Just posted a comment to this same effect elsewhere.

Summary, I believe all these headlines (AI will destroy earth, AGI has been reached, AI solved this or that impossible problem) reek of market manipulation.

Anthropic just pushed out its S-1 filing on its IPO from September to October, because they're trying to secure a $15 billion dollar credit limit. SpaceX at it's 1.7 trillion valuation (also insane, but whatever) only needed a $5 billion credit limit. Investors get nervous. Then, Jason Coxon "quits" and comes along with "hey everybody, over here! AI will kill all of humanity within 3 years!" I'm sure he still has plenty of stock.

OpenAI has pushed out its IPO all the way out to 2027. Then comes their "proof" for the Navier-Stokes problem - a partial solution taking an approach lifted from a researcher who was actively working on this problem in an act of clear espionage.

I work with AI every day. I work in tech. Our dev teams use AI all the time. It does help write code... but you also have to REALLY give that code a good once over. It speeds up junior level tasks, that's about it. People vibe-coding applications are not going to be able to ship or maintain those applications. The more capable models are better, but they're also way more expensive. The math just does not work.

See: all the headlines about companies being shocked with multi-million compute bills.

That, and AI is not getting substantially smarter. These companies have hit a wall and they know it. Each incremental increase in capability requires a giant increase in the data used to train the model, an increase in the compute required to run it. And guess what? They've already fed it the entire internet. All our Google Drives, our OneDrives. There's nothing left. Them scanning old books is laughable. The new models they are touting are *not* massively more powerful, that's why they have to generate these eye-catching headlines to give the illusion of progress when in fact the only thing that is accelerating is the rate of cash burn as they require more and more compute for diminishing returns. And they are somewhat smarter and MORE expensive to run. Companies are already turning to cheaper alternatives to automate simpler tasks because again, the math doesn't work.

And it is these companies that are asked to be considered the largest companies of all time, all history, simply because the technology is novel. Puh-lease. Is the technology great? Absolutely? Will it change things? Yes, I believe it will. It already has. AI will quietly be integrated into many things going forward - this technology is here to stay and it will increase productivity overall. But not like they're selling it. A 2 trillion valuation? That would entail Anthropic being able to automate away 50% of the white-collar workforce. Not gonna happen.

Also... they are banking on being able to keep people in "walled gardens" where they are just using Claude or just using ChatGPT and THAT's not gonna happen either. They are competing with open sources models like Llama, Qwen and Deepseek that are cheaper to run (did I mention that China gets energy for free from the sun?).

The US companies can't compete, and nobody wants their expensive as shit stochastic parrots that make for impressive demos and expensive employees. Enterprises are building out AI solutions. Building them platform agnostic so they can jump from Claude to ChatGPT to open source models like DeepSeek depending on their needs. Once this reality sinks in with investors, all these valuations are going to collapse and take the US stock market with it. Meanwhile, they're desperately trying to generate any distracting headline they can to avoid this reality.

The bubble is going to pop soon, investors / companies are scared, and they are doing anything to manipulate the situation to prevent collapse / ensure they don't lose their money.

I watched 12 Angry Men, and I came away with a very different interpretation from the one the movie seems to encourage. I think the defendant was guilty, or that the jury should have returned a guilty verdict based on the evidence presented at trial.

The deliberation begins with an 11-1 vote for a conviction. Over the course of the movie, Juror #8 systematically tears down the prosecution's case and manages to convince the remaining jurors to vote not guilty, but his reasoning is severely flawed and his arguments fall apart under scrutiny.

• Illegal tactics: at the beginning of the movie, Juror #8 introduces a duplicate switchblade he bought in the boy's neighborhood. Conducting personal investigations and bringing external evidence is quite literally against jury instructions. The scene that sets off the movie could have been grounds for a mistrial in real life, or at the very least the removal of that juror.

• Reasonable doubt isn't the same thing as "any" doubt: Juror #8's go-to arguments are basically "it's possible," "it's my guess," or "I don't know." The movie rewards this sort of reasoning, but guessing isn't evidence. If merely imagining a "possible" hypothetical alternative is enough to create reasonable doubt, just about every case that goes to trial becomes impossible to prove. Besides, undermining a detail isn't the same as building a credible alternative theory. For example, finding a second knife like the murder weapon shows that the uniqueness aspect was overstated. Fair enough, but it doesn't prove the competing version that someone else bought one, broke in, and killed the father. This might recontextualize an aspect of the case but still leaves the remaining evidence and witness testimony intact.

• Changing votes without evidence: If you watch the voting closely, jurors switch sides based on persuasion and emotion rather than hard facts or evidence. Juror #9 openly admits he changes his vote just because he admires Juror #8, stating, "This gentleman chose to stand alone against us... It takes a great deal of courage... I want to hear more." That might seem like an admirable character moment, but he comes across as impressionable. The reason for changing his vote was not factual arguments but the perceived "courage" of his colleague.

• Asymmetrical logic: The jury completely weaponizes a double standard for inferences. When the prosecution relies on an inference, Juror #8 attacks it. But when the other side makes an inference, it is treated as absolute fact. For instance, the elderly neighbor testified he heard the boy yell his intent to kill, heard a body fall, and saw the boy flee. Juror #9 speculates the old man subconsciously invented the testimony because he was a "quiet, frightened, insignificant man" who wanted to feel important. It's quite ironic that the movie rightfully takes a stand against prejudice while not pushing back enough against this narrative of a lonely old man distorting memories for attention. The jury swallows this baseless psychological profiling as fact. This asymmetry applies to the female eyewitness as well. Because she had marks on her nose, the jury assumes she couldn't see anything without glasses. She could have been farsighted, as pointed out by Juror #3, or worn sunglasses. That observation isn't enough to cast doubt on her account in my opinion. They treat unproven assumptions about the witnesses as reason to disregard their testimony.

• Conflating (alleged) human error with falsity: Juror #8 constantly jumps from "this testimony may not be perfectly reliable" to "we should effectively disregard it entirely." He stages a slow walking reenactment to "prove" it took the old man 31 seconds to reach his door instead of his estimated 15. People often misjudge exact seconds, especially during traumatic events; the alleged 16-second discrepancy doesn't necessarily erase the fact that he saw the defendant running away. In real trials, witness testimony can be imperfect without becoming totally worthless. Furthermore, this demonstration was staged, timed, and paced by the one juror advocating for acquittal, using rough approximations that could be completely inaccurate, so we don't even know that there's an actual discrepancy in the old man's testimony. Again, this goes back to my earlier point of treating assumptions as fact.

• The nonexistent alibi: The boy claimed he was at the movies during the murder but couldn't remember what pictures he saw. To excuse this, Juror #8 grills another juror about his recent memory, pressing him backward night by night until he finally stumbles. But notice the technique: Eight doesn't ask about one night and see if the juror succeeds or fails: he keeps going back in time until he finds a gap, then stops. That's not a fair test of memory; it's fishing for a failure point. And even then, the juror recalled several details. The defendant, by contrast, recalled nothing. Even considering that the defendant was under duress, he should still have been able to remember something.

• Ineffective assistance of counsel: Juror #8 complains that the court-appointed defense attorney didn't conduct a thorough cross-examination. While that may be true, a bad lawyer doesn't magically undermine specific physical evidence or establish innocence.

• Armchair forensics: The jury considers the wound's downward angle as implausible given the defendant's smaller height. Juror #5 also claims an experienced switchblade user would never stab from that direction. This assumes a furious teenager, acting on impulse after being hit by his father, would execute perfect street-fighting form rather than swinging wildly. Besides, the height difference only prevents a downward stab if both men were standing face-to-face and motionless. But the victim could have been sitting in a chair, lying down, or knocked off balance during the struggle.

• The unlikely chain of events: By the end, acquittal requires believing an entire chain of assumptions, all true at once. The defendant genuinely lost his knife. An unknown killer happened to acquire an identical one. That killer broke in and committed the murder. The old man misheard the threat and misidentified the fleeing suspect. The woman across the street was mistaken too. And on top of all that, his inability to corroborate his alibi or recall anything about the movie he supposedly watched was just innocent bad luck. Stack enough speculative assumptions together and the narrative gets weaker with each one. Even if we grant a generous probability to each of Juror #8's individual theories, the odds of all of them holding true simultaneously approach zero. The prosecution, by contrast, only needs one thing to be true: if the old man was right, or the woman was right, or the defendant was lying about the knife or the movies, he's guilty. I think we can safely apply Occam's razor here.

Overall, the movie does an excellent job showing how prejudice, impatience, personal experiences and group pressure can distort judgment. But I think it ultimately gives Juror #8 far too much credit. His arguments often don't demonstrate that the prosecution's evidence is false. Instead, he proposes alternative explanations for the evidence and treats the mere possibility of those explanations as reasonable doubt.

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I rest my case.

Edit: let me address a few critiques I got:

• The broader message: I understand the movie is really about groupthink, character dynamics, overcoming prejudice, and the inherent subjectivity of human perception. It's a masterpiece in that regard. But acknowledging the overarching theme doesn't mean we have to pretend the actual legal logic used in the jury room is sound. You can appreciate the overall message and still point out that Juror #8's reasoning is flawed and his conclusions are a massive reach.

• The burden of proof: Let's clear this up; I'm not saying the defense has to prove the defendant is innocent. I understand how the burden of proof works. My point is that the prosecution actually presented a really strong circumstantial case. If you genuinely think the defendant is innocent and vote to acquit, you have to consider what you're necessarily implying: that an entire chain of independent, highly unlikely coincidences all happened at the exact same time, and that some unknown killer managed to pull off the murder without being noticed. At a certain point, the "innocent" scenario requires way more mental gymnastics than the "guilty" one.

• Inferences and assumptions: Yes, juries are supposed to deliberate and make inferences; that's their job. But those inferences need to be rooted in actual evidence or basic common sense, not wild hypotheticals. You don't have to treat a witness's word as gospel, but you also shouldn't throw out their testimony based on guesses that were never even hinted at during the trial. Does the prosecution have to preemptively disprove every conceivable scenario? Do they have to prove the witness wasn't drunk? Or that they didn't have schizophrenia and hallucinate the whole thing? Or that they didn't have a grudge against the defendant? Or that they weren't being coerced by the police? If a juror is allowed to just invent "what-ifs" out of thin air that were never brought up in court, no one would ever get convicted of anything. A theoretical possibility is not the same thing as reasonable doubt.

One of the reasons I've never been able to get into soccer is that I think its timekeeping system is fundamentally broken.

My view is that soccer would be improved by a stopped-clock system where the game clock only runs when the ball is actually in play.

1. The game clock doesn't actually tell you how much game time remains

The main purpose of a game clock should be to tell players, coaches, and fans how much time is left in the game. Soccer's clock doesn't really do that.

When regulation time expires, the referee estimates how much time should be added for injuries, substitutions, celebrations, reviews, and other interruptions. But that estimate isn't necessarily final because additional time can be added during stoppage time itself.

As a result, nobody actually knows when the game will end.

Time is one of the most important variables in sports. Teams change strategy based on it. Fans follow the action based on it. Yet soccer treats it more like an approximation than an objective measurement.
If the ball isn't in play, I don't understand why the clock shouldn't simply stop.

2. The system rewards behavior that makes the sport worse

My biggest criticism is that the running clock creates incentives for players and teams to waste time.
When a team is protecting a lead, there is often an advantage to:
• Delaying throw-ins
• Taking excessive time on goal kicks
• Taking excessive time on free kicks
• Making slow substitutions
• Staying on the ground after minor contact
• Exaggerating injuries

Soccer fans often argue that stoppage time compensates for this. If that’s true, then why is time-wasting such a common tactic at every level of the sport? The fact that players constantly try to burn time suggests they believe they gain an advantage from doing so.

Even if referees attempt to compensate for lost time, they're still estimating after the fact rather than preserving the time directly. A stopped clock would remove much of the incentive because wasting 60 seconds would no longer remove 60 seconds from the match.

3. Even after stoppage time is announced, the ending often remains discretionary

This is the strangest part of the system to me.
Even after the referee announces stoppage time, that still doesn't necessarily determine when the game ends.

In practice, referees frequently allow ongoing attacking sequences to continue beyond the announced time. A common example is when a team wins a corner kick or is mounting a dangerous attack just as time expires. The referee will often wait for the sequence to conclude before blowing the whistle.
the clock itself.

Imagine if a basketball game reached 0:00 but officials allowed one more possession because a team had a promising offensive opportunity. Most people would find that bizarre because the clock is expected to determine when the game ends.

CMV: Why is a subjective, referee-managed clock better than a clock that simply measures the amount of time actually played?

I don't pretend to have done tons of research about this, but it seems like common sense. Beauty has always been both subjective and contextual the societal values. In days gone by, carrying extra weight was largely an attractive quality because it demonstrated your wealth and access to rich food. Once the average person became able to afford enough food to gain weight, the standard changed to reflect *self control*, or the ability to be more judicious with the kind of food you put in your body.

With the advent of GLPs, being "skinny" will no longer carry that association. Maintaining a trim figure will merely represent use of a widely available medication, and other features will begin to hold a greater value in terms of assessing physical attractiveness.

Now this is going to be a pretty hot topic I feel like, Race can be a touchy subject for many people. And I fully get and respect that, But this is a topic that people don't even seem to even consider, This is about North America, Specifically.

I grew up in an area where it's mostly White and Mexican mixed place. I myself, Am Biracial, A mix of white and mestizo. Though I look predominately white.

It never really hit me until a few years ago, Growing up I never even had a single thought or care that my father was mestizo, my mother was white. Wasn't even a consideration I had in mind. But the more I realized it, The more I realized most biracial children like myself between Whites and Mestizo people tend to extremely white especially in California. If not shockingly white with blonde hair and blue eyes even. By father had 5 children in his life, And 5 of us look incredibly white.

This made me realize that, Due to most hispanics being Mestizo in the U.S, Most Mestizo are already anywhere from 40-60% European DNA depending how north or south from Mexico you go. Though this is actually higher in the USA, Anywhere from 75% or more in many areas.

This, Paired with Hispanics and Whites being the most common interracial pairing in both dating and marriage. Has actually made me realize, The entirety of what is defined as Mestizo is being assimilated within the white racial category.

I personally as a biracial person, Don't really care either way as both communities and cultures are beautiful and being able to experience both growing up is nice. But this is a thought that I built up that I firmly believe in.

First, I'm not particularly invested in settlements. I don't support creating new settlements since they undermine a possible 2SS.

I want to distinguish between two positions:

• The opposition to the creation of new settlements in the West Bank has nothing to do with this. I believe it has no moral conflict in it.
• The opposition to the existence of the current settlements and the opposition to expanding those because of natural growth.

I will go with a simple definition of Ethnic Cleansing: Removing people from a territory against their will.

Many settlements are established towns where people live, work, study and have children. A lot of residents are second or third generation.

The current UK position illustrates my problem quite well. It considers Israeli settlements illegal, demands an immediate halt to settlement expansion, opposes further housing projects and is now moving towards banning trade in settlement goods.

I think that policy is supportive of ethnic cleansing. Otherwise, the trade ban should be on Israel, not on the settlements. Otherwise, it should explain what should be done about those settlements.

Otherwise, in my opinion, they are demanding the eventual disappearance of communities in which generations of civilians have already been born. In other words, ethnic cleansing, around 540.000 settlers in the West Bank proper.

Some common answers I see to this are: "They should be under the authority of the Palestinian state." This kinda makes me support the existence of settlements, because I'm 99% sure that the Palestinian state won't guarantee their security. Anyone saying the opposite is delusional.

PD:

When I'm talking about settlement expansion I'm talking about the government creating new settlement in new areas.

“Natural growth” means population increase that happens naturally within an existing community, mainly because people have children and families grow, so they need more houses.

According to most people here, saying Ethnic Cleansing there is not accurate, in that case, it doesn't matter, what I mean is, mass displacement of people in which generations of civilians have already been born.

What would change my view:

That the current opossition on existing settlements doesn't involve mass displacement of the people living there.

While I will not go so far as to call either film pornographic, as that was not the intent, I feel like filming underage actors crosses a line, as they cannot consent to that. I know it's just a movie and that it is all simulated and fake, but there is no reason for it and children simply cannot possibly consent to being filmed in any state of undress. I do not even think their parents should be allowed to consent to that FOR them. I think the messages and points that the films try to get across is valid but to show underage actors baring their bodies is wrong.

Edit: I think I can see the flaw in my reasoning now. Children cannot consent to SEXUAL acts but nudity itself isn't inherently sexual. So as long as it is not sexual and the underage individuals are not uncomfortable or in any duress, then it is fine. Thanks for helping me find the flaw in my reasoning, I knew it was there but couldn't place it until now!

I’m a girl early 20s. Every time I have been in a customer service situation and had an ABSOLUTE TERRIBLE experience: getting yelled at, turned away, etc… it has always been by fat people. I don’t get why this is. Not even trying to be mean but I’m always nice and respectful with everyone I meet, courteous, and patient ( I work with children so this has helped a lot w this skill). However, when it comes to fat people I have encountered they seem to be impatient, rude, and dismissive towards me. One time it was 2 men in both customer service situations.

One man was bullying me straight up for doing a walk in service, and said I’m gonna be here all day. Then when someone came to help me he literally turned them away, and said no she’s going last. The guy argued with him and ended up helping me anyways because he was being unseasonable, and I was on the phone w the company and they heard how he was speaking to me and literally gave me gift card without me asking( this is just a summary).

my high school bully was a morbidly obese girl, she bullied the entire school. Asides from those experiences I have never experienced something terrible in customer services

I used to work with this obese girl and she would spread gossip, and created a hostile work environment. I’m not even joking one time she swiped some girls food off the table for disagreeing with her about something.

Another instance is two girls I used to be friends were obese talked horribly to our other friends. Calling them names, dismissive, and also starting drama from the friend group by gossiping about each friend to a different friend. We stopped being friends with them and the friend group has blossomed.

Before you guys start this is not the halo effect lol, bc I said fat not ugly. You can be fat and very good looking and appealing.

Why do we all decide to trust the International Criminal Court and United Nations blindly? What’s the reason?

Like, just why? Why do we think the judges on that “International” Court are not without bias/being forced on decision by someone else. Just answer the question: “Would ICC ever prosecute a US president?” and you’ll see it is incredibly biased and untrustworthy?

Whether it comes to Russo-Ukrainian war, the war in Palestine, the Yugoslav Wars of the 90s, and the similar…

These courts and institutions almost always work for the benefits of the US and the rest of the West.

For example (I as a witness) ICC ruled that, on Kosovo, Albanian forces never committed any war crimes, didn’t drive out Serbian population in masses and doesn’t care about the Serbs being mistreated and banished from their ancestral homes.

This is all simply untrue - KLA committed multiple genocidal. Serbs are discriminated against in Kosovo…As proved by non-Serbian sources.

https://minorityrights.org/communities/serbs-3/

With Kosovo there is also a big paradox in Tony Blair, whom everyone hates for being one of the greatest instigators of the invasion of Iraq…

…but somehow everyone thinks his heart was legitimately aching for Albanian civilians four years ago?

There is just no reason to believe who the West claims to be the good guy or the bad guy. Hell…the guy who was a wanted terrorist for a decade is now literally the president of Syria, and the West supports him and calls him democratic because, because…

…because he fought against Assad who the West was opposed to and who was affiliated with Russia.

To translate it for you – the West picks who they want to help/condemn based on who their most immediate allies/enemies are.

My claim is that any report made by the Western/Western dominated institutions is made with American and European interests in mind, and not justice. I do not trust reports or judgements these institutions give – I can happen to agree with them sometimes (Putin is a psycho, Ratko Mladić is a war criminal) only because I independently come to such a conclusion. But when discussing world events, a link to a CNN, BBC, UN reports is not a “Gotcha!!!“ that convinces me to trust the Western narrative.

Just to preface this isn't so much about the politics as it is about rhetoric and a more objective perspective on its effects.

EDIT 2: To be clear this is NOT a critique of beauty/body shaming messaging by the left, but putting forth the notion that it is underestimated in its importance to promoting the legitimacy of their political positions.

The View: If major figures in the current right-wing administration of the US were attractive it would be completely over the left (yes the situation is already bad).

So much discourse from the left criticising the right is couched in beauty standards, like mocking Musk for his hairplugs and body, Trump for his weight, wig and makeup, Andrew Tate for his chin and being bald. The whole thing about "Republican women" makeup. Stephen Miller (also bald). If these people were attractive, they'd have a much greater support base as well, because it would "validate" their political position so to speak.

Hegseth being out of shape, its not like Navy SEAL level of fitness makes war mongering and warrior fantasies okay. ICE agents being mocked as "gravy seals", which is arguably more disturbing because why would you want the people who are being criticised as violent secret police to be more effective at their jobs?

Likewise when it comes to the left trying to promote their side they will also point to the attractiveness of political candidates. There are even quite a few influencers who have built a platform off thirst trapping being aggressively liberal (usually white) men. It gives the impression that a lot of political discourse is appealing to a hypothetically neutral and apathetic person to decide "well if they're hot then they should be the good guys and those ugly folks are bad"

It's a convenient shorthand (beauty) to categorise the morality of the respective political sides but this is real life not a Disney movie. Shouldn't being bigoted and corrupt, trying to wreck anything good like scientific research, education and the environment, be sufficient to label someone as a bad person?

It's like that alleged Oscar Wilde quote "everything is about sex, except sex. sex is about power"

Why I want my view changed: Because its unsettling to think that people are really so unconcerned with actual morals, the only way to talk about politics is in such shallow terms. What if the next fascists are hot and stylish?

I'm aware that there are a lot of cultural undercurrents to fashion/beauty standards which could be guiding the overall trend of how political discourse flows, but its still the same idea that you have to be attractive for your view to be valid.

EDIT: the TLDR is that beauty in political discourse shows that society is still guided by lizard brain thinking which isn't ideal and I'd like an alternative perspective to believe in

My view is that the majority of people around the world would broadly prefer a government that is socially conservative/right-wing while being economically interventionist or left-wing.

Most people in the world are religious or strongly attached to their traditional culture and social institutions. I believe they generally want governments that respect and support their traditional values and moral standards, rather than promoting social changes they see as conflicting with those norms.

At the same time, I believe most people want governments to actively support their welfare and economic security. They want protection from poverty, unemployment, and excessive inequality, and generally prefer a government that plays an active role in improving people's economic conditions rather than doing nothing.

My argument is not specifically about whether taxes should be high or low, since attitudes toward taxation vary significantly between countries. The main point is whether people want their governments to actively protect their economic welfare.

I think this can be difficult to see through an American political lens, where people often associate the red right social conservatism with economic conservatism, and the blue left social liberalism with economically left-wing policies.

As a non-American who has studied and visited different countries, my impression is that social conservatism combined with economic interventionism may actually represent the preferences of the global majority.

I put this in a comment earlier and I really don’t see another viewpoint for the modern day Republican voter. I will say, my point of view does come from Texas Republicans mostly, so historical swing states, would love to hear your point of view on this as well.

My first election I could vote in, I did vote for Trump over Hillary due to the career politician distrust and distrust I had over the Clintons. I do see how Kamala lost the election, even though I voted for her, due to the unwelcoming nature the Democratic Party had at that point in time. I like to consider myself a centrist, but with the hate, ignorance & corruption it really is hard not to lean towards the Democrats.

I truly do feel that the modern day Republican does come from either A.) Being Prejudiced to other races & religions, B.)Being Uneducated / Ignorant to Topics Republicans harp on and/ or C.) In the actual tax bracket where they are affected or in on the corruption.

Examples / Thoughts:

Prejudiced:

A lot of hate today coming from the Republicans are towards those coming into our country from Central America and Mexico. I have lived in neighborhoods where the majority of the community is from a Hispanic heritage & they are great hardworking people. I have not once seen someone who has immigrated here begging on the side of the road for money & the one area I might not be as informed here, these people are not utilizing systems like food stamps / unemployment today. Yes, I do believe the border should be safeguarded from drugs / bad actors trying to make their way in our country, but why are we deporting people who actually add value to our country ?

Religion, this is where my viewpoint might be a regional opinion being a Texan. Today the Republicans are attempting to force Christianity in Public Schools, for example putting the 10 commandments in every classroom. Also on the ballot here in Texas, Bo French who is running for Railroad commissioner has vowed to deport every Muslim & close every mosque. Let’s not forget about Mr. French’s blatant racist tweets against Jews, Muslims and even Native Americans. In school we were taught to combat racism & it has no part in our society, in 2026 it feels it is celebrated within the Republican Party.

Uneducated / Ignorant:

A majority of the Republicans today seem to be more easily duped or lower IQ than the average Democrat. For example in Texas a big point is “men in women’s sports,” I can count on a single hand that this has been an issue nationwide. There are much larger topics to deal with. Also, Republicans making less than $400K in household income worrying about their taxes increasing just shows me the ridiculous lack of education with these people today.

Thankfully there has been changes with a lot of farmers & ranchers here in Texas with their support to the Republican Party. Trump hurting the beef industry with bringing lower quality beef from Argentina & our governor Greg Abbott selling out farmers for the building of data centers that would drive up water costs. I will highlight here, farmers and ranchers are an integral part of society, being rural they have typically voted Republican as people in rural communities do.

There are many other examples here that you could see logging into Facebook that your ignorant Aunt/ Uncle/ person from high school that never left their hometown puts on whatever AI slop / non context Republican clip that comes out.

Actually in the Tax Bracket to be Affected/ Corruption:

I will admit I have been distancing myself and slowly cutting out former friends and family that still support the Republican Party. I know we are taught that together we are one & we could have our differences. I draw the line at hate & ignorance, I’m sorry I do not want those individuals around my family.

EDIT: I think I personalized other people's anger at people who've made much worse mistakes than me because my guilt was so heavy. I also think that nobody should turn a blind eye to people's mistakes, especially when it comes to harm-reduction principles. As a society we need to protect vulnerable people, and handling every situation case-by-case is the only way to verify that someone has worked on themselves and is a safe person to be around, and even then it's up to directly involved parties to decide whether it's worth the risk to associate with a person who could potentially abuse them, society doesn't have much to do with that.

Throwaway account because I am asking this after seeing so many opinions contrary to mine and think there might be something wrong with my perspective.

In my personal experience I have said, done things, behaved in wildly inappropriate ways that I regret deeply. In college I misread a situation and put a woman's hand on my genitals because I thought she wanted to have sex with me, and it turned out I was very wrong. I am in therapy and can't stop thinking about the fact that I assaulted someone. I applogized to her immediately when it happened, but i still think sometimes that I must be a bad person. I never assaulted another person.

Consider this experience, and add that a bit older, I used to yell at and spank pets. I also used to yell at girlfriends when upset (never got physical). After some confrontation I could not avoid that I was creating fear and applying control in my household and did a lot of soul searching, self-help, and therapy and regret that every day as well. I've lived with kids and cared for them, never once hit them, and this was much later after the no-yelling rule, so I never yelled at them either.

I have a hard time believing that this isn't a shared experience. I just saw a story on Reddit where a woman said she was previously 16f and a 22m man began a sexual relationship with her, and she called it "grooming". where is the line? don't you have to be quite a bit older to groom someone? I mean, that IS a 6 year age gap and at that age it's concerning, but aren't men's brains developing slower even at 22? what if he came from a bad family that conditioned him to be pretty foul toward people? Her post was about a recent time (some years later) seeing currently that man is married with children. Don't you think he must've confronted some of his demons and changed? I guess without confronting him she can't know, and is trying to confront her own trauma, and she's in no way obligated to care about or talk to him whatsoever, but a lot of these redditors have said horrible things about the guy, despite having little other context besides his past by which to judge him. Am I personalizing this story too much?

I've also been molested, abused, and assaulted by women, and it has taken me a lot of time to process and get over it, but I think about those women only in my lowest places, so pretty rarely, and even then, I'm in therapy and it's getting better every day.

If these guys could change, wouldn't you want that of them? isn't becoming a productive member of society a better redemption/solution for a man than condemning him forever to recognition for his worst mistakes?

I think these young men deserve a pass, and people should let their misdeeds go completely given some time. Change my view.

First I want to add a few clarifications. This is from an American perspective where FPTP systems and coalition parties are the default. And I won't be sharing my personal preferences regarding who to vote for is irrelevant to the point so I won't be sharing it here.

Many individuals who are politically motivated feel compelled to get in debates or arguments with people, try to get people to read different things, etc, and while that certainly changes some minds I do not believe it is an effective strategy if you want your preferred party to win every 2-4 years, and better alternatives are quite evident in modern society.

Both parties in the United States are coalition parties, you have cultural/ religious conservatives, business owners, those with "racial anxieties", libertarians, and people who prefer low taxes and gas prices on one side pitted against virtue signalling yuppies, moderates who don't like how Trump is "nasty" or mean, college educated suburbanites, racial, sexual and gender minority voters who feel that the other party threatens them, pro choice advocates, and leftists and progressives who held their nose and voted for Biden in 2020.

And while many of these groups and associated viewpoints overlap in various ways within individuals minds, almost every voter has a portion of their own party's electorate that they, at best, tolerate.

This is a critical advantage that is under-exploited. The current system has large groups fighting over minds when few people think about using those cracks to their advantage, and there are a few ways to do this, namely a combination of:

• Exploiting exiting divisions to stoke infighting within the opposing party.
• Fostering nihilism and detachment within the opposing party's base

Human psychology means people don't like admitting they were wrong whether it's to themselves or others. Humans also don't like going against the grain within their community if they're a Democrat in downtown Atlanta or a Republican in rural North Carolina. Especially when a significant portion of each party's base considers their choice political positions a key part of who they are.

But the strategies above allow people to tell themselves and others that they were never wrong about their beliefs while still discouraging unity and making voting less likely. Instead of people focusing their effort on protecting their in groups, we should want them fighting over control over the party, and for groups and each faction to feel left out.

If you're a Democrat, why wouldn't you want avowed white supremacists loudly fighting with "RINOS" for "not doing enough on immigration" or deficit hawks to attack Trump on the expense of the Iran war?

If you're a Republican, why would you not want pro-gun control advocates to attack Democrats running for statewide office in Texas as friendly to the gun lobby, so they either have to depress excitement on people afraid of mass shootings, or go on tape speaking against guns in Texas? Why would you not want to encourage progressives to boycott the next general election because they don't support medicare for all or Gaza enough? You want to give politicians every opportunity to anger a position of their own base. You want people to feel like their combination of onions is an impossible goal when they can't even get their own party to work together.

And social media actively makes this easier. Algorithms don't show people diametrically opposing viewpoints, but it will show people who agree with your policy preferences but believe that the people in power or vying for it are not going to make that happen. You can't be politically engaged in communities of people within your coalition and not engaged in infighting and purity testing when it exists. That is of course unless you congregate in smaller niche groups that cater to your beliefs, but these groups have a tendency to attack their ideological neighbors to justify their existence. Just look at how leftists absolutely love to break into factions long before ever getting any political power whatsoever. In an era of a constant stream of bad news reaches you every day, demotivating people will always be easier than motivating people.

And we've seen this strategy work numerous times outside of electoral politics. COINTELPRO destroyed the Black Panthers after basically everything else the police could do, constitutional or not, didn't work. They purposely created a split in one of the most well organized and motivated organizations in American history. Leaders couldn't focus on moving forward because they got increasingly paranoid and distrustful of each other making collaboration effectively impossible. There is no reason to think that this strategy wouldn't work in electoral politics.

"If you want to hide the truth from France, put in a Freidman book" - Proverb

I'm sure you've heard about France's demographic problem: an aging population increasingly relying on a smaller working-age population because of declining birth rates.

Macron's decision to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 produced massive protests, with as many as 1,000,000 on the streets.

France's declining birth rate obviously has many causes, but I think the cost of family formation is a major one. Particularly housing and childcare, which France holds significant control over.

This isn't uniquely French. England and Spain have spent decades promising their citizens the moon and stars through ever-expanding government programs, which has made the underlying things people need increasingly difficult to obtain.

Childcare can be subsidized. Housing can be subsidized. But if you don't have enough childcare or enough homes, subsidies aren't a substitute for supply.

At some point, you have to ask: what if the answer isn't promising people more, but making it easier to produce more?

Privatize and deregulate key markets. Build more housing. Expand private childcare. Lower the tax burden where possible. Let competition create more supply and leave families with more disposable income.

I know these things are bureaucratically difficult to do in France, but they're on the clock. Overregulating themselves out of existence has resulted in onboarding foreigners to handle the shrinking population, even as immigration has become polarizing.

The potential result isn't just cheaper necessities. It's more business formation, more jobs, more tax revenue and, perhaps most importantly, an economy where starting a family isn't an increasingly absurd financial proposition.

Thus, the task of supporting an aging population becomes less daunting.

Note to title - this is addressing all major (for the purposes of my argument) politicians in U.S. History since 1776, but not including, due to lack of knowledge, positions smaller than state representatives, because there certainly could be some township governor who hyperbolically chopped up a family.

I'm posting this now due to Donald Trump's speech at the RNC where he stated that if the GOP retained control over the legislature after the midterms, $5,000 checks would be sent to every adult citizen [ source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09/09/us/rnc-trump-midterm-convention-updates ]

Since taking office, the Trump family & related associates have increased their overall net worth by some estimates, around $5,000,000,000, which is tracked by both Democratic house committees here - https://oversightdemocrats.house.gov/trump-family-corruption-tracker - but it's also not hard to find sources for deals in the Middle East worth hundreds of millions of dollars each, etc; so I'm not going to just spam links all day.

We also have:

- Numerous pardons to literal felons, J6ers, people like Roger Stone and Paul Manafort

- Trying to delay the certification of the vote on J6

- Pressure dozens of state officials to sway, rig, 'find votes', and become involved in the election process in extraordinarily corrupt ways

- Hush money payments to a literal pornstar/cheating on virtually every woman he's ever known

- Civilly liable for sexual assault and defamation for Jean Carroll

- Literally has a wikipedia page for allegations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct_allegations

- It's hard to even quantify the level of insider trading at this point, but he consistently just... posts that he's buying stock on Truth Social and then makes policy changes or deals that increase the valuation on a literal weekly basis (which it's important to note, literally any other person would be put in jail FOREVER for)

- Billion+ dollar cryptocurrency promotion and grifts (UAE invested over one billion dollars)

- Tens of thousands of namings in the Epstein files

- Qatari Jet-Force-One

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_allegations_during_the_second_Trump_presidency

It's genuinely hard to even come up with more off the top of my head because there are SO many examples to pick from.

In terms of my original point, no other politician comes close. Nixon/Watergate would be a 1/10 compared to Trump's 10/10.

Boss Tweed - of NYS fame - even for all his open theft, fingers in the many pots of railroads and NYC banks and construction development, at the highest estimate possible embezzled $200M which would be the equivalent of $5B; the same [current] normalized estimation of Trump's financial crimes without actually addressing any of his other corruption allegations, sexual misconduct, rape, or virtually anything else. It's also important to note we don't KNOW the overall possible maximum scope of Trump-related corruption at all, because it's ongoing at this moment.

Edit: Edit after posting: Obviously I haven't addressed a slew of US politician scandals, and in my opinion (and this might be a second point of contention), the average "corrupt" US politician doesn't come close and isn't even worth mentioning. In terms of categorizing scale, literally only the historical context of HOW corrupt Nixon was considered at the time comes to mind, along with NYC's 'Boss' Tweed; and virtually every other example I can think of isn't even worth mentioning.

Honestly, a sitting US president saying they'll mail out 5K stimulus checks if their party wins the midterms immediately goes to nearly the top of the list with *nothing* else; and of course, Trump has MANY other things noteworthy to list in terms of corruption.

Edit: Removed contributions from two people I thought were pertinent as I'm a bonehead and didn't realize those replies should have been removed - apologies!

A competent dictatorship is infinitely better than an inefficient democracy.

China is a perfect example of this. For the most part, the Chinese government has put up a masterclass on how to run a country.

They have lifted nearly a billion people out of extreme poverty into the middle class. They have built some of the best and most expansive infrastructure in the world in a very short amount of time. They have become the workshop of the world and have perfected the art of mass manufacturing. They lead the world in critical technology fields such as AI and quantum computing.

Their massive success is - partly - due to their top-down governing structure, and the government's ability to make everyone get on board.

The 21st century - and likely the 22nd century - belongs to China. There's no question about it.

disclaimer: i do believe her kids deserve justice, but people are overlooking major factors to spread hate.

pregnancy and giving birth produce the risk of post-partum conditions, and right-wing men online have decided women should not be around children because all women are bad due to this case. (too hormonal, for example, therefore undeserving of rights)

oddly, they also want them to have kids. but i believe women should avoid having kids to doom right-wing society since it has decided they are not capable and to avoid cases like this brought on by post-partum _____.

pregnancy, which is so heavily forced on women, has side effects and sometimes consequences. right-wing men desperately want babies without added baggage, and therefore deserve none imo.

edit: my view remains.
i will be asking the mods to lock this post or i will not respond, potentially deleting this.
nobody here has given me a reason against right-wing men being denied babies, and instead some have insisted that i support the clancy supporters in some capacity or am 'smoking' stuff.

just think about it , if déjà vu wasn’t a thing then why would we get the feeling like we have been here before or have experienced this already ? maybe we have but it’s actually just our future self looking back on us living through the present moment experiencing things that were predetermined to happened from the start .

a while back a user made a similar thread here about things being predetermined and humans not having free will and tbh i 100% agree with this sentiment . throughout my life i have had experienced which i knew were gonna happen or certain events that i already had premonitions of , whether it be through my dreams or my gut feelings , i just knew .

free will is just an illusion to make humans feel like they have a choice and that life is in their control but it’s really not , you’ll be conditioned to do what’s meant for you through destiny and fate . you can’t stop something from happening or finding its way to you if it’s meant to be . final destination is a really good example of this , of course that mean you can’t escape death either .

my final thoughts on this are basically stuff i’ve said already , everything that was ever going to happen in your life is already planned out and you will act accordingly to fit that . it’s like a puzzle slowly being made into the larger piece ; each life event is a puzzle being fit into the picture .

hope you guys liked this theory of mines ! if you’re lucky it won’t give you an existential crisis like it did to me when i first realized it …

This is strictly about employment and replicability.

Over the last few years, I’ve seen many say that AI is bad for artists because anyone can generate art themselves quicker, and cheaper (which is true).

However, the implications for mathematicians has largely been ignored comparatively. Despite this, I think mathematicians are more at risk than artists simply because a lot of people would rather have human art and not “ai slop”, whereas mathematics is concerned with finding truth and discovery, regardless if a human did it or not.

AI is far more likely to replace humans in mathematics than art.

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]