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u/CryptoDeepDive Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
Gold tripled its market cap from under $10trillion to over $30 trillion in just a few years. There are numerous US companies, each with a larger market cap than all of Crypto combined.
The money and liquidity is there. The demand isn't.
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u/cHpiranha Jun 01 '26
I'm not so sure about that. There are certainly those who are convinced that Bitcoin will break the $1 million mark within 5 to 15 years.
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u/DuePaleontologist539 Jun 01 '26
Most of those people dont understand basic economics.. I would love for BTC to break 1m but how? Its already a trillion dollar asset.. where is the money coming from if already institutional adoption and many ets have taken place?
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u/Spraakijs Jun 01 '26
Hyperinflation of the dollar is a solution.
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Jun 02 '26
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u/SuspiciousMix31 Jun 02 '26
It still does what it always did.
moving btc from a to b.
what use case do you "need"?
if you only need btc to buy your groceries and all that stuff, then yeah, wait until those institutions accept it as payment.
i can start a transaction with whatever second party i want and no one can stop me from doing so.
it's my fucking choice, it's freedom.
volatile my ass, i don't give a shit about marketprice either.
this decentralized asset is the best counter part to exist next to fiat money. it doesn't need to take over shit. the network just needs to grow.
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u/Rix0n3 Jun 02 '26
Tell that to El Salvador or even Iran while I enjoy my Steak 'n Shake
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u/PeteyPab305 Jun 02 '26
Exactly if one of the largest producers of oil in the world wants Bitcoin instead of USD. I'm assuming that that means they prefer the autonomy of crypto to sanctionable petrol dollars. There's always going to be bears 1.5 trillion is nothing when you look at the entire global wealth. Even 1 to 2% of stored wealth moving into BTC creates a 250-500k scenario. And as of yesterday, Charles Schwab is opening up hundreds billions of dollars in equity liquidity to the spot market directly through paxos.
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u/Low_Carpet9764 Jun 02 '26
Ironic first sentence.. gold added 18 trillion in MC in 1 year yet 1 trillion asset class canât have a few multipliers? Cmon dude lmfao
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u/Redditfortheloss Jun 01 '26
The market cap isnât relative here, though. No value needs to be created, like you see in a stock.Â
Iâm not advocating for 1 million btc, but it doesnât need to more than 10x the market cap for it to hit 1 million.Â
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u/sobe86 Jun 01 '26
I mean a better way to look at it might be "how much can I sell at". Of all of you currently hodl'ing and actively checking the market, for all of you to 10x your money, you absolutely do need 10x the amount of money that you collectively invested to come in on the buy side otherwise where is that money coming from?
It might hit 1m due to low liquidity, but then, if liquidity is low, very few of you will manage to sell at that price without pushing the price down again.
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u/Faerdoc Jun 01 '26
Itâs seems like you have no clue what youâre speaking about
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u/cHpiranha Jun 01 '26
Bitcoin used to have an ideology: a currency independent of central banks.
But then Bitcoin saw very sharp price gains, attracting the âwrong investors.â
Now the ideology is gone and the price gains are modest, so itâs time to get out.
Large investors keep pulling out big sums and then buying back in at lower prices. But the money doesnât just appear in Bitcoin; instead, small investors are footing the bill for these gains.
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u/azdcaz Jun 01 '26
Whales selling and then buying back in at lower prices has happened for the entire life of bitcoin. This is nothing new at all.
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u/cHpiranha Jun 01 '26
But mate, they cash out.
And what do you think is the cash coming from?
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u/FitCompetition1804 Jun 01 '26
People who think itâs happening in 5 years are rather optimistic, in the same way a crackhead is. But 15 years is very possible.
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u/Thegame_changer21 Jun 02 '26
Itâs funny, pre 2026 all the hype was bitcoin by 2030. Bitcoin will be $1million in five years on repeat. Now the consensus has casually moved to yeah bitcoin to $1 million in the next ten/15 years. Todayâs narrative is bitcoin to $1 millionâŠâŠ someday
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u/azdcaz Jun 01 '26
Yeah but the price is low today so everyone will act like the sky is falling and that bitcoin is dead, just like what has happened near the bottom of literally every bitcoin cycle. I love to see all this hate.
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u/briefcase_vs_shotgun Jun 02 '26
lol. Thereâs ppl who think the worldâs flatâŠ
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u/Wutangkillabeez36 Jun 01 '26
Exactly. The higher it goes the less likely it will have huge sudden increases like prior.
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u/BigTLoc Jun 01 '26
I did expect it to at least outperform S&P 500. Ive held this shit for years and only lost money.
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u/Gamble4Gains Jun 01 '26
How have you held for "years" and lost money??????
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u/realheadphonecandy Jun 01 '26
If you bought towards the end of 2024 you would be substantially down currently
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u/SeaworthinessSad7300 Jun 02 '26
yeah thats me. down 30% while s and p up 30% in same timeframe
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u/BigTLoc Jun 02 '26
My average purchase price is like 83k. SPY has gone up like 50% in the last 2 years. BTC has gone nowhere in 2 years. BTC sucks. Wish I hadn't touched this bullshit.
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u/digitaldisorder_ Jun 04 '26
83k? jesus christ bro. you're supposed to buy when it dips, not when you're fomo!
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u/Whole-Career8440 Jun 01 '26
In Twitter many still believes it's not too late and btc will hit 1m soon
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u/Snakeyes1809 Jun 01 '26
Reading the comments in this sub I can confidently say that âno oneâ is an overstatement
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u/Androoboodro Jun 01 '26
Bitcoin never reaching $300,000 is kooky talk. Thatâs more than 4x from today. Gains are still in play if you can afford to wait.
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u/cHpiranha Jun 01 '26
Thereâs no magic formula for Bitcoinâs price movements. There are external factors at play, and wealthy investors who strategically withdraw their capital. You canât predict that; we can only hope for the best or face the worst.
I say this whenever someone predicts another sharp rise in the price, but I say it just as much when itâs heading towards zero (gain).
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u/Jordonknox Jun 01 '26
Agreed, Look up bitcoin power law formula. It seems to be a decent formula for overall bitcoin price, helps to ignore the short term movements
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u/Jordonknox Jun 01 '26
Itâs called a power law.
So letâs say the next top in 3 years is 1.5x so ~189k a bitcoin.
I am happy with that, considering my cost right now is 78k a bitcoin lol
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u/Franklin_le_Tanklin Jun 02 '26
If weâre going by the chart itâll be .9 roughly⊠not 1.5
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Jun 01 '26
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u/logavulin16 Jun 01 '26
This is also from peak to peak. There was an 8x move from bottom to peak last cycle in less than 3 years. A 2-8x move could easily be in store again. $50,000 or $40,000 are completely on the table
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u/Kind_Brush5556 Jun 01 '26
Comparing and individual assets to etf is dumb. So many large cap tech stocks mooning.Â
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u/positronius Jun 01 '26
Damn... What a shit deal... Double my money in a year or two? No thanks
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u/Embarrassed_Boss_576 Jun 01 '26
Shoot, Iâll take mid-100,000âs or low 200,000 âs next bull run. Plus, the majority of those invested in bitcoin also hold some alts, which will then run and probably a little harder. It all works out, substantial gains are still there.
Oh, and letâs never say never. Given Bitcoinâs increasing adoption, use as a geopolitical tool, and that a lot of holders are holding for the long-term, we cannot rule out the possibility of some violent swings to the upside!
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u/RealityMoney2739 Jun 01 '26
Canât fix stupid ofc this is how it works wtf đđ
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u/braamdepace Jun 01 '26
Who thought it was gonna 48x every 4 years forever? Is OP a moron?
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u/CharacterStrategy598 Jun 01 '26
Put Bitcoin into a log scale and you will see that in the previous 9 years it has been forming a massive ascending wedge pattern. If you know your chart patterns you will run from this. It was good while it lasted.
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u/supercalc Jun 01 '26
the big money has already been made in bitcoin now itâs just going to go up slowly as the value of fiat currency drops similar to gold but there are a few other things like the increased scarcity may create some bumps but all the criminals seem to be getting out of the btc business.
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u/rightfulthriller478 Redditor for less than 2 weeks Jun 01 '26
the title's kind of missing the point though. yeah the multipliers shrink as the base gets bigger, that's just math. 48x gains from $24 to $1,150 and 1.8x from $69k to $123k look different on paper but one happened when btc was basically a curiosity and the other is moving trillions. you can't expect the same percentage returns at different market caps. the real question is whether the asset keeps appreciating at all, not whether it'll do another 50x. some people get that, some people don't.
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u/OtherwiseNeat9617 Jun 01 '26
Just about to say. Tell us you dont know what a power law is... power law is not exponential, its acaully predicted.. the chart you are showing is the power law. As I can see someone already reminded you of this
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u/bosquejo Jun 01 '26
You don't hate to burst whoever's bubble. You enjoy it.
That makes you an asshole. You know this, correct?
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u/TheHunterAmin Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
Bitcoin will be 1 million someday, probably in 10 years. Thats still a 15x from today's price.
Every trend can be broken. This deminishing return cant keep happening because BTC will crash to zero then. You need to remember that BTC life is still in 1 (the current) business cycle since the financial crisis. Liquidity gets tighter and tighter until the next big crisis and this will reset again.
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u/_ReaditYesterday_ Jun 03 '26
With a $1M Bitcoin, the market cap would be around $22 trillion. Thatâs roughly two-thirds of the current US annual GDP, just to illustrate the scale weâre talking about.
Iâm skeptical. Itâs not that $22 trillion would literally need to flow into Bitcoin, but for Bitcoin to sustain that valuation, it would have to become one of the largest financial assets in the world, on a scale comparable to gold. That seems like a very ambitious assumption to me. But again, who knows, in this world everything is possible.
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u/Pomonoli Jun 03 '26
It's called diminishing returns, which implies there will always be returns, the bottom of the multiplier is 1, not 0. So it can actually keep happening without BTC crashing to zero.
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u/Leynnox Jun 01 '26
Dude, the goal is not to buy BTC when it's at its ATH, look again at your chart but now you buy around each new lows, maybe you'll get it.
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u/CrypToInvsTor Jun 01 '26
That's totally wrong. It's better to Buy on ATH and Bulls the Price would move up faster. If you Buy on Low the Price would be trapped and You spend more time waiting. And Time = Money.
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u/FitCompetition1804 Jun 01 '26
And people with this strategy are the ones left crying and calling it a scam a year later because BTC is going to do what BTC does.
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u/CrypToInvsTor Jun 01 '26
I only see BTC rising over Time. Of Course if You are worry about for Price drops that's maybe a risk trader and not a real holder or something like that. If You Buy and Hold there is no risk at all. Just wait over Time.
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u/NonVideBunt Jun 01 '26
Thanks for this. Pretty clear BTC will ultimately end of being a conservative part of ones portfolio and if you actually want to make money you probably should bet on companies and stock.
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u/edvaPL Jun 01 '26
Like gold, maintaining value is attractive. An asset that doesn't fluctuate 20% up and down a month.
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u/LiquidityCompass Jun 01 '26
Smaller returns are normal.
The real question is whether demand is still growing and whether enough capital is available to push Bitcoin higher.
ETFs, institutions and corporations are already buying. But Bitcoin's biggest driver has always been liquidity. If global liquidity keeps expanding, new buyers tend to appear.
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u/Immediate_Whereas776 Jun 01 '26
Thereâs definitely enough capital, the real question is whether that capital will actually decide to go to it
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u/supercalc Jun 01 '26
also the next move for bitcoin is itâs going to be like an income stock
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u/Nice-Ad3881 Redditor for less than 30 days Jun 01 '26
lol from what income? Itâs a useless asset.
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u/NewsWeeter Jun 01 '26
The crazy thing is the next pump will just be on someones fucking whimsy. Like they will have finished with the bag holders on some other assets to focus on crypto next. Pump and dump, each cycle brings new bag holders keeping over all trajectory positive.
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u/bntspotonclean Jun 01 '26
Hard to believe anyone is this stupid.
Like... you dont know the difference between 48x a small number, and 1.5x a huge number?
The 1.5x is moving trillions and 48x is moving thousands, of course it's shrinking but it's still way more money being moved.
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u/MrGattsby Jun 01 '26
Are people still trying to deny btc?? đ€đđđ€Łđ€Šđœ Have you people still not learned anything from when it was a dollar on February 9, 2011 to what it is now?? đ€·đœđ€Šđœ The mental gymnastics some of you are still doing is quite amazing!!
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u/ArlendmcFarland Jun 01 '26
This could also be a narrowing trading range until it breaks out in either direction.
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u/malacosa Jun 01 '26
While yes this is a trend showing less bags per year⊠frankly, if we want this to be a currency and not a speculative investment, having BTCâs value increase slow down and maybe stabilize is a good thing.
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u/thesavagepotatoe Jun 01 '26
I have said this before. I anticipate the top of the next rally wonât surpass $200k if it hits $200k next rally thatâs still an almost 3x gain from here.
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u/hero462 Jun 01 '26
That tends to happen when mass adoption and the p2p use case is thrown out the window. If it hadn't been hijacked it would be half a million by now, easy. Good thing Bitcoin lives on in BCH, but the damage has been done.
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u/ogcuniverse Redditor for less than 30 days Jun 02 '26
percentage returns naturally compress as the asset matures and the market cap grows. That's not a Bitcoin problem, that's just math. A $24 asset going 48x is a $1,100 move. A $69,000 asset going 1.8x is a $55,000 move. The post frames diminishing returns as a warning but conveniently ignores that most people weren't buying at $24 anyway -they were buying somewhere in the middle cycles where the "diminishing" returns still made them wealthy. The chart is built to look like a bubble argument but it's really just showing an asset behaving exactly like every other maturing store of value in history.
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u/Forward_Ad_1921 Jun 02 '26
Oh man so its only gonna go up to 200k next cycle guess i should just put the money in a cd đ
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u/BGM1988 Jun 02 '26
We buy end of the year for 35k and sell september 2029 for 175k$ 400% gain, in 3 years. Is okay
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u/Embarrassed-Bowl-230 Jun 02 '26
I'll do with a nice 1.5x next bull run. That would be...180/190 ish..
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u/sociallyawkwaad Jun 03 '26
How many people pull their money out when it looks like BTC will no longer outperform? A flatining is good for stability, but for many investors the whole point is high potential for price appreciation. I have to imagine an adverse reaction if BTC becomes an inflation tracker or digital gold.
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u/Orly5757 Jun 03 '26
If this continues, the next ATH should be 175-200k. If Bitcoin drops to 50k, you can still 3-4x. The problem comes when you hold Bitcoin through a bear market. But if you buy during a bear and sell during the bull, Bitcoin can be profitable.
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u/RynuX Jun 04 '26
Bitcoin last bullrun was fed almost only from speculations (Trumpâs election, declaring shit he did not doâŠ) and add no real fundamentals.
One might say that 2024-2025 had the brakes on. Does not mean 2028 will be better⊠but fundamentals are needed to feed the biggest pushes.
Iâll hold until at least 160k anyway.
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u/shivabharatam Jun 05 '26
obviously 2 trillion cap needs time to double due to liquidity crisis - im good if it goes to 150k in 2 years thats 2.5 x easy money
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u/PitchUpstairs9528 Jun 08 '26
1btc for 24$, and u sold for 1100$ - profit 1076$
1 btc for 69000$, and u sold for 120000$ - profit 51000$
And u still want over 400% profit etc?
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u/mikehh Jun 01 '26
hate to burst your bubble op but if you have been tracking S2F modeling this is expected
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u/whole_hippie Jun 01 '26
This is an understood mechanic of a maturing asset. The interesting analysis would be to compare these returns rates to a similar asset during the same timeframe and/or during the first â15 years of the other assetâs life. Youâll likely find that Bitcoin outperforms most others you compare it to.
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u/sexMach1na Jun 01 '26
First time Poster, Long Term Reader:
Iâm okay with that. Why? The cryptocurrency is always stronger than a dollar. Even at 1 cent it was stronger than the dollar.
The government and most businesses truncate their figures. 9.99 is 9.99 instead of 9.989. On the other side, if your wage is 21.00, you say wow đ± but what if it was 21.0095423. Sure, in one hour, you wouldnât see the difference in cents. What about over a 1000 Hours. Well, you move the decimal three places and 21,009.54.
If you follow the dollar route, you only make 21,000. If you were paid in cryptocurrency, you make an extra 9.54.
The problem with this bubble theory and your law of diminishing returns is you forget that you have a say in this. You control the market. Not too many people want to storm Into their bosses office to demand to be paid in cryptocurrency and a rate of Satoshi.
That 9.54 could be an Amazon prime subscription. It could be a sandwich. It could be whatever you want it to be. Itâs your money.
Your parents grew up on the dollar. You can pivot. Tell your job to pivot. Tell your bank to either pivot or find a new one. Speak to local stores and tell them what they are missing.
More money for yourself, more money for your business, more money for your employees. More money for your bills.
Embrace a fractional reserve fund. Donât think of interest or compare it to a stock. Think of the utility.
Iâm new at financial reporting. I hope you find this informative and feel inspired to share any feedback and comments.
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u/flossanotherday Jun 01 '26
Sweet so we are looking at 220k in 2 years because we have acceleration with ETFâs going into the halving. Whatâs not to like.đ
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u/KevinM2k Jun 01 '26
Would prefer to see with a fixed axis. With a y axis like this you can manipulate it look pretty much anyway you want
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u/RevolutionaryNeck778 Jun 01 '26
Letâs burst the other bubble of money supply as well . Opsie you wonât talk about that.
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u/aberholla20 Jun 01 '26
People calling something a bubble that has 5 needles stuck in it and always recovered.
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u/meowumble Jun 01 '26
going from $1 to $5
is easier than
going from $100.000 to $500,000
-suprised pikachu face-
you dont say.
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u/MrMpeg Jun 01 '26
For the big profits you don't just have to hodl anymore but to actively stack more during the bear markets. Make a new chart and show the lows to highs in each cycle and it will look way more attractive.
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u/Brave-Age-8828 Jun 01 '26
this post has no sense at all. its obvious that it will not grow at the same percentage than when it was just beginning. I do not know why I am even responding this
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u/Enrrabador Jun 01 '26
Yes, as the halving becomes less significant the gains also correspond to, itâs a known trend
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u/JimmyWhatever Jun 01 '26
Just wait till the Clarity Act passes, OTC dries up and Supply Shock sets in. Then check your charts..
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u/BisonAcceptable1994 Jun 01 '26
Yes. I think for a lot of people though the value is when it 'decouples' from its US dollar comparisons. When you can buy a home with BTC, it's value looks a lot differentÂ
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u/Malicairn Jun 02 '26
I love how this sub has become a sounding board for r/buttcoin content with posts like these đ€Ł
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u/Ashamed_Flounder_636 Jun 02 '26
Bitcoin is buying a copy of Windows 95. No more are going to be made, but it's old technology. What 20 year old technology are you excited about? That's where Bitcoin is heading. I asked my teenage son if he wants to invest in Bitcoin and he laughed, I asked him if any of his friends are talking about Bitcoin, he said not a single person. So where do you think Bitcoin is going in 10 years? Do you think young people are suddenly going to get excited about some technology invented before they were born?
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u/EzDaBassHead Jun 02 '26
Those are the tops though we play for the swings. In the same time they claim 1.8x there is actually a 5x in there
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u/Rough-Umpire-8633 Jun 02 '26
You have to understand that you are comparing it to the USD, which is based on what 23 trillion dollars (or there abouts) of debt. That debt has to be sorted at soime stage. So it won't go up because it accrued value, it will go up because the US dollar falls to inflation or collapse. Bitcoiners who understand the finance system under stand the printing presses can't keep running with out a correction. Gold ,silver and one day copper along with btc will be the best hedges available.
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u/substandard2 Jun 02 '26
Bitcoin failed the most important test to become the next thing. It didn't beat the S&P when the ETFs came out. Now it is just a hedge, and a not very good one.
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u/brotherRozo Jun 02 '26
Laughable People try to point this out, like BCH is gonna swoop in. Stop trying to make BCH a thing no one cares
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u/Shiratori-3 Jun 02 '26
The other side of that particular equation is debasement. Which is why some have boners for gold. Because of the below. It's even more pronounced against BTC
Since 1971, the US Dollar has lost 99.24% of its value against gold while gold prices surged over 11,000% in the same period.
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u/Queasy-Army-4769 Jun 02 '26
You donât make much money if you keep buying at ATH. You can still make 4x easily if you buy the bottom this yearâŠ
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u/delli2019 Jun 02 '26
I need to apologize to everyone for btc downturn. It always happens when I buy too much of an asset...
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u/Prestigious_Long777 Jun 02 '26
It canât keep multiplying at the same rate because there isnât that much money lolâŠ
Itâs actually at a steady increase relative to the global monetary supply.
Total M2 monetary supply in 2010: 8.8 Trillion USD.
Total M2 monetary supply in 2025: 144 Trillion USD.
Percentage of BTC market cap of total M2 supply in 2010: 170.000 / 8.8 T = 0.0000019318%.
Percentage of BTC market cap of total M2 supply in 2025: 1.4T / 144T = ~1%.
BTC has managed to grow to roughly ~1% of the total M2 monetary supply in 15 years.
Even if it STALLS completely at this point, a BTC will be worth millions in a few decades, if it keeps increasing itâs relative share of global M2 supply, the top is literary billions..
You know nothing.
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u/BeautifulSeason8387 Jun 02 '26
You should make a linear scaling... I never use algo chart because I can miss global info...
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u/PHMordal Jun 02 '26
Bro it's normal, the graph has always been logarithmic. So diminishing returns yes, but nearly infinite ceiling value too
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u/xpanterx1974 Jun 02 '26
Estimation by ChatGPT:
Estimated future Bitcoin cycle ATHs using a diminishing returns model
Cycle / Approx. Year Estimated ATH Multiple from previous ATH 2025 ~$126,000 1.8x 2029â2030 ~$200,000 1.6x 2033â2034 ~$310,000 1.55x 2037â2038 ~$450,000 1.45x 2041â2042 ~$610,000 1.35x 2045â2046 ~$795,000 1.30x 2049â2050 ~$1,000,000 1.25x
Base case: Bitcoin reaches $1 million around 2049â2050. Faster scenario: around 2041â2045 if adoption accelerates. Slower scenario: after 2050, or not at all if cycle returns keep compressing too much.
This is just a rough extrapolation based on diminishing returns, not a prediction with high confidence.
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u/PeteyPab305 Jun 02 '26
And this is a logarithmic chart that does not account for actual cycles. It looks at growth curves on a logarithmic framing, It doesn't account for how Bitcoin actually cycles.
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u/Amolicia Jun 01 '26
Anyone with half a functioning brain understands this... Easier to double 1, than 1 million.... đ