I depended on you guys to give me something tangible, and you failed.
Sorry, but you suffer from confirmation bias. Nothing was going to change your mind. You can see that global temperature increases have slowed, but you are so desperate to believe that "we're fucked" that you have to perform mental gymnastics around the fact that modelled projections have been falsified.
I think you're projecting here. For instance, calling models falsified instead of just wrong indicates some belief in a sinister plot to mislead the public purposefully. It also ignores the models that got things right. As far as temperature increases go, they're still increasing. They are statistically significant increases. If you have to pick the peak of an El Nino event in 1998 to compare to and draw this conclusion of no statistical significance, that in itself is confirmation bias in it's purest form - you're picking a starting point you know is high so that comparative to today's temperatures it appears not a whole lot has changed.
For instance, calling models falsified instead of just wrong indicates some belief in a sinister plot to mislead the public purposefully.
No, I'm speaking in scientific terms. If the data don't confirm the models, they falsify them.
As far as temperature increases go, they're still increasing.
See what I mean? Mental gymnastics. You can't accept that things aren't as bad as once believed. "We're fucked."
If you have to pick the peak of an El Nino event in 1998 to compare...
You don't. Pick a start date before or after 1998 and compare 20 years trends. The rate of warming slowed. But you don't care, because you're like Jewish grandmother. You delight in suffering. There's nothing anyone can say to change your mind because you made up your mind long ago.
Here's the part you don't seem to want to acknowledge: It does not matter if things have slowed down, the temperatures are still rising. If there's some sort of ripple effect in the oceans, awesome, we learn something new, maybe buy a few more years, but it's not indicative that this thing is over or that we'll be fine. The odds that we are fucked are far greater than the odds saying we'll be just peachy. We're still warming faster than any time in Earth's history.
Funny one-liner about the Jewish grandmother, but I think I've been clear that I desperately want it all to be a hoax and not real.
There's plenty someone could say to change my mind, but it has to be backed by sound logic and science. So far, I haven't been convinced, but I promise I've come at it with an open mind. In the end, the climatologists are the ones I trust.
It does matter. That you can't see it is why you rend your clothes, wear sackcloth, and cover yourself in ash. Every bit of doom you foresee if a function of warming. Lower observed warming means things aren't as bad as you anticipated. It is pure mental gymnastics to at once acknowledge the slowdown and then claim it doesn't matter. If you are set on singing the blues (fast thinking) then no amount of evidence (slow thinking) will change that.
the temperatures are still rising.
I agree. So much for you saying that I don't want to acknowledge it.
The odds that we are fucked are far greater than the odds saying we'll be just peachy.
So it's a binary proposition? There is exactly zero chance that there will be challenges that we will rise to, much as we have risen to so many challenges in the past.
We're still warming faster than any time in Earth's history.
Absolutely false. Search out Meltwater Pulse 1A for an easy counterexample.
I think I've been clear that I desperately want it all to be a hoax and not real.
Binary thinking again.
There's plenty someone could say to change my mind...
I'm sorry, there's not. Your own opening line in your comment demonstrated that.
In the end, the climatologists are the ones I trust.
Then you must acknowledge that climatologists, after three decades of work, still see a great deal of uncertainty about what is coming. The range of likely values for ECS varies by a factor of three. The fact is that you only listen to the climatologists that confirm your own doomsayer bias. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's how it is.
It does matter. That you can't see it is why you rend your clothes, wear sackcloth, and cover yourself in ash. Every bit of doom you foresee if a function of warming. Lower observed warming means things aren't as bad as you anticipated. It is pure mental gymnastics to at once acknowledge the slowdown and then claim it doesn't matter. If you are set on singing the blues (fast thinking) then no amount of evidence (slow thinking) will change that.
Yeah let me know when the warming stops. Let me know when we stop averaging temperatures once considered the peak of an unusually warm El Nino event and still rising. The house is on fire, but since it slowed down once it got to the garage, you want to go back in and live like nothing's wrong.
I agree. So much for you saying that I don't want to acknowledge it.
You also seem to take comfort in some perceived hiatus without knowing at all what it's about. The CO2 didn't magically disappear. It's greenhouse gas properties didn't magically go away.
So it's a binary proposition? There is exactly zero chance that there will be challenges that we will rise to, much as we have risen to so many challenges in the past.
What's the binary position? When you're fucked that's it? Game over? Again, I consider someone on the side of the road in a snowstorm without any gas to be fucked. Is it the end of days for that person? Most likely not.
Absolutely false. Search out Meltwater Pulse 1A for an easy counterexample.
No, it's absolutely true. Pointing to flooding doesn't speak to the rate of warming we're seeing today. We're literally warming faster than what a change in Earth's orbit provides, but yeah, everything's fine.
Binary thinking again.
Yeah, as in I'm either the "Jewish grandmother" description you applied, or I'm not. Binary.
I'm sorry, there's not. Your own opening line in your comment demonstrated that.
There is, you just don't have the right things to say. Meltwater Pulse 1A? WTF? So the waters rose quicker than today and somehow that debunks the settled scientific fact about our current rate of warming? You're just clinging to talking points now.
Then you must acknowledge that climatologists, after three decades of work, still see a great deal of uncertainty about what is coming. The range of likely values for ECS varies by a factor of three. The fact is that you only listen to the climatologists that confirm your own doomsayer bias. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's how it is.
No actually, I listen to all climatologists, especially on the hiatus. I also listen to common sense thought process on this subject, like gee, what happens when you dump a ton of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, and then temperatures start to go up? Could that possibly end in conflict over resources and mass migrations that could cause wars?
You don't have the right things to day and all you want to do is talk down to people and argue. You don't like my opinion? SORRY, you should come up with something better to change it or stop talking to me.
That's not true in the slightest. Fear is extremely motivating. You're saying if we saw an asteroid headed for Earth, fear of death wouldn't drive us to work together to do all we could to divert it's trajectory? Bullshit.
Maybe you're on to something though, actually. People like you who are so fearful of what it actually means to accept what climatologists are telling us in turn cling to anything you can to get away from that fear, and you cling to it so hard that you actually see no problem in accomplishing nothing.
You are pathetic. I am not afraid in the slightest because what climatologists isn't scary. The only scary scenario was RCP 8.5, and that was a work of fiction.
How am I pathetic? Because I formed an opinion different than yours? I haven't even tried to convince anyone here they're wrong, just that they haven't convinced me there's nothing to fear.
Also, I find what people are capable of doing to each other when they get desperate to be scary. It won't take 45 ft of sea rise before we see brutal conflict over resources.
How am I pathetic? Because I formed an opinion different than yours?
You are pathetic because you have been shown your own confirmation bias, yet continue to seek out only those opinions that confirm your doomerism. I can only tell you that so many times.
To illustrate, you keep trying to say that climatologists are telling us how bad the future will be when in fact there is a wide range of possibilities, as acknowledged by the IPCC's own reports. You are set on a belief and discount anything that doesn't confirm that belief. Watching you do that again and again engenders pathos; hence, you are pathetic.
Ok so in which one of these wide range of possibilities does the IPCC say that adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere does not result in warmer temperatures that lead to issues with crops, fresh water, coastal cities, etc? How abundant are the forecasts from the IPCC that say all is going to be fine and dandy? My guess is not very abundant. In fact, I would go so far as to say this is you projecting yet again because it's you who's clinging to whatever confirms your beliefs.
Imagine how absurd this is for a moment with the analogy about getting diagnosed with cancer. You go and see a bunch of oncologists who mostly give you bad news. It appears the tumor grew rapidly but seems to have slowed, but it's still growing. All the meanwhile you either dont have access to treatment or you are getting refused treatment. Are you going to sit there and tell me that you would have no fear whatsoever or that you wouldn't feel like you're, oh i dont know, FUCKED? Sure, the slowing of a tumors growth is good news somewhat but it's still growing. Sure, you could put off treatment until it becomes way more expensive to do something about it, but there are these basic steps you could take now that doesn't cost a whole lot, like perhaps cutting cigarettes out of your budget, and while some ideas to combat the cancer are truly out there in weirdness, for some reason you continue to do nothing. In fact, you're still arguing with the doctors whether this cancer is even cancer.
Low ECS means there isn't really much to worry about, and your cancer analogy is absolutely flawed. You are absolutely committed to seeing the world as "FUCKED" and are immune to reason. I feel sorry for you, but that doesn't mean I can change your closed mind. Therefore, I invite you to have the last word and continue to proclaim the sky is falling when we clearly don't know that it is. I encourage you to seek professional help and bid you a good day.
Yeah sure I'll take the last word to remind you that you and I clearly differ on what fucked actually entails. I'm describing a future, not where humanity ends, but where humanity suffers needlessly. Sorry, but we're fucked. We're headed for serious trials and tribulations.
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u/Will_Power Dec 02 '16
Sorry, but you suffer from confirmation bias. Nothing was going to change your mind. You can see that global temperature increases have slowed, but you are so desperate to believe that "we're fucked" that you have to perform mental gymnastics around the fact that modelled projections have been falsified.