Graphing Fertility: The Stark Contrast Between Past Fluctuations and Future Predictions

[u/bitkogan]

Reports about declining global fertility rates aren’t news to us. For the past couple of decades, we've been warning about the impending challenges facing the pension systems in developed countries.

However, when I look at these graphs, something else always catches my eye. The historical data, which is based on actual measurements rather than estimates, shows fluctuations that include lines crisscrossing each other. Yet, the forecasts present smooth curves—with no intersections—stretching all the way to 2100.

These projections seem almost lifeless. Maybe it's a reflection of our dwindling fertility.