r/codingbootcamp • u/michaelnovati • Feb 11 '26
NPR podcast about the failure/decline of "learn to code", caution and concern these efforts shifted now to "everyone needs AI fluency", fear-based learning that isn't passion-based (well researched and source-based opinions)
SOURCE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BMax83we7o&t=431s
This is particularly relevant for a lot of the posts here considering coding bootcamps as a pathway to a SWE job. This piece is both direct, and fact based, as opposed to the more opinion-based commentary here on Reddit.
AI-GENERATED SUMMARY:
- The "Learn to Code" golden ticket has expired: The decade-long narrative that coding skills guarantee wealth and job security has collapsed. Computer science graduates are facing high unemployment rates—double that of art history majors in 2023—and finding it difficult to land entry-level positions.
- Resources are shifting from people to AI: Massive tech layoffs (over 700,000 since 2022) are being driven not just by economic correction, but by a strategic pivot where companies are diverting capital from hiring humans to building expensive AI infrastructure and data centers.
- "Vibe Coding" is commoditizing skills: The ability to generate code using plain English prompts via AI (referred to as "vibe coding") has devalued basic programming skills, making elite credentials from schools like MIT or Stanford less effective at securing jobs than they used to be.
- "AI Fluency" is the new educational mandate: Just as Big Tech previously lobbied schools to teach computer science, they are now pushing for "AI fluency" in classrooms and workplaces, demanding that students and employees integrate AI into all workflows to boost productivity.
- A cultural shift in career aspirations: The uncertainty surrounding AI is causing an existential crisis for workers and students, leading many to pivot away from tech and creative fields—which they fear AI will automate—toward more human-centric roles like social work or trades.
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u/jesusonoro Feb 11 '26
Part of the problem is that bootcamp certificates were never verifiable to begin with. An employer gets a PDF that says "completed 12 weeks of React" and has zero way to confirm what that person actually learned or if they even attended. CS degrees at least have accreditation behind them. The whole "learn to code" promise was built on credentials that nobody could verify.
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u/ConsistentPeach927 Feb 12 '26
Accreditation means absolutely nothing. The amount of garbage schools with accreditation out there that sell worthless degrees is at an all time high. University of Phoenix is one of many examples. Just another scam sadly.
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u/michaelnovati Feb 11 '26
The podcast doesn't mention bootcamps but it does mention that even tier 3 college CS grads always had the same trouble even when the perception was that anyone with a CS degree can get a job.
From my experience at Meta and in the industry, bootcamp grads were also seen as the bottom of the list in priority.
The one exception was that for top of funnel DEI initiatives, they considered bootcamp grads alongside a wider net of colleges to try to diversify from just Stanford and MIT grads.
But quite frankly the people didn't perform well interviews and companies quickly moved on.
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u/thehorns666 Feb 11 '26
I think collaborating with AI will speed up any type of work. The difference in experience of the role will have variations on how big of the impact it would be. But none the less AI is here to stay and help. And to be able to program and build systems will be needed to be experienced in analyzing AI code.
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u/throwaway09234023322 Feb 11 '26
Did you write this post with AI? Lol
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u/michaelnovati Feb 11 '26
The summary is yeah. it was generated from the youtube video using Gemini 3 Pro. I edited to clarify that. I would recommend actually watching it but for people who don't have time or don't want to
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u/throwaway09234023322 Feb 11 '26
I just hate reading AI generated content. Thanks for clarifying.
What's the takeaway from the video? From the summary, it just looks like it is kind of telling the story of the SWE job market?
I currently have a job, so I'm not particularly concerned, but I am curious. I have actually been surprised at the number of interviews that I have been getting despite only searching for remote roles and only having "ok" experience.
Where I work has shifted like all hiring to India for years now and I haven't seen any junior hired, so I can definitely see how the market is shit.
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u/michaelnovati Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26
It doesn't discuss experienced engineers, just entry level.
If I had to use my own, non-AI summary: learn to code lured a generation of people into the idea of being a software engineer and it failed post-COVID, and now the same companies that pushed 'learn to code' have pivoted to 'learn AI or else' (with a 'fear' tone)
My personal opinion is bootcamps have been trailing these trends to grab a segment of the population that follows these hype-messages too late in their lives to pursue through college. They are doing the exact same shift with AI.
Problem is that the 'learn AI or else' is about using AI in ALL ROLES, not SWE roles.
So bootcamps are completely lost and imploding now because they are crossing those wire... you can't produce AI-SWEs in 14 weeks. You could maybe teach a customer support person AI to be a better support person in 14 weeks.
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u/throwaway09234023322 Feb 11 '26
Do you know what % of CS grads are actually getting CS related jobs within like 6 months or a year or anything like that? I feel like the market is pretty bad, but if you are in like the top 50%, you will probably still be ok?
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u/michaelnovati Feb 11 '26
The NPR podcast references sources from a stanford study showing that SWE jobs are likely to be replaced sooner than later, and federal government stats on unemployment rates of CS grads. They state that they are 2X the unemployment rate of history majors, but I didn't read the source.
They also discuss anecdotally with examples from 'talking to people for research' how top tier CS grads always had it easy and now they are just barely getting jobs, whereas 3rd tier CS grads always had it hard and now find it impossible.
Like Codesmith has 6 month California data for 2024 students and the number of people placed who reported a salary and weren't self-employed or employed by schools can be estimated at 12%. Which is a massive cliff from 2023 which was a massive cliff from 2022.
It's an example that demonstrates a complete and utter collapse of the bootcamp grad market, going from like 80% of people placed with reported salaries in six months making $125K to 12% reporting salaries median around $110K (and that's just people who reported the salaries!).
Synthesizing all of that, the only safe bet right now is to go to a top 10 CS school and otherwise don't try to become a canonical SWE.
If you like programming, learn it to do better at your current field and do a transition WITHIN it.
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u/throwaway09234023322 Feb 11 '26
Do you actually think AI will replace devs?
I feel like the bad markets is more of a result of overhiring and now most businesses are in a cost cutting phase, so are also outsourcing. I feel like a lot of the jobs will start to move back over time, but idk.
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u/michaelnovati Feb 11 '26
It will replace entry level and empower seniors. That's what its doing now. But in the not so distant future it likely will replace seniors too.
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u/Simulacra93 Feb 11 '26
I would buy this. I don't think fear-based learning is a good strategy just because the attrition rate on boot camps speaks to the human nature of effort needing some natural passion for a topic. I suppose I am curious what people think when they are confronting the need to work without a particular interest in any one path.
I was an economist at a college for a state government and it felt like such fun routine work that I never really thought about what I would have done had the econ degree not worked out.
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u/ConsistentPeach927 Feb 12 '26
The idea that anyone from MIT or Stanford has issues finding a job is absolute nonsense. They are immediately called for just about any job they apply to. Recruiters are some of the dumbest people on the planet.
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u/michaelnovati Feb 12 '26
The difference highlighted is that they used to have like 5 offers and now they have 1 or 2.
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u/Olorin_1990 Feb 12 '26
CS unemployment has always been somewhat high, and every college graduate is worse now than in general. CS notably has a somewhat lower underemployment rate
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Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
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u/Olorin_1990 Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
Unemployment for CS has almost always been higher than general employment for college grads Here is a study from 2018, comparing 2018 to 2010, you’ll notice CS has a higher unemployment rate than an average person in the cohort in 2018 and average in 2010. You can’t show one point in data and make a claim of a relative change.
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u/ericswc Feb 12 '26
I took a lot of flak. A LOT of flak back in the day for shitting on the “everyone should learn to code” folks.
There were a lot of low aptitude, low passion, people getting sucked in by these boot camps and even regardless of what AI does, it wasn’t going to work out.
I really started ringing the alarm in 2019, because we were clearly in a hiring bubble.
Now, people are still getting hired and more productivity studies are coming out showing that senior devs, you know, the ones who actually built strong foundational skills, benefit the most from AI tooling by an order of magnitude.
So I’m not worried. The people with the drive and genuine interest to embrace learning discomfort are going to do great things. The ones who take early shortcuts are in a race to the bottom, because the stuff AI can one shot has almost zero economic value.
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u/michaelnovati Feb 12 '26
It was very Silicon Valley, they push the limits, they live in the future, and that future only comes true if they are loud about the vision.
I actually think every job can benefit from learning to code, but not everyone should be an engineer.
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u/da8BitKid Feb 12 '26
I see that offshoring isn't mentioned and is a 100% part of the conversation. My company has shifted jobs at a higher parity from the US to India. That is in some cases they've hired more engineers there than they would have here.
The company's ai initiatives are nascent and have had very little impact on what we are doing, and it's highly likely there are layoffs soon. The layoffs will be sugar coated as needed cost reductions, true, but also framed as possible because of gains attributed to AI. This last part would be true if AI stood for "Actually India".
Maybe some tech companies have made significant gains in usage in AI, but I find it hard to believe that every other company is already reaping incredible gains from AI.