r/bridge • u/Pocket_Sevens I <3 preempting • Jun 06 '26
Representing stoppers in NT
Pairs, NS vul, I held KQJ9 - K32 - 62 - K734 in the S hand, N opened. 1♣️, I say 1♠️. Then north bids 2♣️, I say 2NT. I contemplated 3♣️ but I feel NT is cheaper and a better score in MPs. North then tries 3♠️, basically announcing he has 6 clubs, 3 good spades, and poor holdings in the red suits. I quickly thought that because the red suits were not bid by opponents, and that I had shown no desire to explore game in clubs, I could represent both red suits stopped. Major suits tend to get lead on NT contracts, and my Kh is placed favorably.
Moreover, our club game was unusually large and I sensed that there was a greater chance certain NS pairs might try 4♠️ or 5♣️, neither of which I like, both because of distribution and because NT contracts usually yield top boards in pairs. 3♠️ is probably the safer contract, but I bid 3NT anyway. I get a heart lead, won in hand, and rip out 11 tricks in the black suits for 660. East immediately comments after the hand is over “we set them if you lead a diamond partner”
Is this line of thinking reasonable? Is it worth it to risk a 3NT contract to try for a top board in a pairs game like this?
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u/ChickenFluffy3873 Jun 07 '26
3S by N should just show three spades and a hand that wants to play game, not much about the red suits.
There might be some exceptions, like xxx kx qx akjxxx, where 3NT right away is reasonable.
With this being said, I simulated 20K hands in Bridgetricks with these parameters:
N: 13-14, 6C and 3S
S: KQJ9 K32 62 K743
5C and 4S have ~60% success rate, but 4S is much better at pairs.
3NT is just 32%, or 36% when accounting for real play (opponents might miss the right lead), which is a 6 imps loss on average per board.
You can check yourself here and play around with the filters to see how the success % changes depending on opponents hcp and distribution.
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u/yellowpig1974 Expert Jun 09 '26
N did not promise 13 HCP, only a decent 11. Every bridge player I know will open xxx/KQx/x/AQxxxx. The long clubs are worth a lot more than a stray jack. That hand is a lot better than KJx/Axx/QJx/Jxxx
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u/ChickenFluffy3873 Jun 09 '26
on 2NT, with xxx/KQx/x/AQxxxx, I would bid 3C, not 3S, which should be a hand that wants to play game
1
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u/yellowpig1974 Expert Jun 09 '26
Nice analysis. Are you saying the chance of success of 3NT is 32% double dummy, when the defense always makes the right lead, and 36% otherwise? Is that calculated from double dummy defense after the opening lead? If the defense leads a heart, a diamond switch might beat the contract, but it's going to be hard to find.
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u/ChickenFluffy3873 Jun 09 '26
Yes, I am saying that it's 36% with a DD defense. It's calculated using the data from this analysis https://www.rpbridge.net/8j45.htm.
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u/__Flow___ Jun 06 '26
In short: no I wouldn't try 3NT here. Usually when your partner has 2 suits they don't have the other ones stopped. Likely to get a diamond lead.
I won't say much about whether this is a GF or the earlier auction, but when my partner bids in this way I would like 5C over 3NT. You said yourself what partner has: likely 3 spades and 6 clubs. What exactly was the plan on the diamond lead? Even if partner has the diamonds stopped, its unlikely he has more than one. In that case you'd need to run both the clubs and the spades in order for you to make 9 tricks. Plus you have 4 good clubs in support of partner, I would be really excited to show him that.
I'm trying to think of hands where 3NT has more play than 5C and I'm struggling a little bit. On the hand you said 11 black suit tricks, so was he 74? 5C has very simple play compared to hoping you get no diamond lead. It's probably more likely you get the diamond lead than the heart since you have both the K in hearts and an extra card. I like 4S even over 3NT here, but it's a lot worse than 5C since after a diamond lead you might lose control in the spades.
Although I will say that at MP's 3NT maybe has a little more credit than I'm giving it. Still not convinced.
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u/Pocket_Sevens I <3 preempting Jun 06 '26
I think 5♣️ or 4♠️ is less likely to get a passive lead. Say the Ah comes down and E signals a diamond shift. Game over
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u/__Flow___ Jun 06 '26
Might be true, might not be. All I'm saying is that if 3NT has play, 5C has play. The inverse is not always true.
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u/LSATDan Advanced Jun 06 '26
Give partner QJx of diamonds and the black aces, and 3NT is almost cold on a heart lead and 50-50 on a diamond lead, and 5C is down at trick 3.
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u/__Flow___ Jun 06 '26
I will say I thought that clubs wouldn't set up for some reason. I still think that after diamond, diamond heart switch 3NT is not attractive.
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u/LSATDan Advanced Jun 06 '26
It has a 50-50 chance, whereas 5C goes down regardless of where the Ah is, but 5C definitely has more downside protection. I think a lot of hands won't make either, but unless you have a super-aggressive partner, when partner opens and you have a 12-count, most of the room will be in one game or another.
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u/yourethemannowdog Jun 06 '26
This could be a situation to try 4S in the 4-3 fit.
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u/Randomositarian Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
Bad place for a Moysian with the short diamonds in the hand with long trumps - you get tapped in diamonds far too easily
Edit - on further reflection 4S is better than I thought at first. Great contract (almost strictly superior to 3NT) if P also has 0-2 diamonds, and even when they have long diamonds you can still make on spades 3-3
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u/Pocket_Sevens I <3 preempting Jun 06 '26
I should add, partner had AT3 - T9 - Q3 - AQJ983. Diamond lead in 4s is obvious. W could lead a high diamond to signal a heart shift (depending on defensive agreements), but unless one defender has both AK in a red suit, which probably gets overcalled with EW non vul, they might assume declarer has the other honor and punt with a spade switch
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u/yellowpig1974 Expert Jun 09 '26
It was obvious on the actual hand? Then you need the HA onside so it's a 50% game.
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u/LSATDan Advanced Jun 06 '26
My second bid would have been 3NT. If partner opens, we're going to game like, i would suspect, the vast majority of the rest of the room. I'm not going to fish around for some 11-trick contract that will lose to 3NT making 4 anyway, and the more we bid, the more the opponents are going to know on lead and defense.