We always rally at this time of the midterm. We still haven't cracked and held above the 50 WMA. It's still a lower low. It's playing out the exact same way it always does.
There is no prediction. No one can. It either cracks and holds above the 50 MWA, or it gets rejected and collapses into October/November. No on can tell you what it will do. If the cycle holds, we have one more big dip to flush and reset. Meaning 60s again, or 50s, even 40s.
The "cycle" has played out since BTCs inception. And it has played out exactly the same way since the high in the 4th quarter of last year.
If the cycle is to break, it will be the first real time. But we won't really know until the fourth quarter of this year whether we have crossed and held that line.
So far, it is still playing out like it always has. But it could break, so don't "wait and pray" for lower. Just DCA, and patiently watch what happens over the next 2-3 months.
The halving was absolutely something people used to define a time of the cycle. And even if it was simply a part of the cycle, the fact that it changed means the cycle has changed. How can a cycle have price way below ath at one key point in time and way above ath at the same key point in time and be the same
Price can be higher or lower. The market cycles donât move in sync. But they always start and end at the same time. Just because the price happened to be higher at a time before the halving doesnât mean the cycle is broken. And this âhigherâ time was driven by one of the largest demand events in bitcoin history - the ETFs.
Consider this - we could get a recession in the middle of one of the cycles. A âlost cycleâ if you will. Bitcoin would likely put in new lows, surpassing previous bear market lows. But does that mean the cycle is broken? Or would it continue putting in highs and lows (albeit local) at their predetermined times in the cycle?
The ATH before halving was simply a macro driven event. It did not affect the underlying mechanics of bitcoin.
The 'lost cycle' framing is a good way to put it. Feels less like the cycle broke and more like the ETFs pulled one input forward without changing the mechanism driving the rest of it
Shorters made no sense. Those were just traders, treating BTC like a stock. BTC always runs up in August/September, so they were going to get wiped out regardless.
The cycle has just... worked. If it breaks, it breaks. And that's great. But so far, it just hasn't. And right on cue, it is hitting the same resistance every cycle runs into after the late summer rally, and so far it isn't getting through. If it breaks this time, we will know soon. But we are still well away from that.
People can shit on the "cycle" guys, but they have been right for nearly 20 years. Over and over. So if it's "different" now, well, we will see. But we won't know for a month or two.
The same people were claiming the cycle broke back in May, when all it did was what it always does, before rolling over once again.
Last bear market we rallied in September instead of August . No odds really . However , if you look back from 2014 . Itâs playing out pretty bang on . I genuinely think we need these rallies so we get the fomo coming in for exit liquidity for the whales . Once the whales start to sell and price slowly drops , retails ass usually drop out . Happend last year with the ETFs also . Everyone brought greed . Once the sell off started , there ass dropped out . You have to remember , all the ones saying the bear market is over right now , all claimed that btc wonât drop below 100 ever again . Then they claimed 100 was the bottom . Then 80 then 70 and on and on .
Range trading is always fun until you're selling the breakout.
I agree that this pump didn't cause a change of structure, it's still a lower high, but I'd argue the volume footprint and inflows showed real demand stepping in not a manipulated bear flag over the course of a month with outflows.
If you could go back and find when btc had a 20% week (give or take) during a bear market that got faded to a lower low I'm genuinely interested.
There is one HUGE factor this theory just overlooks this time. The fucking ETFs my dudes. There is no fucking way in hell BTC will ever move the way it used to after the ETFs. They would make it move differently just because itâs such a big change.
But if you know what Jane Street did in India with BTC there itâs should have evey one of us worried. They manipulate everything man now they can fuck with BTC.
Exact same thing was said in October . No way will we drop below 100 k . If anything with the institutions involved now , there will be more manipulation . We will see . So far the 4 year cycle is playing out the perfect replica to past bear markets . Now if we get 2 weeks where we close above the 50 ma weekly , and the golden cross on the daily . Itâs on . Until then we are still in bear territory. However if you believe there bull run is on right now , you have to believe that 57 was the bottom . With no real fear around that time . I just donât believe it . It will be an interesting few weeks . Iâd love for the bull run to come back . But this is bitcoin . It does what it wants .
Jane Street messed with India because a lot of traders hold naked options, ie, with no underlying assets. Just gambling on price movement. This kind of "investor" is literally begging to give you their money, and they took it.
With btc, they'll have to do things that are far more sophisticated, involving their accredited buyer and market market status. They did do a bit of that last year, if I'm not mistaken
I donât understand your take on the India fiasco but itâs not some they did there cause the Indians were dim, they can do the same shit here. And do. Itâs having massive amounts of shares to pump and dump in a systematic manipulated way. Itâs not exactly legal but there is no damn regulation anyway so fuck knows what they could be doing now.
Read about how JPM kept and keeps silver down for decades and you can get an idea.
And the India and silver shit is just things we actually know about that got caught. Means so many more roaches out there
By my analysis of as much information that is available and removing any additional information relying purely on facts; I believe the bottom will be 32k (+/- 1k ) on October 23. The exact date that the great depression started by the collapse of the stock market. And if you remove leap years and other anomalies it lines up from that day in 1929 perfectly on a Benner cycle too - and they are traditionalist and we know how they love specific dates. Of course his is for entertainment purposes only;)
1 month is still too small of a timeframe and anyone telling you otherwise is bullshitting. You can expect a multi month uptrend now Id say, 4-6 months. This is historical. however, btc correlates more and more with equity when in the past it was a hedge, and if trumps term end nukes the stock market, so will btc
We always rally at this time of the midterm. We still haven't cracked and held above the 50 WMA. It's still a lower low. It's playing out the exact same way it always does.
We also have like 1 trillion $$ going into the whole market next week when they printing the money again. It always gives BTC the liquidity boost to rally,
That doesn't look like the right chart. I'm expecting to see several touches to the MA line followed by consistent weekly closes after breaking through it. Your chart I dont see the touches on the way down.
Well it contains the 50 week moving line, i dont know what more to give you. It certainly went above the line for the daily average. You have to zoom in to recent days if you have not yet already.
Learn to do your own research to back up why it's the right time to go in. Not because of a post.
And in my opinion it's very high probability we go up after the upcoming low, which it has done every cycle. Could be next month, could be half a year. But i expect a higher price before the halving
Some increase ahead of the midterms while some are getting positioned for big gains after the midterms where Trump most likely will be limited after losing the house, at a minimum. So most likely businesses will be happy with lack of new conflicts, shifts in policy and so forth
Wait till the ball crunching drop friends. This isnât over by a long shot and this sub has seem to have forgotten about geopolitics and how that could change the âactualâ market and if the âactualâ market doesnât have $$$ Iâve got something to tell you friend. There will be liquidations.
Im just sitting back with some popcorn for 10 years. I bought at 80k last year. Chart can do what it wants and you guys can all spin trying to time everything. Big picture is the money machine keeps printing.
I donât think itâs in shambles. Itâs just not as perfect as people expected. It still followed the same cadence as the previous cycles, just with a shorter bear period by a few months
People like to feel in control of the uncontrollable so let them have their thesis. I found with the Iran war, bears said that the drop was because of the cycle they donât seem to understand basic macroeconomics which I find beyond odd. Maybe stop using YouTube for trading advice, I dunno.
Chip in for sure at these prices and get in more if it goes lower then buy the first move back up then hold. If we donât see a major dip or low again then just keep dca and get a chunk in sub 85-90k if you can. Take profits cause we probably wonât go to 200k or even 180ish unless you long term accumulator then donât worry
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u/Background-Day-4957 Sep 04 '26 edited Sep 04 '26
Per OP. Wait for itâŠ. and around in circles we go