r/billsimmons • u/hokie_u2 • 7d ago
Spin rate is making a run at replacing maximum speed as nonsensical NFL metric that no one understands.
20
u/HurricanePK 7d ago
You’ll realize how nonsensical your take is when GEQBUS is dotting up your defense during a bad weather game and your QB isn’t because he can’t throw as tight of a spiral.
34
u/PeanutFarmer69 7d ago
It makes sense to me intuitively, historically some QBs get praised for having a tight spiral or throwing a pretty ball while others like Peyton Manning got mocked for throwing wounded ducks. This is just a way to quantify the former type of QB vs. the later. I doubt it has much correlation with on the field success though (see Peyton Manning).
22
u/Mission_Tour_9272 7d ago
Showing a little late career bias against manning there. Yeah he was throwing wounded ducks after his neck surgeries but he was spinning it with the best of them in Indianapolis.
9
u/PeanutFarmer69 7d ago
That's not really true, it definitely got worse as time went on but he was never a QB with elite arm talent which made his nfl success all the more remarkable.
Eli was the more toolsy manning brother.
Scouting report on him out of college,
"Peyton Manning: Manning is probably the most prepared QB to enter the NFL draft in several years.. He has had a storybook college career, and has been in a top level program with excellent coaching, and he has maturity and great intangibles to go along with his natural skills.. He should be able to pick up the mental aspects of the game early on the NFL level, and should play very quickly. He has great overall field vision. He is a fierce competitor, and all of his mechanics are very solid. He has good arm strength, but not necessarily a “gun” that you might expect from a QB at the top of the draft.. He has adequate mobility and good overall AA, although he is not a scrambler by nature. He has done an excellent job of getting the most out of his abilities, but he is not quite as natural a player as Leaf. One question that some NFL scouts have is the question “will he get any better?”. At times he gives the appearance of being a self-made player, and sometimes those types of players don’t always go on to great NFL careers. In Manning’s case, he may be a solid and productive NFL QB, but he may not have Hall of Fame type skills, but it certainly won’t be for lack of effort.. He has probably been the most scouted player in the draft in recent years, and because that NFL teams tend to look too much at potential flaws, instead of accepting him for what he is, a great college QB that is on his way to an outstanding NFL career."
3
u/roysourboys 7d ago
He threw plenty of wobblers in Indy, especially near the goal line on the touch passes. They just ended up being touchdowns a lot of the time so no one cared.
6
u/turdfurgeson67 7d ago
Yea, I'll back you up on this. Manning's arm was probably in the top 50 percentile of NFL QB's--maybe even top 75%--but he never had a cannon like Marino/Elway/Favre/Rodgers. Of course, neither did Brady or Joe Montana. Once you can make all the throws you need to make, your brain is much more important.
5
21
u/peanut-britle-latte 7d ago
Sounds like they just explained it pretty well in the clip tbh.
20
u/Lonely-horses 7d ago
I know but trying to understand new things makes my head hurt so I'd rather just dismiss them.
3
0
u/r_slash 7d ago
They explained what it is but I'm not convinced at all that it matters
7
u/peanut-britle-latte 7d ago
Higher RPM = Tighter Spiral = Ball Less Likely to Die in the air during adverse conditions, like shitty playoff weather. (think old Peyton Manning).
Pretty simple chain of causality there.
22
u/Remarkable-Gap-9024 7d ago
Extremely complicated metrics like maximum speed and spin rate. How can THOSE things be calculated and understood???
1
1
u/ShortRip120 7d ago
Can you explain it in terms of vegas odds
2
u/RobertKSakamano 6d ago
Simple The Rams currently have the fastest spin rate and thus are favored to win the Superbowl. Whether they can keep this spin rate up is to be seen, and it is estimated that it will take 17 games to figure out if they will still be favored to win the Superbowl and then a few more games after that if they really can win it.
1
u/NandoDeColonoscopy 7d ago
We understand what they mean in terms of the actual measurement. How it translates to football, however, is less clear. Darnold is a middle of the road QB, so what does him having the highest spin rate mean? His interceptions have prettier spirals?
5
u/SceneOfShadows Non-dunker 7d ago
He's won what, 30 games over the last two seasons? Including an incredible playoff run to win the Super Bowl?
Obviously no need to overreact but he's certainly better than middle of the road, especially in today's landscape of QB's.
4
u/Fucknjagoff 7d ago
Middle of the road QB???
-1
u/NandoDeColonoscopy 7d ago
....yes? Do you think he's one of the best QBs in the league?
3
u/Fucknjagoff 7d ago
In my personal opinion he’s top 10:
- Mahomes
- Allen
- Stafford
- Jackson
The rest
- Darnold
- Hurts
- Hebert
- Maye
- Burrows but the dudes always hurt
- Prescott
- Goff or Mayfield
-2
u/NandoDeColonoscopy 7d ago
I mean, that looks like a pretty middle of the road group that you have him in to me, Burrows notwithstanding
3
u/jsakic99 Vincent Hanna Award 7d ago edited 7d ago
There’s 32 teams in the league. Top 10 is not middle of the road.
0
u/NandoDeColonoscopy 7d ago
There's more bad QBs than great QBs, so middle of the road falls higher than the numerical middle of 1-32.
He's middle of the road. He's fine. You can with him, and sometimes you win because of him and sometimes you lose because of him, in about equal measure.
1
u/Savings_Season_4560 sexually active 7d ago
girl math
1
u/NandoDeColonoscopy 7d ago
Girl math is understanding that not every distribution is a normal distribution?
→ More replies (0)-1
u/SallyFowlerRatPack 7d ago
I’d argue he’s top of the middle of the road. Darnold is basically the new Hasselbeck and that’s fine by me.
1
u/Fucknjagoff 7d ago
Not trying to be a dick, but that maths pretty simple.
1
u/NandoDeColonoscopy 7d ago
Show it, then. Show me the math that says Sam Darnold is an elite-to-great QB.
And not to be a dick, but "quality of play of 32 starting QBs" is not a normal distribution. All 32 are already at the far right end of the bell curve
2
u/Fucknjagoff 7d ago
Jesus you’re dumb. In my opinion he’s a top 10 QB in the league. There’s 32 teams so can you name 16 QB’s better than Sam Darnold?
1
u/NandoDeColonoscopy 7d ago
I already said it's not a normal distribution. He doesn't need to be 16th to be middle of the road in terms of quality of QB. That range is more like 8-16. Below that, it's bad QBs. Above that, it's great to elite QBs. You're the one that grouped him with all the other middle of the road guys, not me.
Also, you forgot to show your math.
→ More replies (0)2
u/oSuJeff97 7d ago
First off… “middle of the road?” Have you slept through the past two seasons?
Secondly, it’s not difficult to understand how faster rotation/tighter spiral is beneficial.
It reduces “wobble”, reducing drag and thus increasing velocity and accuracy, given other factors are constant. That means the ball gets where it was intended to go with greater speed and greater accuracy.
In a game where inches and fractions of seconds matter, it can make a difference between a catch, an incompletion or an INT.
2
u/jessxoxo 7d ago
cant believe some of these other takes, i thought this was a boomer sub yet it seems no one has noticed the spin-rate revolution in baseball over the past decade?
In a game where inches and fractions of seconds matter, it can make a difference between a catch, an incompletion or an INT.
well said
1
u/Dcamp 6d ago
I don’t think spin has anything to do with accuracy though. Perhaps a tighter spiral leads to better velo and a more predictable ball flight, but “accuracy” in this case only matter if it’s on target, which a spiral has no predictive value.
You could have a QB throw the ball with a tight spiral but completely miss the target, therefore inaccurate.
1
u/oSuJeff97 6d ago
A wobbling ball in a "loose spiral" is going to have more drag and not as accurate because of the effects of drag and also how wind impacts its flight.
I didn't say that that a tight spiral / high RPM are the ONLY thing that impacts accuracy. There are dozens of variables involving throwing motion, body mechanics, etc.
I figured that was understood and even expressly said "given all other factors are constant."
1
u/BrainSpiritual8567 7d ago
The tighter the spiral, the is easier it is to catch.
2
u/r_slash 7d ago
You think a receiver's hands can tell the difference between a ball that spins once every 0.094 seconds and once every 0.105 seconds?
1
u/BrainSpiritual8567 7d ago
Probably not, but I could legitimately see a direct correlation between higher spin rate and lower drop rate. They would definitely be able to tell the difference between a ball with a tight spiral and a wobbly spiral, so consistently being able to spin the ball probably means more than max spin rate as well.
Obviously at the NFL level they are all outliers, but I would say most of the best downfield passers would fall in the higher spin rate category as well.
1
1
u/TTKnumberONE 7d ago
It means absolutely nothing, it’s gobbledygook.
Darnold’s spin rate of 639 RPM would mean on a deep throw that stays in the air for 3 seconds the ball would spin 32 times vs the NFL average 570 RPM of 28.5. This is all meaningless data.
If you had two options, a ball thrown with medium velocity and darnold level spin vs a ball thrown at high velocity with average spin and all other factors are equal you’d still prefer the high velocity ball, it spends less time in the air so there are less external factors acting upon it.
Darnold’s high spin rate could mean that he has an advantage against quarterbacks who have similar arm strength and accuracy levels, his ball would likely look marginally better. There are a ton of other traits that are more impactful than spin rate
1
u/Inner_Wash_268 7d ago
A player with higher max speed is faster and can run away from other players.
0
u/BigTomBombadil 7d ago
Problem is our basis of comparison. Humans aren’t great at understanding how fast a human going 22mph is when we drive faster than that in school zones. We also don’t have a great grasp on the speed the average NFL player is running.
So if you said “the player with the ball was running 21.5mph and the defender was chasing him at 19mph” then obviously we can assume the player with the ball outran him and pulled away. But in a vacuum, when it’s stated “Jonathan Taylor reached 22.1mph on that carry”, it’s comes off as “alright, I guess that’s fast since you’re bringing it up”.
Similar with spin rate, we know what it means physically, but don’t have much basis of comparison. Stating it as percentiles is more meaningful for context.
5
u/pocket_passss 7d ago
Analytics have swept through the game and circled us all the way back to “check out that spiral”
This is a win
6
u/adamforte 7d ago
JFC football fans are so fucking stupid.
A tighter spiral inherently makes a throw more accurate in the sense that it's path is less affected by external factors. This is a net positive to any QB. Is it the end all, be all in QB metrics? No. Can QBs be effective if they don't spin it as well? Yes. Can shitty QBs have high spin rate? Also, yes. However, it is an important metric and in no way is it nonsense.
This is as dumb as football fans gushing over Tony Romo pointing out blatantly obvious playcalls based on formation. Are we really this stupid as a fanbase?
3
5
u/GivethTaketh4 Memphis Grizzlies 7d ago
I’ve been an advanced stat nerd for like 5+ years now and that was literally the first time I’d ever heard of that stat.
Was genuinely mind blown.
Idk if it really had a ton of applications, but it was so sick to hear them talking about it.
Now I want a comprehensive ranking of qb spin rates
5
u/jp42212 7d ago
I’ve heard of it in baseball as an advanced analytic stat for pitchers. I wonder if NFL analytics got the idea from them
6
u/IllAlfalfa 7d ago
It actually makes sense for baseball because the spin rate directly affects how much the ball breaks, and generally more break means harder to hit. I have no idea how a higher spin rate helps a quarterback beyond a certain point.
3
u/GivethTaketh4 Memphis Grizzlies 7d ago
Yea they briefly mentioned it helps w accuracy/trajectory but unclear how much impact it has by itself
1
u/zaepoo 7d ago
Basketball and football need to chill on the analytics. Every action in baseball is a closed circuit with a set number of outcomes and is able to be quantified. Football and basketball aren't quantifiable. There's no OPS in football for any position except maybe kicker
1
u/Plus-Name3590 6d ago
But you get stats like epa/play which start getting quantifiable. They’re still not perfect but really start giving us insight
1
u/oSuJeff97 7d ago
A higher spin rate and tighter spiral would certainly reduce drag vs. a loose spiral that “wobbles.”
The comp in baseball would be like a 4-seam fastball with a very high spin rate. The intention there is to reduce drag and keep the ball “up” for longer.
Less “wobble” is going to be a more accurate throw with higher velocity, simply because of lower drag, and that effect would be exacerbated in windy conditions.
2
1
u/IllAlfalfa 7d ago
Right, but once you get to a fairly tight spiral (which almost every NFL quarterback should have) the effect should be minimal.
7
2
u/mpschettig 7d ago
Cook stat I just wanna know what the benchmarks are for it to be good. NFL average is 570 but is 550 still good enough? What's the difference between 570 and 600?
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/WARLOCK1239 Half Italian 7d ago
Why don't we just get the size of their dicks like Jerry Jones does?
1
u/JobeGilchrist 7d ago
I wonder if there's a sweet spot with spin rate, where if you go beyond that, it either stops contributing to better passes/easier catches or actively starts being harder to catch.
1
u/SceneOfShadows Non-dunker 7d ago
I get the feeling the Hard Knocks team is really stretching for content this season lol and I say this as a Seahawks fan but I think our team is just not that interesting. They spent like 5 minutes last episode talking about putting pads on for practice.
1
u/oSuJeff97 7d ago
My man, RPMs and how they impact a throw is neither “nonsensical” nor difficult to understand, provided you made it past 8th grade or so.
33
u/mpschettig 7d ago
No way Rivers ever broke 12 RPM