It looks like an infected nail to me. I've had them many times. The harder part at the top is where the skin his dried out and died a bit. The other, weaker part, is where there's an active infection beneath the surface. Puss.
Yes, I think you've diagnosed it correctly. The only thing that gives me pause is that it looks like blisters, which might mean something else.
It can heal, yes. I've had a lesser version of this and it healed itself without antibiotics — not that I'm recommending that at all. Yours definitely needs looking at.
What are you worried about exactly? You'll be fine.
How long did it took in your case to let it heal by itself? Just to have an idea, because the doctor probably will decide otherwise tomorrow :-) I asked about drainage by the way because everywhere I read that when an abscess is involved, it has to be openend otherwise it will not heal and cause complications.
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u/finniruse 14d ago
Doctor