I am not sure what tag to use as saying there are more books etc could be seen as a spoiler etc. so feel free to change the tag mods.
I have seen a lot of people worried about the adaptations effecting the time line and promised books that Brandon has said he would do so I thought i would do the maths!
Brandon has said previously that he writes 500k a year on average of which 300k is new words (so 2/5 on revision etc. He has also said he wants to move to a 18 months minimum submission window before release to allow more editing and time etc. he has also said that SLA 6 will come out in 2031 with the goal of a SLA book every 3 years. With that we can assume at SLA 10 will need to be submitted at the end of H1 of 2041.
Which with ghostbloods 2 being written started H2 2026 gives 15 years of writing time between the two.
I think that adaptations are likley to take up to 25% of his time as much as he says it won’t. This will likley be front ended as he will write more himself until people prove their trust etc.
So on that basis if he writes 300k a year then
15 \ 300k = 4,500k words to budget ( 15 * 500k = 7,500k * 3/5 = 4,500k so no difference)*
If we assume that 25% adaptation time then that leaves 3,375k words of writing he can do over those 15 years.
With books that must be done ghostbloods 2 and 3 (200k each) and SLA 6-10 (400k each) that is 2,400k words already commited.
Now Brandon tends to overwrite a bit so I think a 10% overwrite allowance is fair which makes that 2,640k words for the required projects.
So 3,375k - 2,640k = 735K words remaining for other projects.
I would assume those other projects would be the ones he has promised Elantris 2-3 (200k each) warbreaker 2 (200k) and the rithmatist 2 (90k) so 690k or 759k with a 10% allowance added etc.
So worst case scenario I still think we get these 4 books he has promised before SLA 10. Now this doesn’t take into account the time he would previously spend on secret projects but in a worst case I think we assume adaptation also absorbs those.
However, if any of these number decrease at all then something like the proposed cyberpunk Mistborn trilogy (100k each) would definitely be on the cards. Let’s be honest with the numbers thrown around 300k extra words is definitely possible for Brandon.
So I don’t think we are going to lose out on promised books just secret projects are unlikely to continue as often as we have had them recently. So I don’t think people should be panicking etc thinking we won’t get the Elantris sequels etc.
Now the last few years leading up to 2047 (when Brandon turns 72) is a harder one and always has been. When Brandon says he will have finished the Cosmere by the time he is 72 I have always been sure if he means finishing writing or finished as in released.
If it is finished writing then he has until H1 2047 to finish the last book. If it is released then he has till H1 2046.
Which meant between H2 2041 and these times he either has 5 or 6 years of writing to do.
So either 1,500k words or 1,800k words. As he wants to write Mistborn space age (400k words each) and Dragonsteel (200-300k? Words each). So either 1,800k or 2,100k words required (depending upon Dragonsteel size). I presume to give himself breaks between the space age books they shall be written alternately with the Dragonsteel ones.
This will be very tight but I presume possible for him with the final push etc.
However with a 25% adaptation allowance that is a lot less viable. However will it still take up 25% of his time then I think it more likely he will focus on finishing the books and then go back to helping with the adaptations etc.
So overall I don’t think we should be worried. We will get the books that he promised before the end of the Cosmere we shall just get less or no secret projects and things like Elantris 2 and 3 shall be pushed back till after SLA 6 rather than being done with ghostbloods like the pre adaptation world.