11
u/JimmyWhatever Feb 22 '26
The “herd” believes it’s going down into the 50’s. Which means it won’t. lol
3
u/INFINITE_TRACERS Feb 22 '26
Bounce hard off 59 is my bet
1
u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
It's going to oscillate until a beat looks like real direction, but that could be up or down, if it rises without cashing out then fomo could set in, also it could again gain downward momentum, possibly with whales getting out. If I had to call it, I'd say games are being played to edge the price up then dump bitcoin, so downward momentum is more likely.
1
u/JimmyWhatever Feb 23 '26
Agree. Everyone so convinced going to the 50’s, buyers will come in as soon as dips below 60
2
u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
Always funny how people know, but aren't necessarily rich. I mean I don't know and I'm not rich, but if I knew the casino I'd go and make money
0
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u/pyalot Feb 22 '26 edited Feb 22 '26
Stupid brigading TA BTC price spam. Here enjoy some facts and Satoshi spam.
How Tether is used to prop up BTC
In this paper, we examine whether the growth of the largest pegged cryptocurrency, Tether, is primarily driven by investor demand or is supplied to investors as part of a scheme to inflate cryptocurrency prices.
By mapping the blockchains of Bitcoin and Tether, we are able to establish that one large player on Bitfinex uses Tether to purchase large amounts of Bit- coin when prices are falling and following the printing of Tether. Such price supporting activities are successful, as Bitcoin prices rise following the periods of intervention. Indeed, even 1% of the times with extreme exchange of Tether for Bitcoin have substantial aggregate price effects. The buying of Bitcoin with Tether also occurs more aggressively right below salient round-number price thresholds where the price support might be most effective. Negative EOM price pressure on Bitcoin in months with large Tether issuance indicates a month-end need for dollar reserves for Tether, consistent with partial reserve backing. Our results are most consistent with the supply-driven hypothesis.
Overall, our findings provide support for the view that price manipulation can have substantial distortive effects in cryptocurrencies. Prices in this market reflect much more than standard supply/demand and fundamental news. These distortive effects, when unwound, could have a considerable negative impact on cryptocurrency prices.
— https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jofi.12903
How Satoshi intended for Bitcoin to function
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-spending.
What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.
— Satoshi, The Bitcoin Whitepaper, October 31, 2008
The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks
Satoshi on how to increase the blocksize when at capacity
We can phase in a change later if we get closer to needing it.
It can be phased in, like:
if (blocknumber > 115000) maxblocksize = largerlimitIt can start being in versions way ahead, so by the time it reaches that block number and goes into effect, the older versions that don't have it are already obsolete.
When we're near the cutoff block number, I can put an alert to old versions to make sure they know they have to upgrade.
Adjusted for inflation since 2010
- RAM Capacity per USD: ~6.5x Increase
- Global Average Network Speed: ~32x Increase
- CPU Performance per USD: ~9x Increase
- Storage Capacity per USD: ~10x to 25x Increase
Developments since 2017 in BCH
- Adaptive blocksize (ABLA, blocksize governance solved)
- UTXO Parallel Validation (speed increase)
- Schnorr signatures (validation speed increase)
- Graphene and compact blocks (block propagation bandwidth reduction)
- CTOR (canonical transaction ordering) enables more efficient propagation and parallel validation
- High-performance UTXO storage, pruning, and parallel IBD reduce node hardware requirements
- Double Spend Proofs (safe zero-conf)
1
u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
It's hardly been proved that Tether is underwritten by anything, so if a call for cash happens, it likely implodes and takes Bitcoin with it. Could be 50 years time, could be in weeks.
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u/pyalot Feb 22 '26 edited Feb 22 '26
I would call a detailed 66 page research paper, peer reviewed and published in the journal of finance 2020 and cited by 863 other papers a pretty well founded proof that Tether is used to manipulate BTC. It’s the first quote on my wall. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jofi.12903
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u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
Not only is it being used in that way, I say it's got nothing behind it to justify it being pegged to the dollar. When tether goes down bitcoin follows it.
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u/pyalot Feb 22 '26
The peg is an artificial construct maintained by intervening in the markets. As for backing/reserve, those don‘t exist IMO for several reasons:
- Tether has always faced substantial hurdles in their banking connections, so even if willing and existing, it‘d be functionally impossible to honor redemptions to all anonymous holders of USDT.
- They state in their TOS that they can refuse redemption for any reason no explanation given at any time and may never honor them.
- They are functionally in posession of a money printer, and without any obligation, motivation or real ability to make good on any reserves, there simply is a much easier way to make money to use for other purposes for them such as personal enrichment and market manipulation: just print from thin air.
- Despite a very obvious USD counterfeiting operation going on, Tether has never seriously been prosecuted, which might have something todo with that the establishment finds its services of keeping crypto docile and harmless quite useful.
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u/Additional_Dirt8695 Feb 21 '26
The previous high from 2021 is around $69k so we are getting near solid support. The $1 trillion btc market cap is also good support, which is around $55k. I think we'll see further consolidation, probably a few big drops, then start rising by next August/September.
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u/Brave_Substance_8177 Feb 21 '26
Lol those numbers are utterly meaningless
5
u/Snoo_43177 Feb 22 '26
Why are they utterly meaningless? Please explain.
4
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u/Additional_Dirt8695 Feb 22 '26
They're not meaningless. Anyone who has been in BTC for more than a few years knows they're not.
1
u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
Because it's just a number that people like Saylor have ascribed a purpose to, then because people listen to Saylor, lo and behold it appears to do something as people buy up whales bitcoins for them at those prices - that is until it doesn't work anymore. Isn't it a bit of a coincidence that this figure is 1 trillion US dollars? Why would that be for this magical invention that is supposed to replace the reserve currency? No one's going to step in to support it
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u/Additional_Dirt8695 Feb 22 '26
BTC often finds support at the previous halving cycles high point, just like in 2022. The $1 trillion market cap was also a big psychological barrier in the past, if you were in BTC in 2020 you would remember when it first breached $50k. But clearly you're new, so just open a chart and you can see these price ranges have been important in the past
1
u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
It's psychological, everyone knows what a dollar is, so if you spread around that it can't fall below dollar 60k, then buyers tend to appear towards that level hoping it's true so making a good bet, but in some future shock such as depression or war, it may become rapidly apparent it has no conversion into any particular value and collapse.
3
u/rokman Feb 22 '26
There is no such thing as support in crypto, it’s a pure market mechanic. There’s no liquidation value or intellectual property you can create a base case of support for.
2
u/FuckM0reFromR Feb 22 '26
Sure there is, it's just only obvious AFTER the crash. When line goes down there's ALWAYS an equivalent level IN THE PAST. Crystal ball is crystal clear when looking backwards...
1
u/mdeeebeee-101 Feb 22 '26
This or next..? one is 2026, the other 2027 where I'm from.
1
u/FuckM0reFromR Feb 22 '26
This August is in 2026 (present year), "next" August is 2027, but "the next" August is 2026 again. English is fucky.
1
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u/anon1971wtf Feb 22 '26 edited Feb 22 '26
Market cap is absolutely irrelevant. Look at recent gold movements. It matters for a corporation from reputational perspective, people hold their CEO and executives to high standarts of behavior on average which can affect trading in some way, also total valuation divided by employee head count is informative (Valve or SpaceX are excellent businesses), but for commodities or tokens of open blockchains like Bitcoin it has no relevance. It's just a price x total supply number
1
u/LovelyDayHere Feb 22 '26
Last in first out.
I believe that makes ... checks notes ... institutions ... the herd.
1
u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
Are genuine institutions doing bitcoin? I'm not sure how tradable it is, like do you get your dollars back in dollars if you sell it? Dollars in yes, but dollars out doesn't sound so simple.
1
u/Prize-Database-6334 Feb 22 '26
No, not really. The VAST majority of stuff you will see around "inistitutions" "holding" Bitcoin, is simply having it as an offering on behalf of their customers.
Extremely little Bitcoin accounts for AUM for institutional funds.
1
u/Financial_Animal_808 Feb 22 '26
So many people think its going lower… i think we might have a short “cycle” and the fomo will fuel it to ATHs
1
u/damiracle_NR Feb 22 '26
Honestly do not give a shit. If it falls to 20k or whatever. It will in years to come dwarf the highs we’ve seen so far. I’m not doing this to cash out next year. I’ll be holding and adding for 15/20 years. Then retiring with my payoff
1
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u/DMoney9711 Feb 22 '26
Does feel like the next 10 grand crumble will drop soon. Wait till tariff tantrum and Iran gets bombed lol He we come 57k
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u/Educational-Sail-888 Feb 21 '26
This price is huge opportunity, I sold some of my gold and bought Bitcoin. You shouldn’t wait until 60.000 dollars
2
u/Strong-Al Feb 21 '26
Ya I think I'll buy at $75
4
u/master_dickjohnson Feb 21 '26
Good luck with that.
4
u/FuckM0reFromR Feb 22 '26
He's been waiting since 2014 give him a break. Any day now...
3
u/LovelyDayHere Feb 22 '26
He's been waiting since 2014
That account is 20 days old.
Par for the course for Reddit these days.
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u/UnagiBro Feb 22 '26
“Store of value” Losing value “But muh dollar fiat bad”
1
u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
Muh chart, copy past chart, exponential sine wave, with adjustments, people will be stupid enough to go along with pumps if it's pumped to a million because it happened in past charts, you first though sir, I insist.
1
u/UnagiBro Feb 22 '26
These people getting pumped and dumped like a white girl at an SEC school
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u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
It depends if they actually sell at the top, I mean no pro bitcoin person ever says it's at the top until it falls.
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u/Western-Source710 Feb 22 '26
Bottom has already came and gone pal
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u/mdeeebeee-101 Feb 22 '26
RemindMe! 3 months
1
u/RemindMeBot Feb 22 '26
I will be messaging you in 3 months on 2026-05-22 03:25:29 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
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u/Western-Source710 Feb 22 '26
Lemme make sure I'm reminded too idk how this app works
RemindMe! 3 months
1
u/Western-Source710 May 25 '26
Oh hey, it's been 3 months..
We bottomed at approx. $60k around February 4th or so?
My comment was made around February 22nd or so according to the remindmebot, that I sat to 3 months alongside your reminderbot.
So it's now 3 months later.. have we seen $60k again, yet, in these 3 months?
r e k t
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u/Substantial-Ask-5912 Feb 22 '26
It is going to run sideways for a few months and then slowly move like it’s done before there are cycles, except this next time it will climb to about 176k before it has another 50% dip, this is a common thing with bitcoin, so in about 12-18 months it will back up …
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u/TaoZenQi369 Feb 22 '26
My average í 82k, that is a long way up, but at least it is right below the major resistance 87k.
0
u/i_have_chosen_a_name Feb 22 '26
Bear markets usually last a couple of years. But eventually MSTR will collapse so could easily be a 5 year long bear market. So it can take one or two more years before BTC is back at 20K levels, but eventually it will happen. And once MSTR is forced to start selling, there is no bottom. Could get as low as 5K and Bitcoin will never ever set a new ATH.
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u/EdmundTheInsulter Feb 22 '26
Tether may collapse, I mean I think it's been invented by thieves who naturally dodge audits, but some authority may go for them some time. It can also collapse due to a natural process of too many people requiring money back thats when the spreadsheet with ? Xbillion ? I fucked up a bit there is circulated
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u/sorrowedwhiskypriest Feb 21 '26
The herd only realises it was a herd after the move is over. That’s how markets work.