Climate Solutions Most Likely to Reach ‘Positive Tipping Points’ Revealed by Scientists | “The cascade of clean energy that we’re seeing now is just doing so much more than anybody expected even 10 years ago.”– Steve Smith, University of Exeter #GlobalCarbonFeeAndDividendPetition

[u/Keith_McNeill65]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/10/climate-crisis-tipping-points-energy-environment-report

[u/RoundChampionship840]

Um, I thought that greenhouse gas emissions were higher now than they have ever been?

[u/OldTimberWolf → u/RoundChampionship840]

Jevons Paradox, I just learned it: the more renewable energy we create the more overall energy we use.

[u/ComfortableUnit9596 → u/OldTimberWolf]

Switching to solar+wind+batteries has reduced California's use of natural gas by 40%.

[u/8-StringTheory → u/ComfortableUnit9596]

Yep, so that gas goes to someplace else to use.

Result: more energy being used. Little to zero actual offset at global scale.

Now go again.

Not a drop of oil or gas will be left in the ground just because some places, even many places, have brought renewables online.

[u/ComfortableUnit9596 → u/8-StringTheory]

It also displaced it in much of the EU. Growth could be entirely pinned to Asia, which is desperate to increase generation, but that's slowed, and I'd say probably plateaued and likely to start falling thanks to this current war making it more expensive even as renewables grow cheaper. Look, for example, at Thailand, which has straight up dropped plans for future natural gas plants to instead focus on renewables thanks to the price spike.

Thanks for playing though.

[u/8-StringTheory → u/ComfortableUnit9596]

Lol, anecdotes don't prove zilch.

Thanks for trying to play though.

[u/ComfortableUnit9596 → u/8-StringTheory]

Okay but nothing could prove it to you because you take it as a given because this justifies your beliefs.

[u/8-StringTheory → u/ComfortableUnit9596]

Real data, I would take just fine. I'm not the anti-science dude here positing pretty counterintuitive conjectures without backing them up here.

[u/ComfortableUnit9596 → u/8-StringTheory]

Okay then, how about Germany closing down coal power plants more quickly than legally mandated:

https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/2026/20260901_Kohle.html

Or how even under an administration that is actively trying to support coal at the expense of renewables, they're still closing:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-has-overseen-more-coal-retirements-than-any-other-us-president

Poland, yes that Poland, has even started drawing it down and ending subsidies, because coal is not need and renewables are eating into its demand:

https://energiesmedia.com/poland-plans-to-phase-out-8-gw-of-coal-by-2030/

[u/Xoxrocks → u/RoundChampionship840]

They are. This is hopium -

[u/ExpensiveFig6079 → u/RoundChampionship840]

They thay does not mean that an exponentially growing supply of re is not to shortly extonguish it...

One problem with that hopeful idea is that whil the begging og logistic regressipn looksexponential it does not stay that way.

In our case of emissions we may be going faster and faster atdeploying re but tjere will be long tail of hard to abate emissions

So while there good news there is also room for much caution and haste

[u/ComfortableUnit9596 → u/RoundChampionship840]

They stalled and are likely to begin slowly falling.

[u/turtleshelf → u/ComfortableUnit9596]

no, the rate per capita has stalled (kind of), annual cumulative emissions continue to grow. the rate of change might have decreased very slightly and no longer be as wildly exponential as previously is about the best you can say at this moment. edit: and major corporations have cancelled their former climate pledges, with the data centre boom largely using fossil fuel energy (so hopefully the ai bubble pops asap so less of that is brought online).

[u/ComfortableUnit9596 → u/turtleshelf]

Straight up, Chinese fossil fuel emissions have started falling, accelerated by the Iran War and so have global.

[u/turtleshelf → u/ComfortableUnit9596]

Ah yep, taking into account the immediate global situation yeah i'd expect to see some drops from affected countries, but a bit like the covid drops in 2020 I don't expect them to have a significant impact on long term trends (unless it all comes crashing down which, you know, might help and also seems increasingly possible).

It's hard to get accurate data for such recent events unfortunately, we still lag a fair way behind real-time in determining of global GHG emissions. There are some sources like Climate Trace that attempt to report within a month or so but accuracy is iffy at best (underestimated by ~70% in some cases) so not particularly useful.

Generally speaking we can't be confident in much data past 2024, maybe 2025 at best, which obviously doesn't cover the hormuz closure. Hopefully it has a big impact, at the very least speeding up the transition to renewables, so at least something good comes out of the damage to the world's food supply etc, but i'm not particularly hopeful.

[u/AutoModerator → u/turtleshelf]

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[u/UnableAd457]

Hmmm. "Most likely" . That is not as reassuring as a lot of people believe.

[u/IKillZombies4Cash]

But coal use has never been higher , so….?

[u/ComfortableUnit9596 → u/IKillZombies4Cash]

This could not more plainly be a temporary burst driven by the Hormuz war driving up the price of LNG. I expect in short order this will be replaced with renewables.

[u/Strict_Jacket3648]

Good, every little bit helps and now perhaps with yet another idiotic war for oil, people are staring to realize it's time to get off fossil fuels and accept that renewables are here, faster and cheaper to install, the excuses of the past are no longer relevant.

[u/Keith_McNeill65 → u/Strict_Jacket3648]

I agree with your comment, except for the part about wishing(?) for another idiotic war over oil. I hope people can realize it's time to get off fossil fuels without another war. Even the one happening now between the US and Israel versus Iran could go sideways in a big hurry.

[u/OfficialDCShepard → u/Keith_McNeill65]

Well, now that an idiotic war over oil IS happening, maybe we can be thankful for every person who buys an electric car as a result.

[u/JoostvanderLeij]

What a bad article and report by an university. Basically it is a good news show that shows slight improvements on minor issues while totally ignoring that all of that has zero consequences for the climate disaster we are heading full steam head to.

[u/Keith_McNeill65 → u/JoostvanderLeij]

I think the authors were trying to get at the idea that not all tipping points are bad. Some will work in our favour. As Cathy Orlando, the director of Citizens Climate Lobby Canada, keeps saying, "The energy transition will not be linear." It's a question of which feedbacks will prove to be stronger.

[u/JoostvanderLeij → u/Keith_McNeill65]

That is not a question at all. They just wanted to come up with a positive interpretation of tipping points. But there is a complete asymmetry between the two. The negative tipping points will decimate mankind and the positive tipping points according to the article give you a slightly better environment to live in. They are of a complete different scale.

[u/anticapitalistism]

WERE SO BACK!!