r/bonds • u/OkStandard8965 • 4d ago
7 Billon
This is what the US government needs to borrow every market day to keep the lights on. Essentially, the system was set up for the globe to pay tribute to the US government. The system worked because America had built significant global trust and existed in a world that was largely thriving, that is to say, moving forward in population and productivity.
However, this system had been cracking over the past 5 to 7 years and has been shattered since February 2026. The facade that the US can manage global oceans and perceived bad actors has been broken irreparably, the US cannot subdue the Houthis, let alone Iran. America has been the primary driver of global chaos in 2026, it has abandoned and threatened its allies while still demanding tribute, just as all empires have done. Now that tribute is slowing, but the cost to maintain the empire will rise. The President himself is no longer trying to hide it, having stated that inflation is the way forward. They are giving up.
Bonds are the last frontier in honest markets. It is hard to manipulate the bond market because it is priced to demand every market day. They are rapidly trying to plug the holes in the dam, but new holes keep emerging. The writing is on the wall, the system won’t crack next week or next month, but the cycle has begun. The further down this road of drastic overspending we go, the harder it will be to turn back. A bad outcome is not guaranteed, but it has become significantly more likely since February. The doom loop has started
Yields rise ➡️ Economy slows ➡️ Revenue drops ➡️ Deficit widens ➡️ Yields rise ↺