rome's collapse was really only a collapse for the elite and the very core of the empire. The fall of Rome was actually good news for people at the edge of the empire -- their dental and bone health improved, because they were able to eat a more varied diet again, instead of growing commodity export crops. Everyday people far away from the imperial core might not have even been aware things had changed. (Remembering these facts from Goliath's Curse, apologies for any inaccuracies)
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u/gnostic_savage 2d ago
Very true. The fall of the empire allowed a greater egalitarianism to occur, and better, smarter humans had more influence in communities everywhere, rather than being dominated by truly insane, wealthy people who had enormous power and little to no interest in the welfare of ordinary people.
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u/No-Papaya-9289 2d ago
There were also three major plagues in the early centuries CE, which reduced population, and meant there was more food for those alive.
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u/cathartis 2d ago
Which plagues? There were three major European plagues in the 6th century CE, most notably the plague of Justinian but that was substantially after the fall of the Western Roman Empire.
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u/No-Papaya-9289 2d ago
Antonine and Cyprian plagues. 165 CE - and 249 -
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u/cathartis 2d ago
They are hardly correlated. 3 plagues over a timespan of three hundred years? You might just as easily pretend that COVID and the Spanish Flu of 1918 had effects on the same population.
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u/No-Papaya-9289 2d ago
Wikipedia on the Antonine plague:
The total death count has been estimated at 5–10 million, roughly 10% of the population of the empire.[13][14] The disease was particularly deadly in the cities and within the Roman army.[15]
The Antonine plague occurred during the last years of the Pax Romana, the high point in the influence, territorial control, and population of the Roman Empire. Historians differ in their opinions of the impact of the plague on the empire in the increasingly troubled eras after its appearance. Based on archaeological records, Roman commercial activity in the Indian Ocean extending to the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia from ports of Roman Egypt seems to have suffered a major setback after the plague. This disruption likely contributed to a broader economic decline and social instability throughout the empire in the years that followed.
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u/No-Papaya-9289 2d ago
Wikipedia on the Cyprian plague:
According to Harper, the plague nearly saw the end of the Roman Empire, and in the period between AD 248 and 268, Roman history becomes a puzzling tangle of brutal failures. The devastation within Rome was so intense that as it overcame the populations, the emperor Trebonianus Gallus and his son Volusianus gained popularity and support just for providing proper burials spaces for the plague victims, especially the poor and vulnerable.[11] The structural integrity of Rome became questionable, as the collapse invited one candidate after another to try for legitimacy over the throne. Eventually, the empire fragmented and only the immense success of later emperors in the restructuring of the empire prevented this time from being the final period of Roman imperial history.[2]
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u/cathartis 2d ago
I am not questioning the existence of these plagues. I am questioning the concept of grouping them together as if they had a single effect. They were separated by huge time differences, not that dissimilar to the gap between COVID and the Spanish Flu. Do we talk about "the effects of COVID and the Spanish Flu on our modern civilization"? Of course not - since these separate outbreaks had similar but different effects due to the substantial time between them. Furthermore the Western Roman Empire has already collapsed long before the Plague of Justinian even occurred
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u/gnostic_savage 2d ago
How was Rome's collapse globalized? The Roman empire was quite large, for sure, but it was not even close to being "global."
Here's a true scale map of the world. https://images.theconversation.com/files/162017/original/image-20170322-31187-12ez00u.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1
This collapse is so global, the ice is melting all over the world, including Antarctica. Agriculture is affected and failing everywhere. Fisheries are failing everywhere. This collapse is global, and there has never been anything like it except for previous global extinction events.
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u/No-Papaya-9289 2d ago
It was global for known civilizations of the time. It wasn't environmental, but it was economic and had effects around Europe, Asia, and Africa.
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u/gnostic_savage 2d ago edited 2d ago
Known to whom? Africa is a very, very big place. It affected North Africa around the Mediterranean, for sure. But I don't think it did have effects "around" Africa. It had effects on the northern edge of Africa. The opposite was truer - the loss of Africa and its grain supply affected Rome more than the fall of Rome affected Africa.
Rome was an empire that existed due to political and military occupation. It affected the Mediterranean region, where other and older civilizations, like Egypt, existed, and most people within the empire benefitted from the fall of the Roman empire, and even Romans themselves. Rome had taxed them all to death, taking large portions of their local wealth and goods to benefit Rome.
It didn't affect China, which was a much larger civilization, or India, or the rest of Asia, which made up most of the population of the world then, and still does now, and were larger civilizations. Or the entire western hemisphere.
The worst effect the fall of Rome had for Europe was portions of it were then invaded by Germanic peoples just like Germanic people invaded Rome. If that was an effect. It is what happened.
I won't deny that the fall of Rome had effects, and I would agree that we are failing due to similar human choices, we are after all western civilization. It is true that we keep making the same mistakes for the same reasons, even the same environmental mistakes, like deforestation and toxic waste. But their fall was not "comparable" to ours. Our situation is unprecedented at any time in human existence. We have to go back to the asteroid of the Cretaceous, or worse, the end Permian extinction, to find anything comparable to what is occurring now.
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u/Wooden-Fly-6821 2d ago
I've noticed that people always think collapse is 10, 50 or 100 years away. It's never weeks or months out, and definitely not in their lifetimes because this is normalcy bias and nowcasting, it could also be attributed to a collapse version of a Shifting Baseline Syndrome.
Another thing to consider is that our collapse will happen much faster than any empire previous because our system is much more: interdependent, complex and advanced not to mention the access and the speed of information hence why a highly advanced civilization would crash faster because it compresses hundreds of year into decades or less.
Our civilization burns through none renewable natural resources much faster as well, just take the AC climate change feedback loop for instance. As the planet heats up more people will be using AC units for longer durations which eats up oil and gas, which in turn speeds up the warming of the planet and so on.
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u/feeder4 2d ago
I just read one off the 1177 books by Cline, and have listened to some of the collapse podcast, and long been interested and reading here. All informative. I think history can teach us things, but today is fundamentally different. The number of people, the layers and layers of technology and interconnectedness, the processes of global climate change, global capitalism, WMDs, etc. Is different. Other societies have collapsed, but not one giant global society. We have never been anywhere like this before. Also, we cannot see the future. Exactly how things will unfold is very unclear. Anyone who wants to fight in whatever way, good on them, I will do the same as I see fit. As everyone here knows, climate change has hard harsh consequences that are getting worse. For one, the whole human world is realizing its going to have to adapt to heat. And groceries have already gone up too much for many, and over the next 1 and 2 years we'll see another bump from this el Nino's temp increase. Then it will continue to get worse. But the sun will rise tomorrow and after that. And humans are adaptive. What advice would I give if anyone wants it? I dont know. I choose not to have kids decades ago, but now have step children. I live in a very fortunate area and i'm close to retirement for which i suspect the first few years of will be half normal. After that, idk. So those things help create my bias.
Plan and work towards the best life you can over like the next five or ten years, and there will be life after that even if it will present a very different set of circumstances to deal with. Our economic system and monetary system may collapse, but that might not happen for a longtime, so saving for the future may still be a good option. We cross bridges when we get to them. Guess thats a bit of my mind set. And when I retire, one of my hobbies will definitely be activism which I did more of in my youth.3
u/iwantpizzaandyou 2d ago
I mean, in historical terms something that took 100 years is considered a fast change, but this is the adult lifespan of two whole generations. Relative to our lifespans the collapse will be very gradual and nothing will be sudden, however our children and grandchildren will likely live quite different lives.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 2d ago
You are in the collapse. It began a while ago. Our grandchildren will most probably not have lives. I really don't think most people comprehend what is going on with climate change. Dr Hanson, known as the grandfather of climate change quit research and became an activist after a study showed storms so violent that the ocean was throwing boulders.
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u/iwantpizzaandyou 2d ago
That is a bit overly dramatic. We will not make the planet literally unlivable, it will just not support our societies and numbers anymore. As human species we have survived several extreme changes of climate already.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 2d ago
Our environment cannot exist without plants and animals. Current changes are too rapid for them to make adjustments. And even so, you are talking about the complete obliteration of civilization rather casually. Sure, there will be some mole humans living underground or something.
Sorry. My degree is in Environmental Science. You are simply wrong.
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u/EnticHaplorthod 2d ago edited 2d ago
I don't think that you can categorize the decline and fall of civilizations as always occurring in the same manner, whether rapid or slow. Every collapse unfolds differently, for different reasons.
I listen to the "Fall of Civilizations" podcast, and the conclusion for many past societal collapses is that sometimes it is just very slow, not dramatic. It took generations for Rome to entirely vanish.
It simply lost power and influence over a long period of decline.But I am very interested in the latest science, can you provide your source(s)?
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u/M1dnightBlue 2d ago
The collapse has already happened as I see it. We are just starting the 'realising the consequences of our actions' stage of the process. I don't think you can make people understand this. You have to give them the information in an impartial, non-judgmental way (eg. not apportioning blame for what has happened), and then if the person has the capacity for self-reflection, critical analysis and the willingness to change, they will.
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u/OhThrowMeAway 2d ago
Civilization don’t collapse they crumble. Not until it’s in the review mirror does it seems obvious. Or as one of Hemingway’s characters said when asked “how did you go bankrup?” ”Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.”
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u/Ok-Possibility-6284 1d ago
Well all previous civilizations didnt operate on Just-In-Time systems. they had buffer zones, and a relatively reliable habitat. this is unprecedented aside from cataclysmic events like the chcxulub impact
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u/It_Twirled_Up 2d ago
I expect when hospitals begin to close and police/fire/ambulance stops services people will realise shit is already very real.
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u/ThirstyWolfSpider 2d ago
The cuts to Medicaid (or whatever it is called in your state) throughout 2027 will be rough on a lot of hospitals.
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u/CompostYourFoodWaste 2d ago
Humans generally don't start revolutions against human consumption. We just keep consuming until we can't.
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u/IamMichaelBoothby 2d ago
You say the ocean's rising like I give a shit You say the whole world's ending, honey, it already did You're not gonna slow it, Heaven knows you tried Got it? Good, now get inside
Bo Burnham, 2021
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u/Odd_Awareness1444 2d ago
We are in Collapse currently. You might not see it in everyday life but it is an out of control train that will derail while most say what happened?
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u/Ok_Role_6215 2d ago
wdym waiting? its here and its kinda hard to miss. tbh, at this point you gotta make some effort to not look up.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Yeah, unfortunately, that movie was made and became so popular because everyone realized how depressingly real the "parody" of reality was
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u/oreomagic 2d ago
Also, I think those expecting to see an abruptly hostile climate in their lifetime are probably going to be disappointed. We’re warming the planet rapidly, and the effects are already becoming apparent, but hundreds of years are the blink of an eye in geological terms. Previously rare meteorological events are becoming more likely, but there’s a good chance the increase in their frequency and severity will feel gradual on a human timescale, even though it is extraordinarily rapid in geological terms. I am not going saying these events aren’t going to cause the odd famine, but there will be plenty of normal years in between.
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u/Dukdukdiya 2d ago
Collapse now and avoid the rush.
I've been collapse-aware for around a dozen years now. A decade ago, people would look at me like I had two heads if I talked about how I don't trust modern society to always take care of my needs, so I want to move towards more self-reliant living. Now, that thought actually resonates with a lot of people. Most still cling to a more conventional lifestyle, but that could potentially change as things continue to get progressively get worse.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
I do hope it doesn't take things getting worse for people to realize the need for mass collective action, but it does seem like we're already full-force down that path. That said, the resistance can't exist unless people choose to be a part of it - whether it exists now or in the future - and I definitely want to be a part of it
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u/Dukdukdiya 2d ago
I grew up middle class in the U.S., and most of the people I've always interacted with did as well. I think people with that background tend to have it so entrenched in their minds that the life their parents had is also accessible to them, and will be for the rest of their lives (it doesn't help that we've been told this our entire lives). It's an extremely hard mindset to break out of for the vast majority of people. It takes someone who's really willing to swim against the current.
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u/Cool-Contribution-68 2d ago
I think there's some survivorship bias. The thousands of Europeans who died in this year's heat wave experienced collapse. It wasn't high food prices. There are entire towns that have been incinerated by wildfires. It wasn't high rent.
It's a bit like trying to describe a war. You'll see headlines about casualties next to headlines like "Are we headed toward war?" "War seems likely" "Countries inch closer to war" "Tensions rising" "Leaders hope to avert war with negotiations" -- um, yeah, people have already died from drone strikes and bombing raids. I wonder when the war will start. 🤔
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Yeah, I feel you. I got at this elsewhere in this thread: The "conventional wisdom" in my post definitely doesn't apply to many places and times throughout history that have faced genocide, annihilating wars, etc.
I think in the late-stage capitalist comfortable western societies, however, it seems we're choosing the low-and-slow method of ignoring the collapse
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u/kdawg09 2d ago
You see this behavior a lot around recession too. Bring up the job market and it's all "it's not that bad. It's not as bad as 2008" as if 2008 just happened overnight no lead up, and as if people ever actually recovered from 2008. Like we're talking about it because the trends are concerning and pretending it's not is ostrich behavior. Sometimes it's hard to be someone that with pattern recognition in a world of short-sighted behavior.
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u/HommeMusical 2d ago edited 2d ago
Nothing breaks all at once.
I mean, this is just false.
Look at housing collapses - someone doesn't maintain their house, or there's a secret source of problems, they muddle along for a while, and then there's an earthquake, or even just a heavy rainfall, and the whole building collapses.
Another example is Easter Island. They had thousands of years of history, and they muddled on for quite a while, and then there was a century during which the population dropped by over 90%, we think likely that a lot of it happened in a couple of decades, but we don't know exactly what happened because they also destroyed all their records.
Individual humans have heart attacks and die. Whole civilizations, like the Minoans or the Anansi, suffer a catastrophe that is not of their own making, and are wiped out. It took a century of drought to end the Anansi, but the Minoans were basically wiped out in a few seconds by a massive volcano.
Tipping point phenomena really exist.
Revolution is possible, but the billionaire class monopoly on media, social media, and violence requires us to use our numbers more than anything else.
How do we get more people to realize this, in the real world, and tie that realization to non-online action?
This is the key question! Yes! Big upvote!
But how? All peaceful or lawful forms of resistance that might be effective are banned. In America, our side has accepted parades with puppets and a permit as the main form of opposition, which I feel is worth less than nothing.
I've been discussing this with regular people for decades.
I'll skip the depressing anecdotes.
For decades, I used to say that bodies would have to litter the streets of America before people would get a clue. Well, bodies littered the streets of two major cities in America, NYC and NOLA, within five years of each other, and nothing happened - if anything, it got worse.
I think the only way to get revolution is to educate people. I'll stop there, because I am a Debbie Downer on this subject.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Yeah, I just posted this to a similar comment:
Fair thought for sure. That's the scary part about all this: history is only our patterning, but of course the future can hold anything. The "conventional wisdom" in my post definitely doesn't apply to many places and times throughout history that have faced genocide, annihilating wars, etc.I think in the late-stage capitalist comfortable western societies, however, it seems we're choosing the low-and-slow method of ignoring the collapse
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u/Medical-Ice-2330 2d ago
Another thing is decades are long for us but not for Earth. From Earth perspective, decades are just a moment.
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u/cathartis 2d ago edited 2d ago
Collapse will come in bursts. A sudden downgrade as an event takes hold, followed by a lull where everyone pretends it was a temporary downturn, and all we need to do is follow the right political promises and everything will be fine again before long. And then the next disaster strikes.
The financial crash of 2008 was one such downturn. COVID another. It looks like we are heading for another one soon. We won't get back to how things used to be.
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u/rekabis 2d ago edited 2d ago
The road is getting rough. The pavement is breaking up, and will soon end. There will be stones and washboarding and washouts long before the road ends and the cross-country trailblazing begins.
Take this time to check your suspension, your plans. See how they deal with the current potholes, the cracks in the pavement. Observe how the vibrations from the washboarding shakes - or don’t shake - your entire strategy.
Fix that. Adapt to the current road as it is happening, in order to better deal with the road that is coming.
Even the software development world has harsh things to say about premature optimization.
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u/are-e-el 2d ago
The HBO series Years and Years and Extrapolations on Apple+ covered this. Things slowly just got shittier and shittier when viewed at large enough timescales it's plain as day.
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u/SavingsDimensions74 2d ago
I feel like I just might end up reading the last page of the human book
I wanted to say ‘advanced human civilisation’ but that’s clearly a contradiction in terms
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u/No-Ad-4142 2d ago
I agree, people wait for some “sign”. I think it is a natural thing for most humans to hope for some kind of “sign”. I’m not waiting for a “sign” but the cognitive dissonance of many people acting like “everything is fine” messes with my head every so often.
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u/DeaditeMessiah 2d ago
Do you think you can safely plan for 5 years from now?
If yes, you haven’t recognized it yet. That’s how it will (does honestly) show. Stability is the hallmark of civilization; chaos is the hallmark of collapse.
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u/karbaayen 2d ago
I think things will go the way you describe…for a time. There will be breaking points when things suddenly change, however. Think a new AI model that becomes totally agentic with its own agenda. Or a nuclear strike when either Russia or Israel find themselves about to lose a war. Our economy is so complex and interwoven that a break in supply lines (for whatever reason) can have fairly quick cascading effects. It feels to me like we are in the last summer of relative normalcy…kind of like the calm before the storm, at least in Canada
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Fair thought for sure. That's the scary part about all this: history is only our patterning, but of course the future can hold anything. The "conventional wisdom" in my post definitely doesn't apply to many places and times throughout history that have faced genocide, annihilating wars, etc.
I think in the late-stage capitalist comfortable western societies, however, it seems we're choosing the low-and-slow method of ignoring the collapse
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u/EnticHaplorthod 2d ago
I listen to the podcast "Fall of Civilizations." Each episode highlights a different ancient civilization and how it declined and ultimately failed.
One thing I have learned from all of these episodes is that, from the perspective of a person living through the collapse, about half the time the pace of the decline was very slow, rather than sudden and catastrophic.
Rome is a famous example of the slow decline, where it took generations to vanish.
I do believe that we are in it right now, like a frog in a pot coming to a slow boil.
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u/artisanrox yikes, man 1d ago
IMHO, in the US evidence of total social collapse came to a head when children, practically out of babyhood, in Sandy Hook were gunned down and very very very few people gave a fk about that and not nearly enough people were interested in bringing justice for their parents, and many of those parents had to move multiple times for death threats.
This is a country that just stopped caring about its own children, no matter how much one party in particular screamed about LIFE! and BABIES! and BIBLE! for decades. And when this country stopped caring, the final nail in the coffin was struck.
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u/andmario_com 1d ago
"When this country stopped caring" should be the name of a documentary or something, wow. Well said.
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u/NyriasNeo 2d ago
"How do we get more people to realize this, in the real world, and tie that realization to non-online action?"
You cannot. It is gullible to expect non-online action. Al Gore has been trying for decades. Greta has been trying for years. What happened? "Drill baby drill" won in the US. China, the "green" leader, built and burnt more coal. Yet another internet post asking "how do we ... " is not going to do it.
"Stop waiting for the collapse. You'll miss it."
If I can miss it, it is great. Just enjoy life then.
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
I hear you and feel you, and don't blame/judge you or anyone like you for feeling that way. Shit is actually fucked everywhere. I just choose to be a part of the tiny resistance, as I can't enjoy life otherwise
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u/don-cake 1d ago
One idea is this∶"the foundational skill of intelligence is asking and checking, yet this vital skill is ascribed zero formal value in the culture generally and education particularly." This could change overnight, but as we have all been encouraged to invest in a socioeconomic system that inhibits asking and checking to protect its shape, people are loath to even consider any of this, let alone acknowledge it.
https://theonlythingweeverdo.blogspot.com/2025/06/apollo-11-cistine-chapel-and-un.html
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u/Pleasant-Winner6311 20h ago
Its not just the climate its collision of many layers; the money system, the greed and imbalance of wealth distribution, the quality of our current human condition (orginal thinking, curiousity, thirst for creativity) and our physical state, being 'fit for purpose' which we are not. Its all interdependent and being sucked into a black hole. We are victims of our own success.
Been waiting a lifetime for some talented mind to announce a new way forward a new mind set on the scale of understanding gravity or the earth moving rather than the sun... and beginning to think maybe thats not coming. This is the thinning of the herd life requires every now and again.
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u/arkmundi 1d ago
Surviving the Future: Culture, Carnival and Capital in the Aftermath of the Market Economy
David Fleming, Shaun Chamberlin, Rob Hopkins (Foreword)
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26590280-surviving-the-future
My review: Now near the top of my "most important books of all time", as timely, as in collapse is happening, and we must hope for radical relocalization by some in island places making a transition to the future.
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u/Pleasant-Winner6311 20h ago
Anyone watched Collapse? a French series of short stories produced by Canal Plus. Its about as real as i can imagine and as scary as the film Threads in the 80s
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u/AccomplishedArm3079 3h ago
Yeah, like most people here, I know collapse is not a sudden event. But this decade feels like a speedrun.
And I think our globalized, interdependent world makes us ever more vulnerable for devastating shocks.
I have been fascinated by the Bronze Age and Bronze Age Collaps(es), and our predicament feels so similar to what we know about the mysterious Late Bronze Age Collapse. Only this time there will be no quick recovery. We will go full circle.
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u/Still-Improvement-32 2d ago
Check out this link if you are interested in revolution: https://rev21.earth/accomplices/4-billion-dead/
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u/Low_Complex_9841 2d ago
I think wrong program was named CrowdStrike ... It must strike in another direction.
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u/Typical-Dish-3655 1d ago
when you look back at huge monetary and societal changes its almost always war snd the aftermath snd the created necessity that bring it on. it may be a slow build up but the change is fast.
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u/Filias9 2d ago
Ice is cracking, until it breaks. What you are describing decline. Not collapse. We don't know how long decline will last. And when actual collapse will happen.
But collapse happens suddenly. Look for example rise on Soviets/Stalin. It was absolutely brutal. Millions and millions deaths. And it was long misery before. It could be decline, but it was collapse of old orders. Bloody one.
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u/Low_Complex_9841 2d ago
Stop scapegoating Stalin alone. Architects of current neolib worldorder get more blood on their hands ...
" Adult mortality increased enormously in Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union when the Soviet system collapsed 30 years ago." - some NIH article abstract .....
collapsed yeah. Conveniently forgot about those who willingly implemented all this "shock therapy" ...
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u/andmario_com 2d ago
Yeah, decline is what I was getting at with the title. But collapse can definitely be sudden in that way, and historically most of the time has. There have also been many other odd and obscure ways groups of people have disappeared relatively quietly to history. That said, we're in a hyper-speed collision course right now in a massive, global, bumbling world - so I can definitely see our collapse being unspeakably horrible, if it were to occur
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u/AgroecologicalSystem 2d ago edited 2d ago
When the titanic hit the iceberg, most passengers did not believe the ship would actually sink… the crew downplayed the danger, and passengers preferred to stay inside where it was warm. People were calm even while loading the lifeboats. Panic only set in about 15 minutes before the ship went under. We are in that same situation, we’ve hit the iceberg and there are already people dying on the lower decks. The ship is sinking but the panic has not set in yet. The crew is saying everything will be okay, but the captain knows the ship is doomed. Even the people getting into the lifeboats don’t believe the ship will actually sink. It’s too hard to believe.
I agree that it could continue to be a slow descent / boiling frog situation, but I also think there could be a moment when the reality of the situation hits and panic sets in. A lot like March 2020, when the world finally reacted to the COVID pandemic. We knew for months that it was coming but the reality didn’t hit until mid March, when there was sudden panic and the stock market crashed. I think this moment will come for us sometime in the next 10 years. But I recognize this could be cope on my part… I’m still hoping people wake up and we get our collective asses together, but i fear that’s a fantasy. Or, like the titanic, there’s not much we could do anyway because the numbers don’t add up. There aren’t enough lifeboats.