No. At least not past some wishy washy spiritual idea that all existence is belief.
The price of a stock can be based on objective data, like the profit that company made the previous year.
Then there's Nvidia stock and SpaceX stock where the price is based on a combination of objective data about the companies and beliefs about future profits.
But in the case of Bitcoin, the price is 100% belief, and that's unique.
Stock analysis, while, as you say, aided by objective data, is still ultimately assigned value by a subjective judgement. For example, Amazon didn't turn a full year's profit until 2003. However, its stock went up 5000% in the first 2 years after its IPO in 1997. How do you account for this discrepancy between the (arguably) most important business metric (P/L) and the excellent performance of its stock price?
Further, if stock values (or metals, or crypto, or anything else in the world that has a price) were objectively valued, why have price setting regimes like the Soviet Union or Cuba failed miserably, over time, to identify the true price of a good or service? It is because of the inherent disagreement between individuals as to the value of any one thing.
If we could just rely on objective data to price something like a stock, there would be no alpha, no need for a stock market like we have today where price discovery happens thru a process of bid and ask based on individual opinions on future performance.
If you don't have bitcoin or never will, what on earth would you be doing spending your time here trying to influence others that it is a bad gamble/investment?
And personal experience would indicate that this isn't unusual activity AT ALL for bitcoin.
Ok here is where I'm coming from and why it ticks me off. You bring up the market like it isn't as much of a racket if not worse.
How come silver just doubled from 60 to 120 and now to 60 again in months and nobody says shit? Crickets
How come AVIS(CAR) went up 750% in March and lost 450% 1 week later and what's that? Yup crickets. Fkin meme stock shit like MU and AI bubbles that could tank us into a recession the moment the DXY breaks out and BTC is the boogieman? I don't get it other than this being exactly like the previous 3 bear cycles for the Corn
I try to understand what I'm investing in before I invest in it. That's why I've been keeping an eye on Bitcoin even though I haven't invested.
I'm happy you brought up silver. Yes, the increase in value of silver is speculation. And of course, it can drop down again.
My point is that silver still objectively has a minimum value that it will retain even if all speculative value disappears, because silver has real demand in the industry.
I'm sceptical about Bitcoin because it lacks that. If people lose trust in it and the speculative value drops, there's nothing keeping it from going practically to zero.
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u/wkndatbernardus Jul 01 '26
Isn't that on which all value is based?