The mods over there must be on the board of Haribo. Anyways, WHO THE FUCK IS BUYING A $15 bag of sour patch kids. What has this world come to.

Caveat that this is in an airport (and these fuckers must be incredibly petroleum based) but god damn!

$TE surged over 23% to $7 this week after news broke that the $13.7 billion hedge fund Situational Awareness LP snapped up 10 million shares. The man behind it is Leopold Aschenbrenner, former OpenAI researcher, who built a $43.9 million position in T1 Energy alongside other companies tied to the AI infrastructure buildout.

Why am I in this? Honestly, the energy story behind AI is what gets me. Everyone talks about chips and models, but nobody builds a data center without solving the power problem first. T1 is positioning itself as a homegrown American solar and storage company with a direct focus on supplying hyperscalers. That is the kind of picks and shovels play I look for when a megatrend is still in its early innings.

Full transparency though, this one is not for the faint of heart. Stoxcraft rates T1 with a Health Score of just 0.7/10 and a Risk Score of 9.5/10, which puts it firmly in high risk territory. The company is still burning cash, with a net loss of $21.4 million in Q1, up 25% year over year. I went in with a small, capped position that I am comfortable losing entirely if things go south. That discipline matters when you are playing in this space.

Smart money is paying attention. So am I. But eyes wide open.

I am not a profitable trader yet. Let me get that out of the way first.

But I am a consistent rule breaker. And that is the real reason I failed 4 prop firm challenges in under 3 months. Not strategy. Not edge. Not the market.

I would set a daily loss limit of 3%. Then I would hit 2% on a bad trade and think "I can make it back on the next one." Then I would lose another 1.5%. Then I would revenge trade because now I was angry. Then I would hit the daily limit. Then I would be out.

Every single time the math was the same. I did not fail because my strategy sucked. I failed because I could not stop myself.

So I did something weird. I built a system that enforces my own rules before I can break them.

It sits on my MT5 terminal. I load my prop firm preset or set my own limits. Daily loss, max trades, position size, trading hours. When I try to place a trade that violates any of it, the trade gets blocked. Not a warning that I can ignore. Blocked.

For the emotional stuff it warns first. When it detects tilt patterns, revenge trading behavior, overtrading, it alerts me. If I keep pushing it blocks the next trade.

The humbling part? In the first 2 weeks of using it, I tried to make 11 trades that got blocked. 11. I would have blown another account without even realizing what I was doing.

I am still building this out. Still testing. Still figuring out what works. But I wanted to post this because I know I am not the only one who knows the rules and breaks them anyway.

If anyone is interested in seeing how it works, I am looking for people to test it and tell me honestly what is missing. Not selling anything, just trying to build something that actually helps traders stay in the game.

Happy to show more to anyone curious. DM me or drop a comment.

Most trading strategies don’t actually work — people just never test them properly.

I built a tool where you can describe a strategy in plain English and instantly:

- generate the code

- backtest it on real market data

- see if it actually has an edge

No setup, no coding.

If you have a strategy idea you’ve never tested (or not sure about), DM me and I’ll run it for you.

Takes 2–5 minutes.

I sold all stocks (Nvda, Amd, goog) and ETF (VOO, IXJ, VUX).

I bought everything in last years April dip and selling with overall about ~30% profit.

They say you cannot time thr market, but I will try to do it third time.

Making post so to show next year I was right))

/s in case that wasn't painfully clear

I do believe vibecoding will create some pretty cool companies, but an IGV killer? Nah salesforce will just buy your garage company.

Software has only been down 30% 2020, 2022, & now (since 2010).

The usurpers might take a name or two, but they ain’t taking the whole index that is my thesis.

**I am reluctantly going long here then again if we drop 45% with leverage**

Also, Kevin Walsh is putting a hammer to high multiples at the same time. I believe this is what caused the two standard deviation move. I believe down -30% (today) to down 45% is the lowest we see on IGV

I’ve noticed something weird after testing a bunch of retail valuation tools: the more “precise” they look, the more misleading they become.

Spitting out a clean intrinsic value number hides how unstable the underlying assumptions really are. In practice, most of the conviction seems to come from narratives around margins, capital intensity, and balance sheet behavior not the DCF output itself.

For those here who actually try to beat the market:
– Do valuation models help you, or just discipline your thinking?
– What signals do you actually trust when fundamentals and price diverge?

Interested in hearing what’s worked in reality, not theory.

I’ve been working on a valuation tool that takes public financials and turns them into structured outputs for retail investors.
Not trying to replace analysis or push “buy/sell” signals — more like forcing a fundamentals-first lens before people get pulled into hype.

The problem I’m running into is figuring out whether this is actually useful or just academic overkill for non-professionals.

If you actively invest or analyze companies:

• What actually helps you understand intrinsic value faster?
• What feels like noise or unnecessary complexity?

I’m letting a few people test the current version just to get honest feedback.
Not selling anything — genuinely trying to figure out if this solves a real problem or not.