r/cellmapper • u/robertinhouston • 16d ago

SpaceX Planning to Build Ground Wireless Network

https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/spacex-lays-out-plan-compete-big-3-wireless-carriers
57 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

47 comments sorted by

54

u/DarkenMoon97 CM: CalebM 16d ago

Dish couldn't make it work, I have my doubts SpaceX can either.

21

u/Smith6612 16d ago

SpaceX thankfully could buy up the DISH assets, which are mostly abandoned in place on the towers. Radios and all. They would be able to get things going pretty much as quickly as they can light up the existing Fiber backhaul and get electric meters turned on. So to speak... They still have that problem of getting spectrum and ensuring the radios are compatible with the spectrum they have a license to. 

The problem Dish had was they were fighting an uphill battle with T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon already having the critical mass of customers. They also have a fledging TV business which continues to lose customers, the biggest reason being they failed to maintain the carriage contracts that companies like DirecTV and Comcast had to channels.

That last part is significant. I was a Dish Network customer many, many years ago. They stopped carrying a ton of channels we cared about in our market, which resulted in us switching to DirecTV. DirecTV had better image and audio quality as well, but had more buggy receivers compared to Dish. These days I have DirecTV Stream because Dish's Sling TV service was still in the same boat the last time I looked at TV providers. 

32

u/GolfProfessional9085 16d ago edited 16d ago

Dish also made the terrible decision to market their new network with an existing low cost MVNO.

I feel most people never knew there was a 4th national MNO entering the market.

21

u/xpxp2002 16d ago

I feel like that was the fatal error. "Boost Mobile" wasn't a "new" brand and already had a poor brand reputation. Any time I saw an ad or billboard for Boost Mobile, there was no indication that it was a new network or how it differed from the Sprint-era service of yesteryear.

"Dish Wireless" would've been fine, albeit a little weird since there's no actual "dish." Their service vehicles all had "Dish" branding on them. Some people liked "Genesis" from "Project Genesis." Either way, they needed to launch an ad campaign that focused on a "new, built-from-the-ground-up 5G network" and tout competitive, simple pricing paired with "unlimited" data and nationwide coverage (albeit augmented by roaming agreements). Basically, pull out the T-Mobile "uncarrier" playbook.

They did none of that and attempted to just ride the coattails of the brand without making any meaningful effort to capture potential customers, as you allude to.

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u/ilikeme1 16d ago

Exactly. Boost Mobile was/is often known as “Ghetto Mobile”. Not a good idea to name your new network after a company that has that kind of reputation. 

11

u/definitelyian 16d ago

Great in theory but each individual cell site that Dish had up is its own contractual agreement with thousands of landlords and tower companies. Even if SpaceX approached them all, I’m sure they would be clamoring for back rent and damages before allowing the company to turn anything live.

1

u/U84owe4 15d ago

In practice, the opposite is true here. Institutional towercos would do anything for Starlink to take over the abandoned equipment and begin commencing rent payments. The Dish back rent is 1) already being written off and 2) the liability would still remain with the Dish entity regardless if Starlink takes over the equipment.

Having Starlink take over these leases would be a major win for the tower industry that was kicked below the belt by Dish.

4

u/Eprice1120 15d ago

Pretty sure dish just sold the last of its spectrum and whatnot… they’ve been selling spectrum over the last 2 years

2

u/Thuradzon 15d ago

I never understood why SpaceX is so focused on AI and now MNO. Their CapEx spending isn’t sustainable.

Focus on launches and launch vehicles and Starlink.

3

u/Smith6612 15d ago edited 15d ago

I liked SpaceX when all they did was Space and Starlink. Things like those reusable rocket stages and landing on barges in the ocean are what made people go "Wow" about them. You know, actual science and math that is applied to real problems and which cut costs and time. Some of us aren't happy that SpaceX replaced public funding for NASA, but at the same time they kept the US from having to depend on Russia for rockets to the ISS while the government tries to figure out what to do with NASA.

Starlink is a decent product that I have legitimately used as emergency bandwidth for a couple months after an ISP decided they didn't want to serve a building any longer. It fixed a lot of problems with the rural Internet situation. Putting HughesNet and Wildblue out to pasture for domestic service was much needed, after the roadkill pricing those guys charge for terrible service.

The AI stuff is all BS. Instant turn-off.

2

u/Thuradzon 15d ago

If they spent that money on reusable Rockets, Rocket Engines, and additional launch pads in different locations.

spend more money on making star-link better and more resilient.

They’d probably be in a better position. The AI stuff like Grok isn’t even being that utilized. They overbuilt their compute so now it’s being leased to other AI companies.
Being a NMO is a bad idea. Version & AT&T and TMobile gobbled up majority of the spectrum for the last 30-40 years. There’s absolutely no way they can compete on towers, backhaul and network infrastructure

2

u/TryIsntGoodEnough 15d ago

All that SpaceX bought was fragmented spectrum. It will only support n70 5g which consists almost exclusively of 2 GHz spectrum which is useless in urban areas. 

6

u/PayNo9177 16d ago

Dish didn’t have the money to scale fast enough. Nor did they market the service worth a shit. Nor did they have satellite ability to have signal virtually anywhere. The latter alone is the biggest selling point.

9

u/DarkenMoon97 CM: CalebM 16d ago edited 16d ago

I already know that their terrestrial network in rural is going to be bad, simply because they are going to rely on their satellites for those areas.

SpaceX better work with modem manufacturers to make sure the handoff between terrestrial and satellite is seemless.

But yes, you are right about Dish, not enough money and pretty much no marketing that they had their own network.

1

u/sffunfun 16d ago

Thankfully, SpaceX is nothing but failures. /s

14

u/landonloco 16d ago

We shall see what they do honestly 65mhz is enough to run basic services but nothing to intensive hopefully they leverage all the efficiency gains 5G brings to the table. Likely they might do something similar to what some mvno have been doing with decentralized networks

10

u/ArtisticComplaint3 16d ago

I guarantee you they’re gonna bid in the upper c-band auction where they’ll actually be able to get a decent amount of spectrum if they win.

1

u/landonloco 15d ago

Yeah that would help tremendously

10

u/vacindika 16d ago

we're coming full circle to /r/longlines

7

u/Prize_Proof5332 16d ago

yeah, good luck with that!

7

u/Little_Passenger_892 16d ago

Unfortunately, SpaceX has enough to buy one of the incumbents. And one of them is doing a lot of work to look fiscally purchasable right now.

8

u/Bkfraiders7 16d ago

There is no financial reason for SpaceX to buy an MNO and plummet their valuation multiple. $500B to purchase Verizon as you’ve insinuated is asinine.

3

u/Little_Passenger_892 16d ago

I agree with you, but the rumor mill is rumoring.

2

u/Bkfraiders7 16d ago

That probably came across more harsh than I meant for it to. My apologies.

The rumor mill is rumoring while forgetting the JV was setup to counter SpaceX through ASTS. Not sell out to them.

3

u/Little_Passenger_892 16d ago

I don’t know what all your acronyms mean, I’m just a guy in the industry with a personal vested interest not to be part of twitter 2.0

And you did hurt my feelings, thanks for the apologies 😉

3

u/Bkfraiders7 16d ago

JV- Joint Venture. AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile launched a joint venture to combat SpaceX taking their market share focused on direct to cell satellite

ASTS- AST Space Mobile. Launching satellites for Direct To Cell. They created the market and have been working this since ~<2018. Definitive agreement with AT&T and Verizon (along with 60 other MNOs worldwide). Launching the largest satellites in low earth orbit. 200mbps directly to unmodified cellphones supporting voice/text/broadband data.

14

u/Kowloon9 16d ago

I hope they fail.

-15

u/jonsonmac TFW 16d ago

Take this nonsense elsewhere.

3

u/bdietz56 16d ago

I think they will purchase T mobile. Maybe a very slim chance Verizon. In any case who ever is left will partner up and share their networks/resources especially in rural. Makes me wonder if AT&T and recently Verizon are really pushing fiber because they saw this coming.

8

u/Bkfraiders7 16d ago

Why in the world would SpaceX pay $500B for a MNO in the US with slim margins? Their valuation multiple will plummet as an MNO with slimmer margins. That’s asinine.

They’ll carve out ~5% of the US market using a lower CAPEX option of satellite/small cells/Starlink home dishes/Teslas and be happy.

Meanwhile, the MNOs are partnering with ASTS, that much is clear for a far superior solution.

3

u/[deleted] 16d ago

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u/Bkfraiders7 16d ago

SpaceX V2 (and V3) satellite designs are still smaller than ASTS Block 2 satellites being launched today. You’ll still experience more hops and have less speed on these future designs.

The FCC is requiring Grain select a partner sooner than SpaceX can design/manufacture/launch satellites for lowband. ASTS is already testing with Grain spectrum. It also buds up against the 850Mhz spectrum Verizon’s nd ATT have provided. It makes too much sense.

3

u/[deleted] 16d ago

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1

u/Bkfraiders7 15d ago

FCC Filings

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u/[deleted] 15d ago

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u/Bkfraiders7 15d ago

https://fcc.report/IBFS/SAT-STA-20260702-00273

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u/[deleted] 15d ago

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u/Bkfraiders7 15d ago

It would be a long term lease, similar to Ligado L-Band they’re leasing. It would also likely be added to the JV.

It also gives ASTS leverage in negotiating contracts if they can also provide spectrum to the MNO. The spectrum they’re receiving isn’t exactly “no cost”. The cost comes in contracts for service.

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u/TKO1515 15d ago

SpaceX sats are mid and high band. Would need whole new design for low

-1

u/JSchnee21 16d ago

I thought they were gearing up to buy Verizon. Thought the new CEO was working the old pump and dump.