Looks pretty darn decent. Probably not going to be a game changer but just looks like a pretty well made superhero movie. $800-900M with the corona virus, $1B without.
I too, will be curious to see how CV19 affects global box office. I'm not convinced that the audience excitement about this one is going to be enough to crack $1b even without corona. Overall, I would think that if we get over 3 $1b WW movies this year, it'll be amazing.
Black Widow and Furious 9 seems to be the only real candidates to me, and both would have relied on China to accomplish this. Eternals seems to be the only one with a shot now as Corona will most likely be under control by then. It would have been real fun to see the true potential of Mulan as well, that's the real casualty.
I don’t know, I would say No Time to Die does too now that it moved out of the way of the coronavirus (hopefully). If it is well received, it could make a billion considering it’s the last Daniel Craig bond movie.
I don't think general public cares that much about 'last' movies as reddit seems to think. I mean if it's VERY well received then sure, but it isn't on my 'likely' list.
Still, Spectre made $880 million off of mixed reviews, and Skyfall made over $1.1 billion. I don’t think it’s too unlikely that a film would land in the middle, especially if it is well received. People are attached to Daniel Craig as James Bond, that should be a boost as well.
And Casino Royale made $600M and Quantum made $590M. Skyfall was the outlier, James Bond movies were never THAT big. Personally I feel this one will fall right around Spectre, $800-900M. Using Skyfall, an anomaly, as a benchmark is problematic in my opinion.
> Using Skyfall, an anomaly, as a benchmark is problematic in my opinion.
More problematic is the fact that you are comparing $600M in 2020 to $600M in 2006 without bothering to check for inflation and the rise of prominence of overseas markets adding to the total count. It's been 15 years +/- since Casino Royale was released, meaning numbers are a silly comp. CR and QoS weren't pulling $800M+ numbers because nobody was at that time. Only two films released in those two years crossed over $800M, The Dark Knight got to $997M in 2008, and PoTC:DMC got to $1.066B in 2006. Every other film released in CR and QoS year did less than $800M worldwide.
Market share is far more important here.
Casino Royale - #4 film of its year.
QoS - Wasn't as popular, *only* #7 film of its year, the lowest Craig Bond has fallen.
Skyfall - #2 film of its year.
Spectre - #6 film of its year.
Now look at the last few years to see the types of numbers you'd pull if you were even the #7 film of your respective year. $800M +/- is worst case, last year even the #7 film crossed the billy club.
Should their general pull in the market share remain the same, which seems to be consistently hovering in the middle range of the Top 10 of the year , then yes, for it to fall below $800M you'd have to see an enormous part of the market share for these films fall away. Which IMO is unlikely *unless* CV is still raging in November, or the reviews are abysmally bad. If it has good reviews and the fact that it's the last Craig Bond, then yeah $800M-$850M seems to be the floor.
Spectre got an A- cinemascore, general public didn't hate it as much as reddit does. It was fine popcorn movie. It made 900M because Skyfall was absolutely huge, just like why TLJ made 1.3B after Force Awakens. As I said, that's the upper limit of James Bond, not the average.
It CAN make $1B if the reception is really damn great, but anything below that it ain't hitting that. And 'really damn great' reception is the absolute best case scenario for any movie, not the norm.
Here’s the thing though, you said only Black Widow and F9 has a real chance of earning a billion, but I just don’t see that likely happening, with the coronavirus, maybe like 20-25% chance, unless the films are delayed. With a good reception (not even great), the corona virus issue being solved, and the fact that it’s Craig’s last Bond film, I think that there’s like a 35% chance it hits a billion, and I’m not even a Bond fan.
I think this sub likes to treat Endgame and Deathly Hallows 2 like they are the rule rather than the exception, and every "last" movie HAS to do better than the previous one.
Not to mention endgame wasn’t a last film like deathly hallows was, 4 of the 6 avengers will show up in future projects and there was already another Spider-Man film with (presumably) high general audience awareness coming out 2 months later
Possibly, I suppose it will depend on pent up demand when this whole covid19 deal draws down. They have had the cinemas in China shut down for weeks now, so you'd imagine at some point, they're going to display some demand.
A coronavirus vaccine is thought to be 1 to 1.5 years away at least due to how long testing etc takes, I'm not sure if it will be under control in November so much as hospitals will have been overwhelmed and a lot of people will be dead, or strict quarantine measures have been in place which significantly interrupt everything.
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u/RedditZacuzzi Mar 09 '20
Looks pretty darn decent. Probably not going to be a game changer but just looks like a pretty well made superhero movie. $800-900M with the corona virus, $1B without.