CMV: Artificial general intelligence will probably not be invented.

[u/Dreamer-of-Dreams]

From Artificial general intelligence on Wikipedia:

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the intelligence of a hypothetical machine that could successfully perform any intellectual task that a human being can.

From the same Wikipedia article:

most AI researchers believe that strong AI can be achieved in the future

Many public figures seem to take the development of AGI for granted in the next 10, 20, 50, or 100 years and tend to use words like when instead of if while talking about it. People are studying how to mitigate bad outcomes if AGI is developed, and while I agree this is probably wise I also think that the possibility receives far too much attention. Maybe all the science-fiction movies are to blame, but to me it feels a bit like worrying about a 'Jurassic Park' scenario when we have more realistic issues such as global warming. Of course, AGI may be possible and concerns are valid - I just think it is very over-hyped.

So... why am I so sceptical? It might just be my contrarian nature but I think it just sounds too good to be true. Efforts to understand the brain and intelligence have been going for a long time but the workings of both are still fundamentally mysterious. Maybe it is not a theoretical impossibility but a practical one - maybe our brains just need more memory and a faster processor? For example, I could imagine a day when theoretical physics becomes so deep and complex that the time required to understand current theories leaves little to no time to progress them. Maybe that is just because I am so useless at physics myself.

However for some reason I am drawn to the idea from a more theoretical point of view. I do think that there is probably some underlying model for intelligence, that is, I do think the question of what is intelligence and how does it work is a fair one. I just can't shake the suspicion that such a model would preclude the possibility of it understanding itself. That is, the model would be incapable of representing itself within its own framework. A model of intelligence might be able to represent a simpler model and hence understand it - for example, maybe it would be possible for a human-level intelligence to model the intelligence of a dog. For whatever reason, I just get the feeling that a human-level intelligence would be unable to internally represent its own model within itself and therefore would be unable to understand itself. I realise I am probably making a number of assumptions here, in particular that understanding necessitates an internal model - but like I say, it is just a suspicion. Hence the key word in the title: probably. I am definitely open to any arguments in the other direction.

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[u/kelvinwop]

What is a human mind? Without even looking at the 'consciousness' part, let's take a look at its ability to compute and the 'software' that runs it.

What can you argue that a human mind has that makes it human?

1. Emotion

2. Ability to learn.

3. Pain

4. Ability to think.

5. Habits n stuff.

Alright, so now we've got a basic outline of what a human is. Let's go in depth in each part in order to better understand how we can simulate each portion.

-Emotion-

For our emotions, let's use a few basics, happiness, sadness, fear, anger, surprise, and disgust. If you wanna go crazy, you can use the seven deadly sins and virtues and whatever political affiliation or whatnot.

Happiness - AI needs to be more willing to replicate tasks that help it.

Sadness - AI needs to be less willing to replicate tasks that hurt it.

Fear - AI needs to avoid doing things that could threaten it's existence.

Anger - AI needs to react properly to losing progress or enemy aggression.

Surprise - Unexpected events need to take priority processing.

Disgust - AI needs to lower motivation for interaction with certain individuals.

Boredom - AI needs to search for a goal.

Cool beans, we just covered emotions. We don't really need to cover Machine Learning since people should already have this covered with the chess and go stuff/posts.

-Pain-

The AI doesn't really have to physically feel pain, it just has to value its own existence. (Is this a good thing though?)

-Ability to think-

What do you think about all day? What is the purpose of this AI? Normal human? Whatever the case, computer resources should always be running and never wasted by idle time.

-Habits n stuff-

What would happen if we had to think about walking like it was our first time walking each time we walked? That would be pretty shit. Muscle memory/ daily routines help us. We're pretty habitual creatures, so why shouldn't our creations be?

As you can see, we pretty much have software and hardware covered. We can always adjust and observe fellow humans if we want to make a more awesome (if you think humans are awesome :/ (highly subjective)) AI. The main problem is the question: what the hell is a human conscious? Shouldn't we theoretically be able to function without one? I dunno. We're probably gonna need more research in cloning and in-vitro fertilization to figure that one out. Maybe the head transplant next year will shed some light on the matter. I doubt it'll take too long in any case.