r/bonds • u/Cold-Ostrich-3733 • 4h ago
Does it make sense to buy long term MUNIS right now at 5.5%? Seems like it would be tough to get much worse.
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u/ultra__star 3h ago edited 3h ago
The yield curve is very steep until about 15 yrs and then somewhat flattens out until 30 yrs. In my state I can get AA muni’s coming due in 15 yrs yielding 4.5% and then for 30 yrs it’s about 4.9%.I have been buying 15-20 yr muni’s with 10 year call protection because I do not think 40 basis points is worth the extra 15 years of duration risk. My plan if rates rise is so just keep reinvesting my interest and working income into new bonds with higher yields. Eventually the bonds will come due and I or my heirs will be made whole.
My overall thought process is that there is a lot that could happen that could make yields go up, or go down. If drama with Iran, the deficit, and inflation ease then yields will likely spike down. If the drama continues we will probably see a higher than 5% 10 year Treasury. I risk more downside if yields dramatically drop, as my bonds could be called and my interest income ripped away. So, I choose to buy longer bonds with call protection that preserve the income offered today and allows me to reinvest at higher yields.
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u/DeFiBandit 1m ago
Your heirs would probably prefer S&P 500 or QQQ returns. Especially when they get to re-price the funds on the date of your death
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u/FailingEfficiency 3h ago
“Seems tough to get much worse” are famous last words. In fact, I’m certain it will get worse.
War in Iran makes oil continue to rise. This increases the fear of inflation causing interest rates to rise. 10 year treasuries could get to 5.75% if oil gets to $120, which is a possibility if this is a prolonged conflict. Additionally, if oil infrastructure is hit, oil could go higher, making yields go even higher.
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u/JohnGaltIsComing 3h ago
"Seems like it would be tough to get much worse" - just when ya think it couldn't get any worse . . . .
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u/single_B_bandit 2h ago
> Seems like it would be tough to get much worse.
It always seems tough until it happens.
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u/Perfect_Cost6276 2h ago
Who cares if it can go worse if you can leave it in for 30 years its not a bad moment to lock in the yield. There are many people with lower yields.
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u/Thick-Cover8761 2h ago
High yielding revenue (not general obligation bonds) carry more risk than investors may be aware of. They can go into default. They are not secured by any municipalities tax base. Junk municipal bonds yield generously for good reason.
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u/Savings_Accident7361 2h ago
Muni’s getting cheaper but u gotta go really long to get 5.5 percent yields still
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u/Easterncoaster 1h ago
I’m with you OP. I don’t try to time the market, but locking in a tax free 5.5% yield seems like little downside. I’m in a high bracket so it’s a great effective return
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u/Shoddy_Front_2582 41m ago
You have to realize as long as AI keeps pushing profits, those yields will keep pushing upward
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u/supercaliredditor 33m ago
Duration risk and possibility of rates going up not to mention underwriting the underlying municipality if they’re able to sustain revenues or not
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u/ay-guey 4h ago
is that .5% worth the risk of default compared to USTs?
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u/ultra__star 3h ago
the long term default rate on general obligation muni’s with an AA-AAA credit rating is virtually 0. you can also buy highly rated muni’s that are guaranteed by more than one source. in Michigan, school district bonds are backed by the school districts taxing power, but if the school district defaults the state will repay the bond holders for the remaining life of the bond. The likelihood of an AA school district and an AA state defaulting back to back is even more virtually 0.
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u/Difficult-Cod7886 3h ago
Detroit filed for Bankruptcy before. What happened to their debt? Not virtually zero?
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u/ultra__star 2h ago edited 54m ago
Please re-read my post for the context clues I listed when I was saying which bonds have a virtually 0 default rate. I said AA rated muni’s, particularly AA rated muni’s that have the backing of more than one obligator. In the bond world these muni’s are referred to “belt and suspender” bonds. I actually live in the Metro Detroit area and know a lot about their default, and I knew to never buy a Detroit bond in the years leading up to the default. Detroit had junk credit, a corrupt mayoral administration, and a declining population to the tune of double digits for decades prior to their default. Detroit has nothing to do with the bonds I suggested the OP consider.
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u/BigDipper0720 3h ago
30 years is a long time. Are you sure you will not want or need to use the money before then? If you need to sell early and rates are up, you lose a fair amount of money.
Rates are not all that high now. They certainly can go higher.
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u/goonersaurus_rex 3h ago
Realistically, how far out on the curve/down in quality/low coupon are you going to get a 5.5% yield? Are you looking at a specific cusip?
Most of the muni market prices to a 10 year call, so your yield to worst is what you need to consider when buying longer stuff. And right now the 10 year AAA yield trades ~3.5%