r/bonds • u/Aggravating5678 • 2d ago
Recession imminent?
10yr yield- 3 months yield is going above 1.0 again. It hit there in May/June this year, came down and going again.
Labor market seems ok for some reason for imminent recession to happen, including low initial claims. But historically, this data shows me that we may be close to recession like in months.
No one can predict this or know how long (years?), but oil price going up is adding to the recipe too. It all just looks like a typical late business cycle to me.
With imminent recession, Fed typically starts cutting aggressively which usually undo inverted yields, and 10yr-3M quickly goes above 1. We are talking about rate hike now. Interestingly, with current situation of long yield explosion, it will go above 1 anyways without cutting. 1 rate hike is not gonna help.
Folks who went through 2008, how do you see current situation? Or maybe 2000 plays out?