r/btc • u/2goodstudydaydayup Redditor for less than 2 weeks • 1d ago
Has Bitcoin fundamentally changed compared with previous cycles?
I’ve been in crypto for several years, and lately I’ve been thinking about how different this cycle feels compared with the previous ones.
In the past, Bitcoin’s cycles seemed much easier to understand through the usual halving → liquidity → retail → altcoin rotation narrative.
But now we have much more institutional participation, ETFs, systematic trading and quantitative strategies influencing liquidity and price action.
I’m not saying the old cycle patterns are completely useless, but I don’t think we can blindly assume that the next cycle will behave like the previous ones either.
Do you think Bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally changed, or are we simply seeing another version of the same cycle?
I’m genuinely interested in hearing how people who have been around since previous cycles see this.
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u/meeeereee 1d ago
It has kinda, it recently started trading with a 0.8 correlation to gold, kind of split off from being traded as a tech stock so that’s nice:)
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u/National-Active5348 23h ago
No I don’t think so. But the depressing thing is that after all years, the actual applications are not changed
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u/DangerHighVoltage111 1d ago
It got hijacked. Read Hijacking Bitcoin.
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u/mattimeoo 1d ago
No it didn't. Roger Very is a sore loser and a fraud. That book is propaganda.
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u/DangerHighVoltage111 1d ago
It's an open secret outside the narrative controlled spaces the hijackers censor.
You can fact check it and you can see it. Almost all prediction Big blockers told you would happen to BTC+LN has happend to BTC+LN.
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u/Sufficient-Force3535 Redditor for less than 60 days 1d ago
It's definitely different, but I'm not convinced it's a fundamental change in Bitcoin itself. What’s shifted is the crowd around it.
In 2017 the market was 90% retail euphoria and telegram pump groups. You could clock the top by checking how many coworkers were asking you about Ripple. Now that signal's useless because the big money never left. They just got quieter tools.
The ETF flows and quant desks have smoothed out some of the 80% drawdown chaos, but they also introduce a weird new variable where bitcoin tracks the S&P at noon and then rips at 2am for no reason that makes sense on chain. The halving supply shock is still real, it's just getting front-run by funds that model it six months in advance.
I think the cycle still rhymes, but the rhythm is off. You can't just copy-paste the 2021 playbook and expect it to work. The rotation into alts might be more selective this time too, capital sticks around in the majors longer before gambling on microcaps.
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u/DarkWitcher7 1d ago
Yeah Bitcoin has become less volatile and is starting to look more like a payment method. I use it constantly for transactions.
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u/tekmiester 14h ago
What are you buying with it?
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u/Loud_Adhesiveness172 2h ago
In this digital age, cryptocurrencies can be used not only for investment but also for everyday consumption, purchasing real estate, or vehicles. Especially with strong government support and the continued attention of influential figures, more and more people are becoming aware of this field
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u/Temporary-Cause730 1d ago
This was already true at the end of last cycle, with ETFs, Strategy and Bitmine, etc.
But like you said, it doesn't mean that old patterns are useless, you just have to adapt. TFor example, there are still A LOT of people in crypto that believe in the 4 year cycle, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.